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The Independence of Natural Gas

Felipe — Wed, 08 Jun 2011 07:55:26 +0000

The Independence of Natural Gas

Natural gas demand is on the increase globally due to a series of factors. According to the IEA (International Energy Agency) the fossil fuel is about to enter a golden age on the back of predictions that it will make up to a quarter of the world’s energy supply by 2035 as well as a “quick fix” for climate change.

The western countries energy watchdog (IEA) is predicting that natural gas is moving towards independence by becoming a truly global market over the next two decades. But according to Javier Blas from the Financial Times the commodity is far way from globalisation.

Despite being hooked to oil prices, like in continental Europe, natural gas prices varies substantially around the world. In America natural gas prices are below 3 per mBtu (million British thermal units) while in continental Europe it gets close to 6 per mBtu, over 7 per mBtu in Asia and around 60 pence per therm (Monday’s pricing) here in the UK.

The first step towards globalisation is to create a global unit for the commodity, like the oil industry has the barrels. We can’t have a globalised gas market if countries use different measuring units, like the mBtu used in America and the therm used here in the UK.

Second, pricing systems in key regions like continental Europe and Asia need to proclaim independence from oil in order to reflect the real supply and demand fundamentals of the commodity. Right now natural gas supply and demand fundamentals are anchored to those of the oil market.

The natural gas market needs to adopt the gas-to-gas pricing mechanism used by the US, Australia and the UK which is based on shorter-term contracts and not related to oil prices.

If natural gas is to become totally independent from oil those are the initial steps but more commitment is needed from exporters, importers and regulatory trading bodies to turn it into a truly independent traded commodity.

UK Gas prices

UK wholesale gas prices dropped to its lowest levels in nine months on the back of high LNG supply and low demand for this time of year.

Day-ahead prices traded at 58.75 pence per therm on Monday, down 15 pence from previous session and winter 2011/12 gas contract fell 0.20 pence to 71.45 pence per therm, while winter 2012/13 was down 0.30 pence at 73.50 pence. Good news for businesses who buy long term business gas contracts.

If you would like more information on our range of energy services or would simply like to find out how this could benefit your business, simply call our energy team today on 0870 710 7560 or request a call back at time to suit.

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New Oil Tax Impacts Gas Prices:

Felipe — Wed, 11 May 2011 07:30:43 +0000

Gas Prices To Go Up 25pc Due To Extra Oil Tax

Extra Oil Tax Cuts Down Profits of Oil and Gas Companies – During the 2011 Budget pronouncement, Chancellor George Osborne announced that the supplementary charge tax on UK oil and gas production was to be increased from 20pc to 32pc. Up until now oil and gas companies operating in the North Sea were rather quiet about the tax surge but have recently made public that their profits were slashed and energy and gas prices will rise.

The tax increase brought even more insecurity to the unstable UK energy industry. Big suppliers like British Gas owner Centrica, have already warned it may partially shut the UK’s biggest gas field as a result of the tax.

Last Wednesday, 4th of May, CEO’s of Britain’s largest oil and gas suppliers tried to persuade the Government to abandon a £10bn tax grab on North Sea energy companies, amid warnings the levy will “utterly destroy” the industry.

Speaking to the government’s cross-party Energy and Climate Change Select Committee industry representatives threatened that 30,000 jobs are at risk due to the uncertainty raised by the windfall tax.

The Energy Minister, Chris Hune and Justine Greening, Economic Secretary at the Treasury who were also at the hearing stated that the effect on jobs is pure speculation, because the impact on investment was not yet known

According to Greening, George Osborne used the independent Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) analysis to calculate the tax and concluded that the effect in investment will be minor.

Writing for the Telegraph, Andrew Lilico, Economist with Europe Economics, and a member of the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee said that claims by oil and gas companies that it is going to shut down the North Sea are just silly.

First, let’s remember that Petroleum Revenue Taxation (PRT), including the “supplementary charge” on corporation tax that Osborne raised, isn’t like taxes on widgets or socks or ice cream. It isn’t, as with most taxes, a matter of the government confiscating a portion of someone’s property to use for government purposes (worthy or not). No – it’s the Queen’s oil, not the oil company’s. PRT is simply the way that the oil company pays the Crown for the right to take away and sell that oil. It’s an alternative to a royalty, and can be thought of in much the same way. – Andrew Lilico

It is widely known that tax increases reduces incentives to invest and cut down profit margins from companies affected by the scheme. One way or another, companies find a way to pass this to the end customer in order to minimise the effects on their profit margin.

