The Independence of Natural Gas

Natural gas demand is on the increase globally due to a series of factors. According to the IEA (International Energy Agency) the fossil fuel is about to enter a golden age on the back of predictions that it will make up to a quarter of the world’s energy supply by 2035 as well as a “quick fix” for climate change.

The western countries energy watchdog (IEA) is predicting that natural gas is moving towards independence by becoming a truly global market over the next two decades. But according to Javier Blas from the Financial Times the commodity is far way from globalisation.

Despite being hooked to oil prices, like in continental Europe, natural gas prices varies substantially around the world. In America natural gas prices are below 3 per mBtu (million British thermal units) while in continental Europe it gets close to 6 per mBtu, over 7 per mBtu in Asia and around 60 pence per therm (Monday’s pricing) here in the UK.

The first step towards globalisation is to create a global unit for the commodity, like the oil industry has the barrels. We can’t have a globalised gas market if countries use different measuring units, like the mBtu used in America and the therm used here in the UK.

Second, pricing systems in key regions like continental Europe and Asia need to proclaim independence from oil in order to reflect the real supply and demand fundamentals of the commodity. Right now natural gas supply and demand fundamentals are anchored to those of the oil market.

The natural gas market needs to adopt the gas-to-gas pricing mechanism used by the US, Australia and the UK which is based on shorter-term contracts and not related to oil prices.

If natural gas is to become totally independent from oil those are the initial steps but more commitment is needed from exporters, importers and regulatory trading bodies to turn it into a truly independent traded commodity.

UK Gas prices

UK wholesale gas prices dropped to its lowest levels in nine months on the back of high LNG supply and low demand for this time of year.

Day-ahead prices traded at 58.75 pence per therm on Monday, down 15 pence from previous session and winter 2011/12 gas contract fell 0.20 pence to 71.45 pence per therm, while winter 2012/13 was down 0.30 pence at 73.50 pence. Good news for businesses who buy long term business gas contracts.

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Gas Prices To Go Up 25pc Due To Extra Oil Tax

Extra Oil Tax Cuts Down Profits of Oil and Gas Companies – During the 2011 Budget pronouncement, Chancellor George Osborne announced that the supplementary charge tax on UK oil and gas production was to be increased from 20pc to 32pc. Up until now oil and gas companies operating in the North Sea were rather quiet about the tax surge but have recently made public that their profits were slashed and energy and gas prices will rise.

The tax increase brought even more insecurity to the unstable UK energy industry. Big suppliers like British Gas owner Centrica, have already warned it may partially shut the UK’s biggest gas field as a result of the tax.

Last Wednesday, 4th of May, CEO’s of Britain’s largest oil and gas suppliers tried to persuade the Government to abandon a £10bn tax grab on North Sea energy companies, amid warnings the levy will “utterly destroy” the industry.

Speaking to the government’s cross-party Energy and Climate Change Select Committee industry representatives threatened that 30,000 jobs are at risk due to the uncertainty raised by the windfall tax.

The Energy Minister, Chris Hune and Justine Greening, Economic Secretary at the Treasury who were also at the hearing stated that the effect on jobs is pure speculation, because the impact on investment was not yet known

According to Greening, George Osborne used the independent Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) analysis to calculate the tax and concluded that the effect in investment will be minor.

Writing for the Telegraph, Andrew Lilico, Economist with Europe Economics, and a member of the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee said that claims by oil and gas companies that it is going to shut down the North Sea are just silly.

First, let’s remember that Petroleum Revenue Taxation (PRT), including the “supplementary charge” on corporation tax that Osborne raised, isn’t like taxes on widgets or socks or ice cream. It isn’t, as with most taxes, a matter of the government confiscating a portion of someone’s property to use for government purposes (worthy or not). No – it’s the Queen’s oil, not the oil company’s. PRT is simply the way that the oil company pays the Crown for the right to take away and sell that oil. It’s an alternative to a royalty, and can be thought of in much the same way. – Andrew Lilico

It is widely known that tax increases reduces incentives to invest and cut down profit margins from companies affected by the scheme. One way or another, companies find a way to pass this to the end customer in order to minimise the effects on their profit margin.

