UK Energy Market Report - 6 July 2026

UK wholesale gas and electricity market update for 6 July 2026, with NBP prices, day-ahead power, Brent crude and procurement guidance.

UK wholesale gas closed the long weekend higher, with the NBP curve lifted by warmer weather forecasts, slower storage injections and broad strength along the forward curve, although prices have eased at the front this morning as liquidity thinned.

Power followed the same pattern, with the forward curve firming while the day-ahead reflected a low-demand holiday weekend, leaving a market that is firmer on the curve but still comfortably supplied from one day to the next.

Gas Market

NBP day-ahead settled at 107.00 p/therm for the 3 July session, a gain of almost 3% on the day, as warmer forecasts and slower injections supported gas-for-power demand. Front-month Aug-26 settled close behind near 107.64 p/therm.

Curve strength was the dominant theme, with both the TTF and NBP month-ahead contracts rising around 1.3%. Traders pointed to stronger gas-fired generation demand during the heatwave, ongoing uncertainty over LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz and short-covering activity as the main drivers behind the move.

This morning the front of the curve has softened, with limited liquidity further out firming the back slightly. The UK gas system opened around 14 mcm/day long, and gas-for-power demand is expected to rise by about 6 mcm/day on the day-ahead, with further gains likely as wind speeds weaken through the week.

Supply remained comfortable. Norwegian exit nominations stood at 328.8 mcm/day according to Gassco, with flows to the UK stable at 70 mcm/day and only Oseberg under maintenance. UK LNG send-out held steady at 8 mcm/day, with one cargo scheduled to arrive at Milford Haven on 16 July.

Further out, the curve firmed with the front. Winter-26 settled around 110.97 p/therm and Summer-27 near 80.21 p/therm, the back of the curve still trading at a clear discount to the prompt.

Electricity Market

UK baseload tracked gas higher across the curve. The day-ahead settled low at £52.57/MWh, reflecting the low-demand holiday weekend and stronger renewables, with current weekday indications back up near £98–99/MWh as the working week resumes.

The forward curve firmed in step with gas. Front-month Aug-26 baseload settled around £96.58/MWh, up about 2.3%, with Q4-26 near £100.83/MWh and Winter-26 around £99.60/MWh.

The supply backdrop stayed tight. A heavy slate of nuclear outages continues, with Heysham 1, Heysham 2, Hartlepool and both Sizewell B units among the capacity offline, leaving the system leaning on gas-fired generation whenever wind dips. Wind output is forecast to weaken through the week, adding to gas-for-power demand.

Summer-27 baseload held near £75.73/MWh, well below the prompt and tracking the longer-term fundamentals rather than the near-term weather.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Crude steadied this morning after OPEC+ agreed to raise production targets by 188,000 barrels per day from August, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Brent settled around $72.12 a barrel for the 3 July session, up modestly on the day.

Carbon firmed, with EUA allowances rising to around €80.60 a tonne and the UK ETS at roughly £56.33. Coal API2 for Cal-27 firmed to about $112.33 a tonne, while Asian JKM LNG held steady at $16.29/MMBtu.

Storage and Supply Outlook

The day-to-day supply picture remains comfortable despite the firmer tone on the curve. The UK system is running modestly long, Norwegian flows are robust and LNG send-out is steady, leaving room to absorb the stronger gas-for-power demand expected as wind eases.

European storage is the key watch-point through the injection season. EU stocks stood at around 49% full on 2 July, roughly 10 percentage points below the same point last year, with net injections continuing to slow. LNG arrivals into northwest Europe remain healthy, though a firm Asian JKM continues to compete for flexible cargoes.

From here the main swing factors are summer weather, the pace of European storage refills and the security of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, any of which could move the prompt sharply.

What This Means for Your Business

This week’s move is a reminder that even a well-supplied market can firm quickly when wind drops and geopolitical risk lingers on the curve. For businesses buying flexible volume, the prompt is again being driven by weather and headlines rather than the underlying trend, so timing matters.

For those weighing longer fixed terms, the continued discount in Summer-27 and Winter-27 to the front of the curve remains the more meaningful signal, and it rewards a planned buying strategy over a reactive one.

With the curve firmer but the fundamentals still comfortable, a clear procurement plan beats chasing the market day to day. To review your position and build an approach that fits your risk profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 3 July 2026