UK Energy Market Report - 1 October 2026

Every NBP gas contract rises in the last session of the gas year, day-ahead power jumps 36.07% as the wind drops, and Nov-26 ends the week 0.42p above where it started

The 30 September session, the last of the gas year, took back most of the previous day’s fall. All eleven NBP contracts settled higher. Gas day-ahead rose 5.00p to 178.00 p/therm and Nov-26, the front month, gained 6.55p to 183.08p, recovering 72% of the 9.10p it lost on 29 September.

Power moved far harder at the prompt. Day-ahead baseload settled at £160.11/MWh, up £42.44 or 36.07%, for a delivery day when combined wind and solar is forecast to fall to about half of the day before. Day-ahead peak rose £38.67 to £166.00. Ten of the eleven baseload forwards rose.

Set against the 23 September close, a week of large daily swings has left the front of the gas curve almost where it began. Nov-26 is 0.42p higher over the week and Q1-27 0.94p higher. At 09:33 this morning every gas contract and every baseload forward is marked higher again, while day-ahead power is offered a little below its close.

Gas Market

The rise was front-loaded, the mirror image of the previous session’s fall. Nov-26 gained 6.55p to 183.08p, Dec-26 6.31p to 184.73p, Jan-27 6.11p to 185.61p and Q1-27 5.95p to 181.22p. Day-ahead rose 5.00p, or 2.89%, to 178.00p.

Further out the gains shrank quickly. Q2-27 added 2.77p to 136.15p, Summer-27 2.45p to 130.51p and Winter-27 1.44p to 125.45p. The 2028 contracts rose about half a penny each, Summer-28 to 82.30p and Winter-28 to 89.47p, and Summer-29 added 0.37p to 69.62p.

That widened the gap between this winter and next. Q1-27 now stands 55.77p above Winter-27, against 51.26p a session earlier. Over the week since 23 September, Nov-26 is up 0.42p and Q1-27 up 0.94p, while Winter-27 is 1.35p lower and day-ahead 4.25p lower. Nov-26 fell 9.10p and recovered 6.55p inside two sessions and finished the week roughly flat.

Commentary this morning gives three reasons for the rise: unplanned outages at the Norwegian Njord and Troll fields, which curtailed just over 11 mcm/day, a downward revision to near-term temperature forecasts, and buying ahead of winter risk in the final session before the new gas year. The same commentary describes NBP day-ahead as up by over 5%; the settlement table has it up 2.89%, and the table is what is quoted here.

The continental hubs rose further than Britain, with two exceptions. The Dutch TTF gained 11.06p to 184.80p, France’s PEG 10.73p to 182.01p, Germany’s THE 10.02p to 184.67p and Austria’s VTP 9.93p to 187.59p. Italy’s PSV rose 3.97p to 184.59p and Spain’s PVB only 0.92p to 177.71p, against 5.00p for NBP.

So Spain’s PVB is now the cheapest of the seven hubs, 0.29p below NBP, with Britain second. NBP’s discount to TTF widened to 6.80p from 0.74p and it moved from 1.72p above PEG to 4.01p below it. Read across the whole row, Britain got cheaper against four hubs and dearer against two.

The marks published here on 30 September were right on direction and short on size at the front. Day-ahead was indicated at 175.40p and settled 2.60p higher. Nov-26 was marked at 177.65p and settled 5.43p above that, and Q1-27 at 175.95p against 181.22p. Further out they were close: Summer-27 settled 1.31p over its mark and Winter-27 0.05p under.

At 09:33 today every gas contract is marked higher. Day-ahead is indicated at 182.95p, up 4.95p, Nov-26 at 186.84p, Q1-27 at 185.40p, Summer-27 at 134.64p and Winter-27 at 129.80p. The Summer-29 mark of 78.91p is 9.29p above its settlement, which says more about how thinly that contract trades than about its price.

Norwegian exit nominations are running at 321.1 mcm/day this morning, up from 311.5 reported here on 30 September, as Troll capacity returns from maintenance. Commentary puts total exit nominations on 30 September at 307 mcm/day despite the Njord and Troll cuts.

On the 07:00 read Langeled is delivering 66.00 mcm/day, against 42.00 at the same time on 30 September, and Vesterled 8.00 against zero. That is 32 mcm/day more Norwegian gas reaching Britain on a like-for-like basis; the commentary’s figure of around 20 mcm/day is measured against a later reading.

