The whole NBP curve settled lower on an LNG surge, then bought it all back this morning as Gullfaks maintenance cut Norwegian flows and a fresh Hormuz attack lifted oil.

Monday sold off hard and Tuesday morning has bought most of it back. Every NBP contract from Day-Ahead to Win-28 settled lower on 3 August, and by this morning’s 09:24 update every one of them was indicated higher again.

The round trip is worth understanding, because the reason for Monday’s fall and the reason for this morning’s rebound are not the same thing. One was a wave of LNG, the other is a Norwegian outage that started today.

Here is what UK business energy buyers need to know.

Gas Market

NBP Day-Ahead settled at 141.00 p/therm on 3 August, down a penny on the session. The curve fell further than the prompt, with Sep-26 dropping 3.26p to 141.02p, Q4-26 losing 2.88p to 144.02p and Sum-27 shedding 3.36p to 90.03p.

Monday’s driver was supply. LNG deliveries into Europe were nominated at roughly 270 mcm/day, more than double the previous day, and EU storage sites took a net injection of around 3.0 TWh on the 1 August gas day, about 10% up on the session before.

That was enough to absorb softer Norwegian flows and a risk premium coming out of the curve after reports that planned US military action against Iran had been paused.

This morning has reversed the lot. Day-Ahead is indicated 3.59p higher at 144.59p, Sep-26 is up 4.88p at 145.90p and Q1-27 has added 5.20p to 142.30p. Sum-28 is the biggest mover on the board at 6.14p higher.

Gullfaks is the reason. Maintenance started today and runs to 8 August, and GASSCO total exit nominations have fallen to 318.8 mcm/day as a result. Flows to Britain are 9 mcm/day lower, with Langeled down 11.00 mcm/day to 44.30 mcm/day, only partly offset by Vesterled recovering 3.00 mcm/day to 14.00.

UKCS production is also 5.10 mcm/day lower at 73.70 mcm/day. Even so the system opened 4 mcm/day long, because demand fell faster than supply, easing 6.10 mcm/day to 127.26 mcm/day. Linepack slipped only marginally to 340.27 mcm.

LNG is not filling the gap at the British end. Total UK sendout is nominated broadly unchanged at 8 mcm/day, split between South Hook at 5.00 and Isle of Grain at 3.20, and the loaded NW European arrival schedule for this week points at Wilhelmshaven, Gate and Eemshaven rather than at UK terminals.

Britain is still exporting into the continental premium, with 34.70 mcm/day going to Belgium through IUK and 13.80 mcm/day to the Netherlands through BBL. NBP Day-Ahead at 141.00p sits under TTF at 144.67p, THE at 145.38p and Italian PSV at 153.59p.

The card below summarises where NBP contracts settled against the previous session.

Electricity Market

UK Day-Ahead baseload settled at 128.50 £/MWh on 3 August, a jump of 20.31 £/MWh on the day. Peak went further, up 39.25 £/MWh to 120.52 £/MWh, which mostly reflects how weak the 31 July comparison was rather than any real tightness on Monday.

Forward power moved the other way and fell in line with gas. Sep-26 baseload eased 0.67 £/MWh to 119.63, Q4-26 lost 1.98 to 122.10 and Win-26 dropped 1.96 to 119.80.

This morning has flipped again, and the split between prompt and curve is stark. Day-Ahead baseload is offered 38.50 £/MWh lower at 90, while every forward contract is indicated up, Q1-27 by 5.55 £/MWh and Nov-26 by 4.33.

Wind is behind the prompt collapse. Day-ahead gas-for-power demand is forecast to fall by 14 mcm/day as wind speeds strengthen tomorrow, though the forecast then has output dropping back below seasonal norms later in the week.

Balancing has calmed from the weekend. Maximum System Buy Price on 3 August reached 198.00 £/MWh at 06:15, and today’s peak so far is 152.00 £/MWh at 06:18, with the daily minimum sell price holding at 100.35 £/MWh rather than the negative print seen on 2 August.

The August nuclear programme still sits underneath the forward curve. Hartlepool 2 comes off on 7 August for 16 days, taking 620 MW out, followed by Heysham 1 from 17 August and Torness 1 from 21 August.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent M+1 settled at 83.77 $/barrel on 3 August, down 6.35 or roughly 7% in a single session, as the paused US strike on Iran took the war premium out of the price.

That has not held. Signals out of Washington and Tehran on the status of talks to end their five-month conflict are now conflicting, and a further attack on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil back up this morning.

Carbon drifted lower with everything else. EUA Dec-26 eased 0.40 to €80.86 and UK ETS Dec-26 slipped 0.31 to £58.78, leaving the UK contract at a discount of roughly €12 to the European scheme. Coal API2 for Cal-27 lost 2.78 to $122.14/tonne.

Sterling softened on both crosses, closing at 1.1678 against the euro and 1.3428 against the dollar. That nudges up the sterling cost of euro-priced gas and carbon at the margin.

Commodity	Price	Change (day)
Brent Crude (M+1)	$83.77/barrel	-7.0%
Coal API2 (Cal-27)	$122.14/tonne	-2.2%
EUA Carbon (Dec-26)	€80.86/tonne	-0.5%
UK ETS (Dec-26)	£58.78/tonne	-0.5%
JKM LNG (front-month)	$20.55/MMBtu	-4.2%
TTF Gas (day-ahead)	€57.59/MWh	-1.3%

Storage and Supply Outlook

UK storage is the weak point of the European picture, sitting at around 42% against Italy above 70% and Iberia not far behind.

The site-level detail matters more than the headline. Stublach is 74% full and Holehouse Farm 70%, but Hornsea is only 35%, Aldbrough 47% and both Rough and Humbly Grove are recorded at zero.

On the LNG side South Hook is the healthiest tank at 82%, with Isle of Grain at 42% and Dragon at 33%. With Rough offline, Britain carries very little seasonal cushion and leans on Norwegian pipeline flows and prompt LNG through the winter.

This week’s NW European cargo schedule is heavily American. Wilhelmshaven takes 104 mcm today from Louisiana and another 82 mcm tomorrow, with Gate due three cargoes and Eemshaven two by 10 August, almost all from the United States.

Temperatures stay the supportive factor. North West Europe is running around 4.4°C above seasonal norms today, and the UK 46-day forecast eases back towards normal midweek before turning warmer again over the weekend and into next week.

What This Means for Your Business

A two-day round trip of this size is exactly why single-day headlines are a poor basis for a buying decision. Sep-26 gas settled 3.26p lower on Monday and is now indicated 4.88p above that, which leaves it higher than where it closed last Thursday.

Nothing structural changed in between. A short Norwegian outage and a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz moved the whole curve, and both will pass. If you are watching where gas contracts are pricing before a renewal, judge the level against the last few weeks rather than against yesterday.

The curve shape is the durable signal. Win-26 settled at 140.60p while Sum-27 sits at 90.03p and Win-27 at 89.38p, a step down of roughly 50p per therm once this coming winter clears. A single fixed price averages that expensive winter across much cheaper years.

For larger sites that gap is worth structuring around. Buying in tranches rather than in one go lets you take the back seasons at today’s levels and leave the winter position open, which is the difference between accepting the average and choosing your entry points.

Power buyers face the same picture in reverse. A Day-Ahead price offered at 90 £/MWh this morning tells you nothing about a two-year contract when every forward baseload contract on the board is indicated higher, with 1.9 GW of nuclear coming off through August.

The watch items this week are the Gullfaks return on 8 August, tomorrow’s wind peak and whatever comes out of the Iran talks.

For a view tailored to your consumption profile and renewal window, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 3 August 2026