Centrica has already stated that wholesale gas price for delivery next winter has gone up 25pc because of the jump in commodity prices but has not yet been passed on to customers.

What baffles me about all this is that over the past two year when Brent crude oil prices surged from $80 to $125 a barrel and the profit of these Oil and Gas companies nearly doubled, they kept quiet and even managed to increase oil and gas prices due to one reason or another.

Let’s not forget that the majority of the oil and gas being explored today in the North Sea is fruit of investment planning made a little over a decade ago when oil prices were around $10 per barrel. So to say that a 32pc supplementary charge will shut down the North Sea with Oil prices at $100 per barrel is frankly absurd.

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Energy Market Report May11:

Catalyst Commercial Services Ltd — Thu, 05 May 2011 07:05:41 +0000

Energy Market Report May 2011

Our monthly analysis of the UK gas and power markets is now available on line for the month of May 2011. The service is intended to keep you up to date with all the major news in Europe’s gas and power markets. It is also designed to keep power executives focused on market activity in an easy to digest format.

Your find our May 2011 report here and all historical energy reports can be located here.

If you would like more information on our services or would like to find out how this could benefit your business, simply call our energy team today on 0870 710 7560 or request a call back at time to suit.

Or you might want to subscribe for further updates direct from our site.

Influenced UK Gas Prices:

Felipe — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 08:00:59 +0000

Never Have So Many Factors Influenced UK Gas Prices

Back in the days when British North Sea natural gas reserves were at full throttle Britain use to be self sufficient for natural gas. In those days only a couple of factors had major influence in UK gas prices, they were weather and demand, the golden days as many energy brokers referred it. Nowadays the UK gas and energy market has grown more complex with several factors influencing prices on a daily basis.

In 1998 the first gas pipeline between UK and continental Europe was opened which automatically hooked British gas prices to European oil indexed prices. That was when British prices started to be influenced by marginal factors.

This is how it works. When crude oil prices rose, so did natural gas prices for continental Europe and consequently the UK, because of pipeline connections to Europe. Since UK gas prices aren’t completely hooked up to European oil indexed gas prices, gas in the UK becomes cheaper than in continental Europe and European gas traders end up buying gas from the UK. That is when the demand in increased and UK gas suppliers put their prices up to stop the flow to continental Europe and to contain the price surge in the UK gas market.

One factor that recently started to play an important role in the British gas and energy market was LNG imports. Liquefied Natural Gas imports brought a global component to business and commercial gas prices. Predictions are that in a few years time the UK will be importing as much as 50% of its total gas supply needs from LNG which will make UK gas prices compete with American and Asian markets.

The biggest issue with LNG imports is where to store it. Britain is lacking LNG import terminals but the issue is being addressed with two new large terminals under construction in Wales and the expansion of the Isle of Grain should increase UK’s LNG storage capacity considerably.

Commercial and business gas prices continue to be influenced by weather and demand but as afore mentioned not as much as it use to. Proof to that is what happened the past winter, when temperatures were way below seasonal average pushing gas for heating consumption to extremely high levels and instead of going up wholesale gas prices dropped.

As if energy brokers didn’t have enough to worry about, two new factors are concerning energy brokers across the land. It first started with the turmoil in Egypt that extended to Libya which made crude oil prices surge over the $120 US Dollar mark, causing a rally in the UK gas market. As a consequence UK gas prices climbed to its highest levels in more than 21 months.

The second factor that is taking away the sleep of UK energy brokers is the earthquake and tsunami that devastated part of the eastern coast of Japan. You may ask why? The answer is simple, Japan is the biggest LNG importer and a reduction in its nuclear energy generation increases the likelihood of LNG tankers being diverted from the UK to Japan, as the second biggest Japanese energy generation resource is gas power plants.

