UK Energy Market Report - 7th July 2026

UK wholesale gas and electricity market update for 7 July 2026, with NBP prices, day-ahead power, Brent crude and procurement guidance.

UK wholesale gas settled lower across the curve on 6 July, easing around 2% as warmer weather, comfortable supply and a flat forward curve continued to cap any upside, but the market has flipped sharply this morning with NBP prices surging on fresh attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

Power followed gas lower on the curve at settlement before firming again in early trading on 7 July, leaving a market that looks well supplied on the fundamentals yet increasingly exposed to geopolitical risk at the front end.

Gas Market

NBP day-ahead settled at 104.40 p/therm for the 6 July session, down 2.60 p/therm or roughly 2.4% on the day, as above-seasonal temperatures, a comfortable system and subdued trading activity weighed on the prompt. Front-month Aug-26 settled at 104.61 p/therm, down almost 3%, with the declines carried right along the curve.

That picture has reversed this morning. UK NBP prices have surged across both the spot market and the front of the curve after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards reportedly fired at least two missiles at commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, damaging two ships. Current indications have the day-ahead back up near 108.95 p/therm and Winter-26 close to 112.81 p/therm, though liquidity remains thin at the time of writing.

Fundamentals stayed comfortable underneath the headlines. The UK gas system opened around 15 mcm/day long, and gas-for-power demand is forecast to rise by about 14 mcm/day day-on-day as wind generation falls to roughly 6.8 GW, some 30% lower than the previous day. Wind speeds are expected to recover towards seasonal norms by the weekend.

Supply remained robust. Gassco recorded total Norwegian exit nominations of 332.6 mcm/day, with flows to the UK nominated around 4 mcm/day higher through Langeled. Kårstø extended its ongoing maintenance by a further five days to 12 July, although this is not expected to reduce total exports to the UK, and UK LNG send-out held steady at 8 mcm/day.

Further out, the curve settled lower with the front before this morning’s rebound. Winter-26 closed around 109.02 p/therm and Summer-27 near 79.21 p/therm at settlement, the back of the curve still trading at a clear discount to the prompt.

Electricity Market

UK baseload eased across the forward curve at settlement before tracking gas higher this morning. The day-ahead settled at £98.25/MWh as the working week resumed, with current weekday indications firming towards £111/MWh in early trading as gas strengthened and wind output weakened.

The forward curve edged lower on the day. Front-month Aug-26 baseload settled around £95.50/MWh, with Q4-26 near £99.91/MWh and Winter-26 around £98.77/MWh, each down modestly before the morning firming.

The supply backdrop stayed tight. A heavy slate of nuclear outages continues, with both Sizewell B units, Heysham 1, Heysham 2 and Hartlepool among the capacity offline, leaving the system leaning on gas-fired generation whenever wind dips. With wind forecast to fall further below seasonal norms today, gas-for-power demand is set to climb.

Summer-27 baseload held near £75.52/MWh, well below the prompt and tracking longer-term fundamentals rather than the near-term weather and geopolitical noise.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Crude settled a touch softer for the 6 July session, with Brent at around $71.99 a barrel, before the weekend’s escalation in the Strait of Hormuz reintroduced a clear risk premium into oil and gas alike. The Strait carries roughly a fifth of global oil supply, so any threat to transit tends to move the wider energy complex quickly.

Carbon firmed, with EUA allowances rising to around €81.79 a tonne and the UK ETS up to roughly £57.79. Coal API2 for Cal-27 eased to about $109.90 a tonne, while Asian JKM LNG slipped to $16.07/MMBtu, a firm level that continues to compete with Europe for flexible cargoes.

Storage and Supply Outlook

The day-to-day supply picture remains comfortable despite the sharper geopolitical tone. The UK system is running long, Norwegian flows are robust and LNG send-out is steady, leaving room to absorb the stronger gas-for-power demand expected as wind eases through the week.

European storage is the key watch-point through the injection season. EU stocks passed 50% full on 4 July, but refill progress remains behind the same point last year, and the narrow month-ahead to Winter-26 spread continues to offer limited incentive for additional injections. LNG arrivals into northwest Europe remain healthy, with a steady run of US cargoes scheduled into the Continental terminals over the coming week.

From here the main swing factors are the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, summer weather and the pace of European storage refills, any of which could move the prompt sharply from a fundamentally well-supplied base.

What This Means for Your Business

This morning’s move is a textbook reminder that a well-supplied market can reprice within hours when geopolitical risk flares. Gas had drifted lower for several sessions on comfortable fundamentals, only for a single weekend headline to lift the prompt by several pence overnight, which is exactly the kind of volatility that catches reactive buyers out.

For businesses buying flexible volume, the message is to watch the Strait of Hormuz closely but avoid chasing an illiquid, headline-driven spike. For those weighing longer fixed terms, the continued discount in Summer-27 and Winter-27 to the front of the curve remains the more meaningful signal, and it still rewards a planned approach.

With the fundamentals comfortable but the front end newly exposed to event risk, a clear procurement strategy beats reacting to each day’s headlines. To review your position and build an approach that fits your risk profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 6 July 2026