Centrica has already stated that wholesale gas price for delivery next winter has gone up 25pc because of the jump in commodity prices but has not yet been passed on to customers.

What baffles me about all this is that over the past two year when Brent crude oil prices surged from $80 to $125 a barrel and the profit of these Oil and Gas companies nearly doubled, they kept quiet and even managed to increase oil and gas prices due to one reason or another.

Let’s not forget that the majority of the oil and gas being explored today in the North Sea is fruit of investment planning made a little over a decade ago when oil prices were around $10 per barrel. So to say that a 32pc supplementary charge will shut down the North Sea with Oil prices at $100 per barrel is frankly absurd.

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Energy Market Report May 2011

Our monthly analysis of the UK gas and power markets is now available on line for the month of May 2011. The service is intended to keep you up to date with all the major news in Europe’s gas and power markets. It is also designed to keep power executives focused on market activity in an easy to digest format.

Your find our May 2011 report here and all historical energy reports can be located here.

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Never Have So Many Factors Influenced UK Gas Prices

Back in the days when British North Sea natural gas reserves were at full throttle Britain use to be self sufficient for natural gas. In those days only a couple of factors had major influence in UK gas prices, they were weather and demand, the golden days as many energy brokers referred it. Nowadays the UK gas and energy market has grown more complex with several factors influencing prices on a daily basis.

In 1998 the first gas pipeline between UK and continental Europe was opened which automatically hooked British gas prices to European oil indexed prices. That was when British prices started to be influenced by marginal factors.

This is how it works. When crude oil prices rose, so did natural gas prices for continental Europe and consequently the UK, because of pipeline connections to Europe. Since UK gas prices aren’t completely hooked up to European oil indexed gas prices, gas in the UK becomes cheaper than in continental Europe and European gas traders end up buying gas from the UK. That is when the demand in increased and UK gas suppliers put their prices up to stop the flow to continental Europe and to contain the price surge in the UK gas market.

One factor that recently started to play an important role in the British gas and energy market was LNG imports. Liquefied Natural Gas imports brought a global component to business and commercial gas prices. Predictions are that in a few years time the UK will be importing as much as 50% of its total gas supply needs from LNG which will make UK gas prices compete with American and Asian markets.

The biggest issue with LNG imports is where to store it. Britain is lacking LNG import terminals but the issue is being addressed with two new large terminals under construction in Wales and the expansion of the Isle of Grain should increase UK’s LNG storage capacity considerably.

Commercial and business gas prices continue to be influenced by weather and demand but as afore mentioned not as much as it use to. Proof to that is what happened the past winter, when temperatures were way below seasonal average pushing gas for heating consumption to extremely high levels and instead of going up wholesale gas prices dropped.

As if energy brokers didn’t have enough to worry about, two new factors are concerning energy brokers across the land. It first started with the turmoil in Egypt that extended to Libya which made crude oil prices surge over the $120 US Dollar mark, causing a rally in the UK gas market. As a consequence UK gas prices climbed to its highest levels in more than 21 months.

The second factor that is taking away the sleep of UK energy brokers is the earthquake and tsunami that devastated part of the eastern coast of Japan. You may ask why? The answer is simple, Japan is the biggest LNG importer and a reduction in its nuclear energy generation increases the likelihood of LNG tankers being diverted from the UK to Japan, as the second biggest Japanese energy generation resource is gas power plants.

As you can see the UK Energy and Gas Market are more complex than what many people think. Now imagine you having to watch all those factors in order to find the cheapest business gas and business energy prices for you company. You wouldn’t have time to focus on what really matters for your business. That is why when it comes down to finding the best deals in gas or energy it’s best to leave it to the professionals: Energy Brokers.

If you would like more information on our range of energy services or would simply like to find out how this could benefit your business, simply call our energy team today on 0870 710 7560 or request a call back at time to suit.