As you can see the UK Energy and Gas Market are more complex than what many people think. Now imagine you having to watch all those factors in order to find the cheapest business gas and business energy prices for you company. You wouldn’t have time to focus on what really matters for your business. That is why when it comes down to finding the best deals in gas or energy it’s best to leave it to the professionals: Energy Brokers.

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IEA and IMF Announcements:

Felipe — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 05:45:59 +0000

IEA and IMF Announcements Pulled Oil Prices Down

At the start of the session on Monday Brent crude oil was being traded above $127 per barrel and dipped below $125.50 later in the same session, after Saudi Arabia assured it can pump more oil if needed and hopes of a peace settlement in Libya. On Tuesday prices continued to drop after announcement of the IEA and the IMF that crude prices above the $100 are starting to hurt global economy.

The International Energy Agency report showed that high prices are already starting to dent oil demand while the IMF Economic Outlook predicted that US and Japan economies will expand at a slower pace than previously predicted. As both countries are the first and third largest oil consumers the report had a direct impact in oil prices that slid as much as $4 from Monday to Tuesday.

At the time of writing Brent Crude oil prices were being traded at $123.56 after falling as much as $2.01, or 1.6 %, to $121.97 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.

Falling oil prices dragged UK gas prices with it and Winter 2011/12 gas eased trading at 73.50 pence per therm and despite a disruption in supply from Norway where a gas field was shut down due to a gas leak, spot gas prices also backed a little and where trade at 59.00 pence per therm thanks to strong LNG supply.

May gas contracts prices also registered a slightly reduction and were traded at 61.30 pence per therm down 0.10 pence while prices for the third quarter fell nearly half a penny to 64.30 pence.

Despite a secured line of LNG tankers already on its way to Britain gas brokers are concerned LNG terminals won’t be able to compensate further supply disruptions.

Backed by lower gas prices, OTC (over-the-counter) energy prices also fell with the MWh being sold at 50.90 pounds, 85p lower than previous sessions. The restart and reintegration to the grid of Hartlepool 1 nuclear reactor on Monday also influenced lower energy prices.

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Energy Market Report Apr11:

Catalyst Commercial Services Ltd — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 05:45:44 +0000

Energy Market Report April 2011

Our monthly analysis of the UK gas and power markets is now available on line for the month of April 2011. The service is intended to keep you up to date with all the major news in Europe’s gas and power markets. It is also designed to keep power executives focused on market activity in an easy to digest format.

Your find our April 2011 report here and all historical energy reports can be located here.

Or you might want to subscribe for further updates direct from our site.

Time To Turn Back on Nuclear:

Felipe — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 03:21:31 +0000

Should Britain Turn its Back on Nuclear?

The catastrophic events in Japan that led to Fukushima’s nuclear crisis made the world review their concepts about nuclear energy generation. What once was seen as an effective way to generate carbon free electricity is now being questioned about its safety that will sure comprise its economical viability.

What happened at Fukushima’s nuclear power plant caused deep wounds on the nuclear industry, forcing governments in every corner of the globe to review their nuclear development policies.

As countries around the globe start to decarbonise their economies, nuclear power is seen universally as a vital and cost effective carbon free energy generating resource. But new safety policies and other costs for new and existing nuclear power plants could turn nuclear power less economic or even uneconomic.

The nuclear industry has a strong safety record and there is no reason to believe that this cannot be maintained into the future but events in Japan have changed these parameters. Although we don’t have a detailed report of what happened at Fukushima nuclear power plant further improvements on the current high safety levels will sure be implemented and required by new nuclear power plants.

This leads us to the question: “Is it safe for Britain to go on building new nuclear plants?”

Writing to the telegraph Lord Hutton of Furness former secretary of state for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform, 2007-8, answered this question with an emphatic “YES” stating:

“Safety must, of course, always be at the heart of the case for nuclear energy, and regulators must make this their top priority. In 2008, when I had responsibility for energy policy, the safety case was fundamental to my decision to sanction a new generation of nuclear power stations for Britain. I have every confidence that this will be the same approach taken by ministers today. Modern nuclear technologies have multi-layered safety systems in place that offer a huge improvement on the older power plants.”

With ageing power plants due to close in coming years, time is running out for Britain and nuclear power seems like the most probable solution to not only to keep the “lights on” but also to cut down carbon emissions.