Demand is up. System demand reads 150.74 mcm/day at 07:00, against 127.81 at the same time yesterday, although gas-for-power demand on the day-ahead is down about 10 mcm/day as the wind picks up a little. Exports to Belgium through IUK have eased to 13.60 mcm/day from 19.60, BBL is at zero, UKCS production is 90.40 mcm/day and LNG send-out is 3.20 at Isle of Grain and 5.20 at South Hook. Linepack is 347.01 mcm, up from 327.06, and the system opened about 22 mcm/day long.

Electricity Market

Day-ahead baseload settled at £160.11/MWh, up £42.44 or 36.07%, the highest since the £161.23 of 24 September. Day-ahead peak rose £38.67 or 30.37% to £166.00, which leaves it £5.89 above baseload, down from £9.66 a session earlier.

The last seven sessions of day-ahead baseload read £161.75, £152.55, £161.23, £130.14, £137.00, £117.67 and £160.11. The range across them has narrowed to £44.08 from £80.76, as the £198.43 of 21 September has dropped out of the window.

The forward curve followed gas up, with the winter months doing most. Nov-26 and Dec-26 baseload each gained £4.65, to £150.50 and £148.25, Jan-27 £4.55 to £153.46 and Q1-27 £4.29 to £150.20. Q2-27 rose £1.86 to £107.46, Summer-27 £1.75 to £104.45 and Winter-27 £0.84 to £105.72. Summer-28 added £0.59 to £71.28 and Summer-29 £0.87 to £67.45, while Winter-28 was the one contract to fall, by £0.13 to £80.04.

Over the week Q1-27 baseload is £1.89 above its 23 September close and Winter-27 £1.07 above, so power, like gas, has ended a volatile week a little higher than it started.

Every peak contract rose. Nov-26 peak gained £4.65 to £177.00, Jan-27 £4.57 to £175.81, Dec-26 £4.55 to £172.74 and Q1-27 £4.27 to £172.21, with Winter-27 peak up £0.83 to £123.70. Nov-26 peak sits 17.6% above Nov-26 baseload.

The day-ahead power mark matched its settlement for the second session running. On 30 September day-ahead baseload was offered at £160.00 and settled at £160.11, eleven pence out, after a two-pence miss the session before. The forwards were short this time rather than long: Nov-26 was shown at £147.31 and settled £3.19 higher, and Q1-27 at £147.37 against £150.20. Winter-27 was close, £105.50 against £105.72.

Two close prompt prints in a row do not make the index reliable. The same mark has missed by more than £20 in both directions within the past two months, so it is still quoted here as an indication with its timestamp.

At 09:33 today day-ahead baseload is offered at £156.00, £4.11 below its settlement. Every forward is marked higher: Nov-26 at £155.02, Q1-27 at £154.71, Summer-27 at £109.00 and Winter-27 at £108.75.

The imbalance market settled 30 September with a maximum System Buy Price of £214.95 at 08:14 and a minimum System Sell Price of £3.37 at 09:48. The maximum held exactly at the part-day figure published here yesterday, with its time revised from 08:18 to 08:14. The minimum did not: the part-day row read £22.92, and the day’s floor printed ten minutes after yesterday’s edition was stamped, £19.55 lower.

The times on the earlier rows have shifted in the same way, with 29 September’s £222.00 maximum now stamped 17:14 rather than 17:18, and the prices unchanged. Today’s part-day row reads £209.33 at 07:19 and £63.50 at 02:19, with most of the day still to come.

The wind that drove 30 September’s low price has gone. Combined wind and solar is forecast at about 8,300 MWh today against a seasonal norm near 10,500, rising to about 9,300 on 2 October and then falling to about 6,300 on 3 October, the lowest point of the forecast. It then climbs steadily, passing the seasonal norm around 7 October and reaching about 11,800 by 8 October.

Temperatures are forecast above the seasonal mean on every day to 8 October, about 15°C today against a mean near 13°C, easing to about 12.5°C by 8 October as the gap narrows to around half a degree. Commentary points to a cooler spell next week dipping below seasonal normal; on this chart that has not yet arrived by 8 October.

The nuclear outage table is unchanged at 2,255 MW. Heysham 1 reactor 1 (610 MW) is still listed on the twenty-one-day outage that was due to end on 29 September, so its return remains unconfirmed. Hartlepool 2 (620 MW) is due back on 3 October, the same day a separate 112 MW reduction on Heysham 1 reactor 1 is planned to begin for 96 days.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent settled at $98.03/barrel on 30 September, down $4.56 or 4.44%, its lowest close since 8 September. Sterling firmed 0.0036 against the dollar to 1.3265, so in sterling terms the barrel fell slightly further, 4.71%, to about £73.90.

