UK Energy Market Report - 5 June 2026

UK wholesale gas and electricity market update for 5 June 2026 – Norwegian strike averted, NBP prices, day-ahead power, Brent crude and procurement guidance for UK businesses.

The Norwegian gas strike that threatened to tighten UK supply was averted this morning, after oil companies struck a wage deal with three offshore unions ahead of the June 5 deadline.Gas markets had been pricing in a meaningful risk premium all week. The prompt is expected to ease as the news filters through, though Middle East tensions continue to provide underlying support and the market is unlikely to fully unwind this week's gains.

Gas Market

Norwegian oil companies reached agreement with the Styrke, Safe and Lederne unions early on Thursday, averting the planned walkout by approximately 617 offshore workers. Norwegian supply accounts for roughly 30% of UK pipeline gas imports on any given day, and confirmation that flows will remain uninterrupted removes the single biggest upside risk that had been driving prices this week.The settlement does not reverse the broader price support that has built up since Monday. NBP day-ahead settled at 118.50 p/therm in the most recent session, up sharply from last week's levels as the market factored in the strike threat alongside the Middle East geopolitical premium. Some easing is expected today, though the extent depends on how quickly risk appetite returns to normal.The near-curve has moved materially on the week. Jul-26 is at 117.90 p/therm and Q3-26 at 118.35 p/therm. Winter-26 sits at 119.86 p/therm, a noticeable premium over the prompt that reflects lingering uncertainty about the storage position as the UK heads into the shoulder season.At the long end, Cal-27 is at 93.83 p/therm. The structural backwardation remains intact – Cal-28 and Cal-29 are still pricing toward 72 and 65 p/therm respectively – though the spread to prompt has narrowed slightly as near-term prices pulled back from Monday's extreme.TTF front-month is around 47-49 EUR/MWh. JKM LNG remains elevated at approximately 18 USD/MMBtu as Asian buyers continue to compete with European importers for spot cargoes.European storage has ticked slightly above 40% on improved injection, but is still running approximately 9% behind the seasonal average compared to last year.

Electricity Market

UK day-ahead baseload settled at approximately 67.79 GBP/MWh in Thursday's session, falling sharply from Monday's 111 GBP/MWh peak as wind output recovered strongly. The swing illustrates how quickly UK power prices can move when the generation mix shifts. On a high-wind day, gas-fired plant steps back and the spot price compresses. On a low-wind day with nuclear units offline, CCGTs bear the load and prices spike.The nuclear outage picture at Heysham, Torness, Sizewell B and Hartlepool is unchanged. With wind performing well, the system absorbed the reduced nuclear availability without sustained price pressure in the day-ahead market. But the forward curve tells a different story: Q3-26 is at 102.50 GBP/MWh and Winter-26 at 103.60 GBP/MWh, both well above the current spot. That gap reflects the market's view that gas will remain the price-setter for a significant portion of the coming months, particularly during low-wind periods in autumn and winter.Cal-27 power is at 84.52 GBP/MWh and Cal-29 is priced toward 65 GBP/MWh, consistent with expectations of continued renewable capacity growth progressively reducing gas-for-power demand over the medium term.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent held above 95 USD/barrel on Thursday, adding 0.23% in a session where oil has remained broadly supported by the Middle East situation. Brent is up more than 4% on the week, reflecting the sustained risk premium around potential disruption to LNG shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI dipped slightly to 92.80 USD/barrel as domestic US inventory movements applied a modest counterweight.EUA carbon for December 2026 delivery eased to around 77.50 EUR/tonne, softening modestly from last week's levels as improved renewable output in parts of Europe reduced short-term demand for carbon-intensive generation. The direction is minor and should not be read as a structural shift.

Storage and Supply Outlook

European gas storage has ticked just above 40% on improved injection rates, but remains approximately 9% behind the seasonal average versus last year. With Norwegian supply now confirmed intact following this morning's deal, the most acute near-term threat to the refill trajectory has passed. That does not mean the storage picture is comfortable – the cumulative shortfall heading into winter is still meaningful, and any further supply disruptions between now and October will land on a thinner-than-usual buffer.UK LNG arrivals from the US remain well-supported, providing a steady backstop to pipeline flows. The Middle East situation continues to introduce some uncertainty around global LNG shipping routes, though no material diversions have been confirmed. The overall supply picture is more settled today than it was 24 hours ago.No new Ofgem announcements have been made this week relevant to commercial buyers.

What This Means for Your Business

This morning's Norwegian deal is good news for near-term supply security and should allow the prompt to give back some of this week's risk premium. Buyers who were watching the strike threat closely can breathe slightly easier. But the fundamental picture has not changed: storage is still running below seasonal norms, Middle East tensions are unresolved, and the forward curve remains elevated well above pre-crisis reference points.If you are approaching contract renewal in June or July, current market levels offer a better entry point than late April or early May, but the window can close quickly. The Norwegian story this week was resolved cleanly – the next supply event may not be.The long-dated case remains strong. Cal-27 gas at 93.83 p/therm and Cal-27 power at 84.52 GBP/MWh both represent a genuine discount to current prompt pricing, with the added benefit of budget certainty through 2027. For businesses with the risk appetite and volume flexibility to commit further out, the forward discount is as clear as it has been in some time.If you are on a flexible or pass-through arrangement and want to understand your current market exposure, now is a sensible moment to review.To discuss your procurement options with someone who knows the current market, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 4 June 2026