UK Energy Market Report - 10 July 2026
UK wholesale gas and electricity market update for 10th July 2026, with NBP prices, day-ahead power, Brent crude and procurement guidance.
UK wholesale energy markets settled higher on 9 July, with gas leading the move as the day-ahead added roughly 4% on reduced Norwegian supply, a firmer prompt curve and a persistent Middle East risk premium. The Dutch TTF day-ahead pushed above €50/MWh to a one-month high, and the strength ran the length of both the gas and power curves.
The front of the gas curve eased back a few pence in early trade on 10 July as the near-term supply picture loosened, with the UK system opening long, Langeled flows recovering and wind forecast to return above seasonal norms over the weekend. Even so, the balance of risk stays firm while French nuclear outages and shipping concerns in the Strait of Hormuz persist.
Gas Market
NBP settled sharply higher on 9 July, with the day-ahead closing at 121.50 p/therm, up around 4.25 p/therm on the session, while the Dutch TTF day-ahead gained roughly 4% to trade above €50/MWh, its highest in a month. The strength ran the length of the curve: Winter-26 settled near 122.3 p/therm and Winter-27 around 86.4 p/therm, both firmer on the day. Prices eased in early trade on 10 July, with the day-ahead back around 118.5 p/therm and most contracts a few pence lower, although some thinly traded contracts further out firmed on limited liquidity.
The rally was driven by risk and supply rather than demand. Norwegian nominations had fallen by roughly 12 mcm/day, tightening near-term fundamentals, while reports of delays to restarting LNG production at Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility and continued disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz kept a risk premium embedded in the prompt. With the TTF front-month holding a premium to Winter-26, the curve is signalling near-term supply concern and reducing the incentive to inject into storage.
Domestic fundamentals offer a comfortable cushion, which is what allowed prices to ease this morning. The UK gas system opened around 9 mcm/day long and linepack built to roughly 342 mcm. Flows to the UK have risen with Langeled up about 6.5 mcm/day to 50.6 mcm/day, Asgard has returned to service after maintenance and total Norwegian exit nominations stand near 319.8 mcm/day, while UK LNG send-out remains elevated at around 11 mcm/day.
Weather is easing as a bullish factor. Temperatures appear to have peaked yesterday and, while conditions remain warm and above seasonal norms, they are forecast to cool gradually through next week. Wind generation is expected to recover over the weekend and return above seasonal norms, helping to ease gas-for-power demand, which is forecast down about 12 mcm/day to around 29 mcm/day in the day-ahead market.
| Contract | Price (p/therm) | Change vs previous session |
|---|---|---|
| Day-Ahead | 121.50 | ▲ 3.6% |
| Aug-26 | 120.83 | ▲ 3.5% |
| Winter-26 | 122.31 | ▲ 1.7% |
| Summer-27 | 85.86 | ▲ 2.3% |
| Winter-27 | 86.43 | ▲ 2.5% |
Electricity Market
UK power firmed along the curve. The baseload day-ahead settled at £118.02/MWh on 9 July, marginally lower on the session, with the equivalent peak contract at £105.67/MWh, but the forward curve moved higher: Aug-26 settled near £103.4/MWh, Q4-26 around £108.4/MWh and Winter-26 close to £106.8/MWh, each up around £2 on the day. The day-ahead firmed again in early trade on 10 July towards £120/MWh, tracking gas, although liquidity remains thin.
The supply backdrop stays tight. French nuclear output has been reduced again as the heatwave raises river temperatures and constrains cooling, with the Chooz-2 reactor taken offline between 10 and 25 July. At home, a heavy slate of nuclear outages continues, with both Sizewell B units, Heysham 1, Heysham 2 unit 7 and Hartlepool 1 among the capacity offline, and lower hydro availability adds to the strain, leaving the system leaning on gas-fired generation whenever wind dips below seasonal norms.
Further out, Summer-27 baseload sits near £78/MWh and Winter-27 around £80/MWh, both well below the prompt and tracking longer-term fundamentals rather than the near-term weather and geopolitical noise.
Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities
Brent crude settled around $76.30 a barrel, down roughly 2% on the session, but remains up about 5% week-on-week as rising tensions in the Middle East continue to support prices. The Strait of Hormuz carries close to a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil, so any sustained threat to transit tends to move the wider energy complex quickly, and it remains the key barometer of geopolitical risk in the current market.
Carbon was broadly flat, with EUA allowances unchanged at around €79.04 a tonne and the UK ETS marginally firmer near £56.59. Coal API2 for Cal-27 edged up to about $116.49 a tonne. Asian JKM LNG firmed to around $18.23/MMBtu, a level that continues to compete with Europe for flexible cargoes and helps explain why the TTF prompt is holding its premium to the winter.
| Commodity | Price | Change on session |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude (M+1) | $76.30/barrel | ▼ 2.2% |
| Coal API2 (Cal-27) | $116.49/tonne | ▲ 1.3% |
| EUA Carbon (Dec-26) | €79.04/tonne | , 0.0% |
| UK ETS (Dec-26) | £56.59/tonne | ▲ 0.2% |
| JKM LNG (front-month) | $18.23/MMBtu | ▲ 4.4% |
| TTF Gas (day-ahead) | €50/MWh | ▲ 4.0% |
Storage and Supply Outlook
The day-to-day supply picture loosened this morning, which is why the prompt was able to ease. The UK system opened long, linepack is building, Langeled flows have recovered, Asgard is back after maintenance and LNG send-out remains elevated, while the expected recovery in wind over the weekend should take further pressure off gas-fired generation.
European storage remains the key watch-point through the injection season. UK stocks are low at around 20% full, and continental stocks are mixed, with Germany near 42% and France around 49%, keeping the refill task firmly in focus. With the TTF front-month holding a premium to Winter-26, the incentive to inject is reduced, which slows the pace of restocking ahead of winter.
From here the main swing factors are the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the timing of the Qatar Ras Laffan LNG restart, Norwegian availability, the duration of the French nuclear outages and summer weather, any of which could move the prompt sharply from a still-sensitive base.
What This Means for Your Business
The past two sessions are a clean illustration of how quickly a well-supplied market can reprice when supply losses and geopolitical risk arrive together, and how quickly it can retrace. Gas added around 4% on 9 July on Norwegian supply cuts and Middle East risk, only to ease back this morning as domestic fundamentals loosened, which is exactly the kind of two-way volatility that catches reactive buyers out.
For businesses buying flexible volume, the message is to watch the Strait of Hormuz, the Qatar LNG restart and the French nuclear schedule closely, but to avoid chasing an illiquid, headline-driven spike, as this morning’s pullback shows how quickly sentiment can turn. For those weighing longer fixed terms, the continued discount in Summer-27 and Winter-27 to the front of the curve remains the more meaningful signal, and it still rewards a planned approach.
With the fundamentals still workable but the front end exposed to event risk, a clear procurement strategy beats reacting to each day’s headlines. To review your position and build an approach that fits your risk profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.
Previous report: UK Energy Market Report, 9 July 2026
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