If Britain turns its back on nuclear the Government would be limited to very few energy generating resources. Renewables would be one of them, for the delight of the energy secretary Chris Hune. The second option would be gas as it is unlikely that the Government would sanction a new coal-fired power plant.

Meanwhile one thing is for sure the nuclear crisis in Japan will result in rising business gas prices and consequently higher business energy prices as LNG cargoes are diverted to the Far East to fill the gap left by the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

To sum things up I leave you with the question: “Should Britain Turn its Back on Nuclear?” – Share your thoughts and opinions in our comments section.

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Gas Rises on Japan Shortages:

Felipe — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 02:44:44 +0000

Gas Prices Rise with Power Shortages in Japan

Yes you read it right, power shortages in Japan made UK gas prices rise four percent yesterday. In total 10 nuclear plants are out of action in Japan which increases the likelihood of LNG tankers being diverted away from the UK to Japan. “The severity of the situation is heightened by the possibility that the injection of seawater for emergency cooling of several of the reactors affected by the earthquake could require the scrapping of those reactors, so resulting in a permanent loss of some of the nuclear capacity already down,” Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note on Tuesday.

Gas for delivery next winter surged to its highest levels since late 2008 on the prospect of less LNG being available to cover potential demand spikes during cold winter weather. Contracts were closed at 74.25 pence per therm at market opening on Tuesday before falling to 73.20 late in the morning.

Summer contracts also closed a record high levels trading at 65 pence at the start of the session and then falling to 64.5 pence per therm. Spot gas prices shed one penny to 63 pence, while day ahead contracts firmed at 63.10 pence per therm.

“Prices are still strong. They are up from yesterday but there’s a bit of selling coming in now. Prices are not coming off much though,” said one Business Gas broker.

The same Business Gas trader stated:

“I can’t see it coming down a lot while we have nuclear issues in Japan. It’s very unclear on what is happening with Japanese LNG demand so the market is nervous,”

As complex as it is now the UK gas market has to deal with consequences that are happening on the other side of the globe. Who would expect that the devastating natural disaster in Japan could influence UK gas prices?

What baffles me the most is the fact Japans nuclear plants insurance doesn’t cover tsunamis and earth quake damages. According to experts all together this catastrophe could cost Japan a total of £115 BILLION.

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Middle East Unrests Continues:

Felipe — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 02:29:12 +0000

Middle East Unrests Continue to Influence Gas Prices

UK gas prices climbed to its highest levels in more than 21 months supported by conflicts in Middle East which are pushing Brent crude oil prices close to the $120 a barrel. On Monday Brent crude oil prices firmed at $117.40 a barrel, causing a rally in the UK gas market. Winter gas contract prices climbed to 68.50 pence per therm on Monday morning, the highest since May 2009.

Concerns about the turmoil in Libya, tensions in Saudi Arabia and rumours of the wave of anti-government protests spreading across the Middle East and North Africa, spooked the market early this week.

So far Libya has cut off only 2 percent of Europe’s gas supply but as unrests spread to countries like Oman, Yemen and Algeria, the uncertainties about future oil and gas production in these countries increase.

“The potential disruptions of gas production in countries currently under social unrest are significant,” – said an energy broker.

Higher oil costs push up some mainland European gas contracts and affect prices in the U.K. because of pipeline connections to Europe. Stronger oil also means that European gas suppliers may buy gas in the UK over the coming months as their oil hooked up prices rise in price.

Gas for summer 2011 contracts rose 1.75 pence to 59 pence and April’s climbed to 58.90 pence. Meanwhile spot gas prices were traded at 59.75 pence on Monday, up 2 pence from Friday. On Tuesday prices continued to surge hitting 60 pence per therm. At the time of writing.

Stronger gas prices means higher energy prices, baseload power for Tuesday was traded at 51 pounds per megawatt-hour. The biggest rise was seen on Winter 2011/12 contracts with increases of 2 pounds trading at 56.90 pounds per megawatt-hour. At the time of writing.

Updated

U.K. natural-gas and power contracts declined after two days of gains as crude fell and milder weather was forecast.

