UK Energy Market Report - 3 September 2026

Near-curve gas retreats as the system opens long, while Winter-27 onwards firms and day-ahead power falls again on strong wind

UK gas and power settled sharply higher on Wednesday. Norwegian outages, record Asian LNG pricing and thin European storage all pulled the winter curve upward.

This morning the picture has split. Near-curve gas is off around 4p/therm, the system opened 6 mcm/day long and day-ahead power has fallen to roughly £93/MWh. Further out, Winter-27 and the 2028 contracts have firmed against their settlements.

That split is the story for buyers. Short-dated prices are being set by wind and a comfortable system, while the back of the curve is still pricing structural supply risk.

Gas Market

NBP day-ahead settled at 180.60 p/therm on 2 September, up 2.60p on the day.

The whole near curve moved with it. Oct-26 settled at 182.15p, up 3.86p, Winter-26 at 182.47p, up 4.04p, and Summer-27 at 121.51p, up 4.49p.

This morning that has partly unwound. At 09:19 the indicative day-ahead was 176.80p, down 3.80p, with Oct-26 at 177.93p and Winter-26 at 178.63p.

The near-term softness has a straightforward cause. The UK system opened 6 mcm/day long, system demand dropped to 92.45 mcm/day from 111.84 the day before, and gas-for-power demand is forecast at just 13 mcm/day for day-ahead. Linepack is comfortable at 329.66 mcm.

Supply is pulling the other way. Gassco reported total Norwegian exit nominations of 279.3 mcm/day, and Kollsnes has taken a further unplanned outage on a process issue, cutting an additional 6 mcm/day. Troll capacity remains reduced by 6.7 mcm/day to 103.5 mcm/day until 6 September.

Flows to the UK are up 2 mcm/day this morning on higher Langeled volumes, and UK LNG sendout is expected at 8 mcm/day.

The far curve tells a different story to the front. Winter-27 has moved up to 121.00p against a 118.00p settlement, Summer-28 to 84.99p from 79.22p, and Winter-28 to 89.99p from 86.79p.

These are thinly traded contracts and single trades move them, so read those figures with care. The direction is consistent though: risk is being added beyond next winter, not taken out.

Electricity Market

UK day-ahead baseload settled at £114.14/MWh, a fall of £39.56 from Tuesday’s £153.70. This morning it has dropped further, indicatively around £93/MWh. Day-ahead peak settled at £90.80/MWh, down £60.61.

Wind is the reason. Forecast wind and solar output is strong today and tomorrow, easing on Saturday but staying above seasonal norms into next week. With gas-for-power demand at 13 mcm/day, CCGTs are being pushed well down the stack.

The forward curve has not followed spot down. Winter-26 baseload settled at £147.28/MWh, up £3.64, Q4-26 at £147.58, up £3.85, and Q1-27 at £146.97, up £3.43. This morning Nov-26 and Dec-26 firmed again to £152.80 and £151.51.

Peak contracts moved further. Winter-26 peak settled at £167.91/MWh and Winter-27 peak at £116.51/MWh, leaving the Winter-26 peak-to-baseload spread at roughly £21/MWh.

Nuclear availability sits behind those forward numbers. Hartlepool 1 has been fully offline since 27 May. Heysham 2-8, at 660 MW, goes down for a planned 80-day outage from 4 September, Torness 1, at 640 MW, for 19 days from 6 September, and Hartlepool 2, at 620 MW, for 16 days from 7 September.

That is a significant block of firm baseload leaving the system just as the heating season begins.

Imbalance pricing has been volatile with it. System buy price peaked at £240.00/MWh on 2 September and £183.95/MWh so far on 3 September, against a system sell price low of £39.62.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent settled at $95.63 a barrel, up $0.98, but has eased this morning from Tuesday’s six-week highs despite continued escalation in the Middle East. Disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz remains the main upside driver.

JKM at $25.52/MMBtu is at its highest since the first quarter of 2023. That matters directly to UK buyers. With Asian buyers paying that premium, cargoes that would otherwise land in North West Europe get pulled east, which is the last thing a 65% European storage position needs.

Sterling weakened slightly against both the euro and the dollar, at 1.1646 and 1.3484 respectively.

Storage and Supply Outlook

European gas storage stood at roughly 65% full at the end of August, well below the same point in 2025. That single number underpins most of the winter risk premium currently in the curve.

UK site-level storage is patchy. Holford and Stublach are both at 75%, Holehouse Farm at 70% and South Hook at 69%. At the other end, Hill Top sits at 16%, Isle of Grain at 34% and Dragon at 33%, while Rough and Humbly Grove both register nil.

LNG arrivals into North West Europe over the coming week are dominated by US cargoes, with deliveries scheduled into Gate, Zeebrugge, Eemshaven, Wilhelmshaven, Montoir and Fos.

On the policy side, German gas storage association INES has called on its government to introduce short-term measures to encourage injection ahead of winter. Germany’s newly approved capacity mechanism and renewed discussion of reserve coal generation point the same way. Security of supply is back at the top of the European agenda.

What This Means for Your Business

The near-term and the long-dated are telling you different things this morning, and they deserve different responses.

Short-dated prices are soft because the weather is helping. Strong wind, a long system and weak gas-for-power demand have taken roughly £60/MWh out of day-ahead power across two sessions.

That is genuinely useful if you buy flexibly or have volume to place in the prompt. But it is weather, not structure, and it can reverse inside a week.

The forward curve has not softened. Winter-26 gas around 178p and Winter-26 baseload around £145 to £147/MWh still price a market with reduced Norwegian availability, record Asian LNG competition and thin storage. If you have Winter-26 exposure open, this week’s rally has made it more expensive, not less.

Summer-27 remains the significant step down on the curve, at 121.51p for gas and £99.56/MWh for power. Contracts that reach past next winter continue to price materially lower, and for businesses with the credit and the appetite to go longer, that shape is where the value sits.

The caution is the back end. Winter-27 and the 2028 contracts firmed this morning against their settlements. Those are thin markets, but if the firming persists it erodes the discount that makes longer terms attractive in the first place.

If your contract renews between now and next April, the practical question is whether to fix into a rallying winter or structure around it. That is not a decision to take off a headline price. To review your position against today’s curve, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 28 August 2026