The decline in British electricity consumption slowed significantly between April and June, which could show the recession is easing, UK energy network operator National Grid said on Wednesday.  But, partly as a result of the fall in demand in the first half of the year, Britain should be much more comfortably supplied with business electricity next winter than in the last few years, the company said in its first Winter 2009/10 outlook report.

“Electricity demand forecasts for next winter, however, are showing a slowdown in the rate of decline of electricity demand,” the company said in a statement. “This could be an indication that the economy is beginning to stabilise as the recession shows signs of slowing.” Weather corrected electricity demand for April 2009 was down 8.1 percent compared to April 2008, while demand for June 2009 compared to June 2008 was down by only 4.8 percent, National Grid said.

However, drawing any firm conclusions about whether demand will further reduce from here or if it will have started to increase by the winter to come is extremely difficult.

Installed generation capacity relative to the Average Cold Spell (ACS) peak demand for next winter of 57.8 gigawatts indicates there should be a plant margin of 33 percent, excluding potential imports from France.  “Setting the ACS demand forecast along side the generation availability figures shows comfortable electricity availability for winter to come,” the report says.

“It should be possible to comfortably meet even our 1 in 20 probability demands plus our short term operating reserve.”

The recession has also hit gas demand in Britain. Despite last winter being the coldest since 1993, gas and power demand were both down compared to winter 2007/08.

UK business gas supplies from Norway are also expected to be higher next winter as more production comes on line and Britain should be able to import much more liquefied natural gas (LNG) after the South Hook terminal in Wales opened in May and the nearby Dragon LNG terminals is expected to open in summer.

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