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IEA and IMF Announcements Pulled Oil Prices Down

At the start of the session on Monday Brent crude oil was being traded above $127 per barrel and dipped below $125.50 later in the same session, after Saudi Arabia assured it can pump more oil if needed and hopes of a peace settlement in Libya. On Tuesday prices continued to drop after announcement of the IEA and the IMF that crude prices above the $100 are starting to hurt global economy.

The International Energy Agency report showed that high prices are already starting to dent oil demand while the IMF Economic Outlook predicted that US and Japan economies will expand at a slower pace than previously predicted. As both countries are the first and third largest oil consumers the report had a direct impact in oil prices that slid as much as $4 from Monday to Tuesday.

At the time of writing Brent Crude oil prices were being traded at $123.56 after falling as much as $2.01, or 1.6 %, to $121.97 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.

Falling oil prices dragged UK gas prices with it and Winter 2011/12 gas eased trading at 73.50 pence per therm and despite a disruption in supply from Norway where a gas field was shut down due to a gas leak, spot gas prices also backed a little and where trade at 59.00 pence per therm thanks to strong LNG supply.

May gas contracts prices also registered a slightly reduction and were traded at 61.30 pence per therm down 0.10 pence while prices for the third quarter fell nearly half a penny to 64.30 pence.

Despite a secured line of LNG tankers already on its way to Britain gas brokers are concerned LNG terminals won’t be able to compensate further supply disruptions.

Backed by lower gas prices, OTC (over-the-counter) energy prices also fell with the MWh being sold at 50.90 pounds, 85p lower than previous sessions. The restart and reintegration to the grid of Hartlepool 1 nuclear reactor on Monday also influenced lower energy prices.

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Energy Market Report April 2011

Our monthly analysis of the UK gas and power markets is now available on line for the month of April 2011. The service is intended to keep you up to date with all the major news in Europe’s gas and power markets. It is also designed to keep power executives focused on market activity in an easy to digest format.

Your find our April 2011 report here and all historical energy reports can be located here.

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Should Britain Turn its Back on Nuclear?

The catastrophic events in Japan that led to Fukushima’s nuclear crisis made the world review their concepts about nuclear energy generation. What once was seen as an effective way to generate carbon free electricity is now being questioned about its safety that will sure comprise its economical viability.

What happened at Fukushima’s nuclear power plant caused deep wounds on the nuclear industry, forcing governments in every corner of the globe to review their nuclear development policies.

As countries around the globe start to decarbonise their economies, nuclear power is seen universally as a vital and cost effective carbon free energy generating resource. But new safety policies and other costs for new and existing nuclear power plants could turn nuclear power less economic or even uneconomic.

The nuclear industry has a strong safety record and there is no reason to believe that this cannot be maintained into the future but events in Japan have changed these parameters. Although we don’t have a detailed report of what happened at Fukushima nuclear power plant further improvements on the current high safety levels will sure be implemented and required by new nuclear power plants.

This leads us to the question: “Is it safe for Britain to go on building new nuclear plants?”

Writing to the telegraph Lord Hutton of Furness former secretary of state for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform, 2007-8, answered this question with an emphatic “YES” stating:

“Safety must, of course, always be at the heart of the case for nuclear energy, and regulators must make this their top priority. In 2008, when I had responsibility for energy policy, the safety case was fundamental to my decision to sanction a new generation of nuclear power stations for Britain. I have every confidence that this will be the same approach taken by ministers today. Modern nuclear technologies have multi-layered safety systems in place that offer a huge improvement on the older power plants.”

With ageing power plants due to close in coming years, time is running out for Britain and nuclear power seems like the most probable solution to not only to keep the “lights on” but also to cut down carbon emissions.

If Britain turns its back on nuclear the Government would be limited to very few energy generating resources. Renewables would be one of them, for the delight of the energy secretary Chris Hune. The second option would be gas as it is unlikely that the Government would sanction a new coal-fired power plant.

Meanwhile one thing is for sure the nuclear crisis in Japan will result in rising business gas prices and consequently higher business energy prices as LNG cargoes are diverted to the Far East to fill the gap left by the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

To sum things up I leave you with the question: “Should Britain Turn its Back on Nuclear?” – Share your thoughts and opinions in our comments section.

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