Gas for summer, the six months from April, lost as much as 1.55 pence, or 2.6 percent, to 58 pence a therm, according to broker prices compiled by Bloomberg. It was at 58.4 pence as of 9:25 a.m. in London. The winter contract dropped as much as 1.05 pence to 67.75 pence.

Gas for same-day delivery fell 0.9 pence to 58.9 pence.

Power for next month dropped for the first time in nine days, losing 90 pence, or 1.8 percent, to 50.10 pounds a megawatt-hour.

source: Bloomberg Businessweek

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Energy Market Report Mar11:

Catalyst Commercial Services Ltd — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 23:35:43 +0000

Energy Market Report March 2011

Our monthly analysis of the UK gas and power markets is now available on line for the month of March 2011. The service is intended to keep you up to date with all the major news in Europe’s gas and power markets. It is also designed to keep power executives focused on market activity in an easy to digest format.

Your find our March 2011 report here and all historical energy reports can be located here.

Or you might want to subscribe for further updates direct from our site.

Middle East Price Impact:

Felipe — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 23:47:43 +0000

Gas Prices Rise as Middle East Unrest Continues

What started in Egypt seems to be spreading all over the Middle East. Popular revolt and political uncertainty is making investors plan for the unpredictable, as crude oil prices continues to rise, which in turn is contributing to higher gas and energy prices.

When the protests started in Egypt crude oil prices were below the $100 mark, more precisely at $98 a barrel. Last Monday the Brent crude oil barrel was traded at $108. As UK gas prices are tied up to oil prices, prompt and curve gas prices rose too.

Prompt gas contracts for immediate and day-ahead delivery were both up nearly one penny from Monday’s close at 54.55 pence. While winter 2011 gas contract traded at 63.50 pence per therm, the highest level since October 2009.

On Tuesday morning National Grid data showed that the system was undersupplied which associated with a slightly higher increase in demand was also responsible for higher wholesale gas prices.

Since nearly 50% of UK power production uses gas as a fuel day-ahead energy prices also reported an increase of 0.75 pounds and were traded at 47.25 pounds per megawatt-hour. A drop in wind power generation also added to higher energy prices.

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Bill Gates Investing Millions:

Felipe — Sun, 20 Feb 2011 17:08:32 +0000

Bill Gates Investing Millions to Stop Global Warming

The man who revolutionised personal computing now wants to revolutionise the way we generate energy. After stepping down as the CEO of Microsoft, Bill Gates has been investing millions of dollars to fight global warming; his ultimate goal is to find an energy source completely free of CO2 emissions.

Will Bill Gates ever find a way to generate carbon-free energy? Have your say here.

For the past few years Gates has dedicated most of his time and money to projects that range from the development of high voltage batteries to machines capable of extracting CO2 from the air.

As one of the most successful business men in history his words carry enormous credibility which gives more visibility to projects that might not leave the drawing board. Above all Bill Gates is seen as a visionary and if he believes such projects could change our lives, a lot of people will sit and hear what he has to say.

According to Mr. Gates the world needs an “energy miracle”, an energy source that is reliable, cheap and carbon free. He says we shouldn’t put all our eggs in one basket and purse every available path to achieve this really big breakthrough.

Around the globe there are many countries generating energy from renewable energy resources that look very promising but not big enough to cause the impact needed to make a change. Tidal energy, geothermal and even wind are all good and clean energy generating resources but we need more than that.

The father of Windows is working on a new nuclear approach called travelling-wave reactor, which uses waste uranium for fuel. That dream is far from becoming a reality but if it does we could have cheaper energy with no CO2 emissions.

To sum things up Bill Gates points out two immediate solutions the American and other Governments around the globe should take note to make the transition towards a carbon free society quicker. Increase investment in research and development of new energy generating technology and a well structured energy plan that considers each option based on the likelihood of success.

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Gas Prices Rise Again:

Felipe — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 10:14:20 +0000

Commercial Gas Prices Rise Again

UK spot gas prices rise as Norway’s biggest gas platform Troll shuts temporarily overnight. Just as UK gas market analysts and gas brokers were talking about how reliable and important Norwegian gas supplies has been to the British gas market this winter. Two weeks of unexpected outages and shut downs due to power cuts in Norwegian gas platforms and gas processing plants made the rollercoaster of UK gas prices move again.

