Daily Energy Market Report - 3rd June 2026

Gas surges back above 120p as the Norwegian offshore strike deadline arrives in two days, temperatures normalise and EUA carbon hits a four-month high of EUR 80.50/tonne.

The brief window of near-term price relief that characterised the final week of May has closed sharply.

UK day-ahead NBP gas surged to around 121p/therm on Tuesday 3 June, up more than 9p from last week’s lows, as the Norwegian offshore strike deadline of 5 June crystallised into a near-certain supply disruption.

With mediation efforts reported to be making slow progress, traders are now pricing the strike as a baseline rather than a tail risk.

Temperatures have also cooled from last week’s record 34.8°C, returning toward seasonal norms and lifting residential demand. The combined effect, rising supply risk and recovering demand, has pushed Q3-26 contracts up 8.9% on the week, and the whole curve from Day-Ahead through to Winter-26 now sits back above 119p.

Gas Market

Day-ahead NBP surged to around 120.86p/therm on Tuesday, its sharpest single-session recovery since the Hormuz disruption began in March. The primary driver is the Norwegian offshore strike scheduled to begin on 5 June. Three unions representing approximately 8,100 workers have given notice of action, with an initial wave of 617 workers followed by escalation provisions. State-brokered mediation was still ongoing as of Tuesday morning, but market participants are treating a deal as unlikely inside 48 hours given the scale of the wage gap reported by both sides.

Norway provides approximately 30% of European gas supply via pipeline, with Langeled carrying the majority of UK-bound flows. Any sustained reduction in Langeled nominations arriving during June would be particularly damaging: the UK needs this period to inject into storage, and starting from just 10% capacity means there is no buffer if pipeline deliveries fall short. Q3-26 gas moved up 8.9% on the week to 119.33p, the forward market’s clearest signal that this is not a prompt-only event.

Temperature normalisation is adding to the buying pressure. Last week’s record heat, which suppressed heating demand and inflated the renewable output figures, has given way to more typical early June conditions. Residential gas consumption is recovering, and CCGT demand for power generation is also picking back up as solar output retreats from its exceptional levels of the previous week.

Winter-26 contracts moved back above 120p for the first time since the brief rally in mid-May, and Cal-28 long-dated gas edged higher to 71.50p. The market is no longer treating the current supply constraint as short-lived.

Electricity Market

Day-ahead baseload power jumped to around £111/MWh, its highest level in several weeks, as gas surged and EUA carbon allowances pushed to a four-month high.

The mechanics are straightforward: CCGT is the marginal generator, gas costs are up sharply, and carbon adds a further premium on top. The combination makes for a very different spot price to the sub-£80/MWh levels seen during last week’s heatwave.

Q3-26 power moved up 3.9% on the day to around £102.30/MWh, and Winter-26 power returned above £103/MWh. Businesses approaching Q3 contract renewals are now looking at a very different market to the one that existed just five trading days ago.

The forward curve has recovered the majority of the ground it conceded during the post-bank holiday easing.

Wind generation was moderate on Tuesday and solar output was tracking closer to seasonal averages following the return of cloudier, cooler conditions.

Neither was sufficient to meaningfully soften the day-ahead price given the scale of the gas and carbon moves.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent crude nudged up to around $95.20/barrel, a modest gain that belies the volatile backdrop. Iran-US talks remain technically active but the suspension of direct communications earlier this week has reduced confidence in a near-term deal.

The ceasefire framework discussed last week has stalled on the same two sticking points, Iran’s demand for Hormuz sovereignty and the nuclear programme, and the market has shifted from pricing a deal as probable to pricing it as possible.

The standout move in commodities on Tuesday was EUA carbon, which surged to €80.50/tonne, up 5.2% on the day and its highest level in four months.

The rally reflects a combination of tighter near-term EU allowance supply, increased gas-to-power generation across the continent as temperatures normalise, and growing market confidence that the EU ETS cap trajectory will tighten through 2027.

For UK businesses, EUA at €80.50 adds roughly £18-20/MWh to the carbon cost of gas-fired generation, which feeds directly into forward power prices via the CCGT stack.

TTF front-month rose 4.6% to €48.10/MWh and JKM LNG gained 3.7% to $14.10/MMBtu, with the Norwegian strike risk translating into European and Asian LNG buying as buyers seek alternatives to pipeline gas.

Commodity	Price	Change (day)
Brent Crude	$95.20/barrel	▲ +0.6%
WTI	$90.10/barrel	▲ +0.7%
EUA Carbon (Dec-26)	€80.50/tonne	▲ +5.2%
JKM LNG (front-month)	$14.10/MMBtu	▲ +3.7%
TTF Gas (front-month)	€48.10/MWh	▲ +4.6%

Storage and Supply Outlook

UK storage at 10% of capacity remains the structural vulnerability that every upside risk in this market amplifies.

The Norwegian strike, if it runs for even a week, could materially slow or halt injection progress at the precise moment operators need to be buying and storing gas. European storage overall is tracking around 37% of capacity, broadly in line with the five-year average, but the UK’s relative deficit means any continental tightening pulls flows away from UK storage before domestic targets are hit.

The QatarEnergy LNG force majeure runs through mid-August, restricting one of the main LNG supply alternatives. US LNG exports remain elevated and are providing a partial offset, but Atlantic LNG is being competed for aggressively by Asian buyers given the Qatari shortfall.

The combination of constrained Norwegian pipeline supply, limited Qatari LNG, and UK storage at seasonal lows leaves the injection season looking increasingly fragile.

The Ofgem Q3 price cap of £1,862/year for domestic customers takes effect from 1 July, one month away. Wholesale conditions heading into July are meaningfully tighter than they were when Ofgem made that calculation, and the Q4 cap announcement, due in August, will reflect the current market environment if prices remain elevated.

What This Means for Your Business

The market has moved sharply in five trading days.

Day-ahead gas is up more than 9p from its post-bank holiday lows, Q3 contracts are up nearly 9% on the week, and forward power has recovered above £100/MWh for winter.

Businesses that were considering fixing ahead of the Norwegian strike now face materially worse entry points than they would have had last Thursday.

If the strike proceeds on 5 June and mediation fails, prompt gas could move further and quickly. Norwegian supply disruptions of this scale typically take one to two weeks to partially resolve even after formal mediation resumes, and UK storage has no capacity to absorb a sustained shortfall without drawing prices significantly higher.

For businesses with contract renewals in Q3 or Q4, the current market warrants urgent attention.

The window of relative softness that existed last week has closed, and the risk picture over the next two weeks is weighted firmly to the upside. To discuss your options before the Norwegian deadline, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 2 June 2026

Watch the video version: Video Energy Market Report – 3 June 2026