Oil and gas parted company. Brent, Henry Hub and both carbon allowances fell, while European gas, JKM and coal rose.

EUA Dec-26 slipped €0.86 to €85.09 and UK ETS Dec-26 £0.45 to £61.41, giving back a little of the previous session’s 4.92% jump. At 1.1701 the UK allowance is worth about €71.86, so its discount to the European price narrowed again, to €13.23 from €13.78. This morning the UK allowance is marked at £62.38, back above its close.

Asia’s LNG premium over Britain narrowed. JKM settled at $25.74/MMBtu and NBP spot at $23.61, a gap of $2.13 against $2.54 a session earlier. TTF spot rose more steeply to $24.55, so Britain’s spot discount to the Dutch hub widened to $0.94 from $0.13. Coal API2 Cal-27 rose $1.93 to $136.13/tonne.

Commentary this morning has oil easing back towards $100 as Gulf crude exports recover and an unexpected build in US inventories eases supply concerns. Markets are also weighing renewed US-Iran diplomatic efforts to reduce tension in the Middle East.

Storage and Supply Outlook

British storage slipped another point to 41% on the country map, still the emptiest of the seven readings. The continent again did not move: France 81%, Italy 86%, Spain 73%, Germany 57% and the two overlapping Benelux labels at 57% and 61%. Commentary puts European storage at 71.54% on 30 September, roughly 11% below a year earlier.

Across the British sites only South Hook moved, down a point to 76%. Aldbrough is at 32%, Dragon 33%, Hill Top 3%, Holehouse Farm 70%, HolFord 75%, Hornsea 71%, Isle of Grain 41% and Stublach 51%, all unchanged, with Rough empty and Humbly Grove at 1%. After heavy draws on Hill Top, Aldbrough and Stublach in the previous sessions, withdrawals have paused.

Germany has acted on its own position. Commentary reports that the German government has told its state-owned utility to inject 8 TWh of gas into storage by mid-December to strengthen winter supply. That is extra demand on the same continental market Britain draws on.

The cargo schedule again has no British delivery. Ten cargoes carrying about 904 mcm are due at northwest European terminals between today and 3 October, three of them at Gate and the rest at Dunkirk, Eemshaven, Wilhelmshaven, Fos and Montoir. Seven come from the United States and three have no origin listed. British LNG send-out is forecast at about 5 mcm/day this morning.

Britain therefore enters the new gas year leaning on Norwegian pipeline gas and its own storage. With Norwegian flows recovering, the pipeline side looks firm, but storage at 41% against 57% to 86% on the continent leaves little room for a cold or still spell.

What This Means for Your Business

The reference points for this winter are Nov-26 at 183.08 p/therm and £150.50/MWh, and Q1-27 at 181.22 p/therm and £150.20/MWh. At wholesale that is about 6.2 p/kWh for gas and 15.0 p/kWh for power, before network costs, levies and supplier margin.

The week shows why timing a single purchase is so hard. Nov-26 gas has settled at 182.66p, 190.71p, 183.04p, 185.63p, 176.53p and 183.08p across six sessions, and ends the week 0.42p from where it began. A buyer who fixed on the best day of that run and one who fixed on the worst are about 14p/therm apart. That spread is the case for spreading a winter purchase across several dates rather than betting on one.

The winter after remains the calmer contract. Winter-27 gas moved 1.44p on the day and is 1.35p below its 23 September close, and Q1-27 now sits 55.77p above it. For a contract that runs into 2027 and 2028, current business electricity rates reflect a curve that is far lower and steadier beyond this winter than within it.

Day-ahead power has shown the cost of being unhedged two days running: £117.67 on a windy day, £160.11 on the next, a £42.44 swing driven by the weather, with a still day forecast for 3 October.

From here the risks lean upward. Norwegian supply is recovering, but British storage is at 41% while the continent holds steady, Germany has ordered extra injections, no LNG cargo on the schedule is bound for Britain, and the wind is forecast below normal for most of the coming week. Mild temperatures are the main thing holding demand down, and commentary already points to a cooler spell next week.

If you want to know what these movements mean for your own contract dates and consumption profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report, 30 September 2026