Wholesale spot gas prices hit a season high of 55 pence per therm on Tuesday, up 2.20 pence, after gas flows from Langeled pipeline plunged from 65 mcm to scary 13 mcm and supplies into Scotland dropped from 54 mcm to only 10 mcm.

A brief overnight shutdown of Norway’s biggest gas platform Troll A and then a reduction of 40 percent in exports due to an unrelated power problem from Norway’s second largest export plant were responsible for the plunge of gas flows into Britain.

In the early hours of Tuesday, talks were that the issues in Norway were resolved and Langeled was ramping up again and gas flows would go back to normal over the course of the day.

Within a day gas prices had eased to 54.70 pence by 1120 GMT, while gas prices for Wednesday eased from highs of 54.25 pence to 53.25 pence after Troll operator Statoil said the shutdown had been due to a “false alarm,” which should mean more gas coming to Britain yesterday afternoon.

Despite below average demand for this time of the year, the UK gas market was apprehensive as flows into eastern England and Scotland remained at low levels, late Tuesday morning.

The good news was that inputs from LNG terminals and Britain’s biggest gas storage site Rough compensated for some of the lost supply from Norway.

If you would like more information on our range of Commercial Gas services or how we compare gas prices, or would simply like to find out how this could benefit your business, simply call our energy team today on 0870 710 7560 or request a call back at time to suit.

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Commercial Gas Rates:

Felipe — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 08:53:31 +0000

Commercial Gas Prices Ease – While Energy Prices Remain Steady

The ups and downs of UK commercial gas prices continue, while energy prices remain steady, thanks to the restart of nuclear reactors over the weekend. Right now several factors are influencing British wholesale gas prices.

Last week fear that the turmoil in Egypt could close the Suez Channel, made gas prices go up by a couple of pounds at the end of last week. Disruptions in the supply from the Langeled pipeline due to power failures in Kollsnes gas processing plant, also had it shares of guilt in higher gas prices.

According to National Grid data, on Monday night imports from Norway dropped to levels below 20 mcm, a plunge of 70 percent in supply. But on Tuesday morning flows returned to 70 mcm and Kollsnes, the Norwegian gas processing plant returned to full capacity after the unexpected outages due to power cuts.

With the unexpected drops in supply from Norway storage sites had to increase their flows which helped to maintain tranquillity in the UK gas system.

“Storage reacted to the drop in Langeled flows and demand is off so (we have a) comfortable system,” one gas trader said.

Despite a four day delay, the Al Mafyar LNG gas tanker finally birthed at Britain’s South Hook terminal yesterday morning which helped to keep commercial and business gas prices low.

Spot gas prices on Tuesday were traded at 54.00 pence per therm, down 3 percent, and today’s spot gas prices were traded yesterday at 53.90 pence, down 1p.

Curve contracts followed the bearish prompt lower, and softer oil prices also weighed on long-term gas contracts. Traders also said that a strong sell-off in March contracts had a knock-on effect on prices further out.

March fell 0.65 pence to 53.85 pence ($8.67 per mmBtu) per therm, while front summer gas prices dropped 25p and were traded at 52.62 pence.

Meanwhile energy prices remained steady despite the ups and downs of wind power generation. Storms boosted wind farms output well above 1,000 megawatts (MW) over the weekend, but a drop in wind speed yesterday resulted in wind power dropping to just above 500MW.

Day-ahead power prices gained 60 pence to 46.85 pounds per megawatt-hour (MWh). Front-month March fell in line with weaker gas prices as it traded at 46.40 pounds, 70 pence below the previous session.

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Energy Market Report Feb11:

Catalyst Commercial Services Ltd — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 04:53:43 +0000

Energy Market Report February 2011

Our monthly analysis of the UK gas and power markets is now available on line for the month of February 2011. The service is intended to keep you up to date with all the major news in Europe’s gas and power markets. It is also designed to keep power executives focused on market activity in an easy to digest format.

Your find our February 2011 report here and all historical energy reports can be located here.

Or you might want to subscribe for further updates direct from our site.

The UK's Largest Energy Blog - Catalyst-Commercial.co.uk » Business Gas

The Independence of Natural Gas

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