UK Energy Market Report - 11 September 2026

NBP day-ahead settles above 200p a therm, day-ahead power adds 7.6%, and Brent jumps 6% to 107 dollars

Thursday 10 September took NBP day-ahead through 200 p/therm. It settled at 205.25p, up 7.60p or 3.85%, the highest settlement this report has carried, and all eleven gas contracts rose with it for a second session running.

Power rose further in percentage terms. Day-ahead baseload settled at £176.00/MWh, up £12.50 or 7.65%, and day-ahead peak at £174.94/MWh, up £19.17 or 12.31%. Every baseload and every peak contract settled higher.

Brent added $6.42 or 6.34% to $107.63 a barrel. Thursday came down to tighter Norwegian supply, weaker renewables and continued geopolitical risk, with the TTF front month at its highest since 29 December 2022.

Gas Market

NBP day-ahead has now risen on five consecutive sessions, from 175.50p on 3 September to 205.25p, a gain of 29.75p. Winter-26 has kept pace, from 178.45p to 205.97p.

The whole of the coming winter now sits above 200p. Dec-26 is the dearest contract at 209.11p, Q4-26 settled at 207.32p and Oct-26 at 205.07p, while Q1-27 made the largest move on the board, up 8.30p to 204.58p. Further out, Summer-27 added 5.55p to 136.52p and Winter-27 4.16p to 129.25p.

Yesterday’s indications were low again, and by more. This report published 09:42 marks of 200.40p day-ahead, 200.80p on Winter-26 and 202.20p on Q4-26; those settled at 205.25p, 205.97p and 207.32p, between 4.85p and 5.17p under. Summer-27 was flagged here as a thin quote at 138.00p. It settled at 136.52p, so the warning was right about the level and wrong to dismiss the move: a 4.24% rise, level with Q1-27 as the largest percentage gain on the board.

This morning the front of the curve is softening. At 09:38 day-ahead was marked at 199.84p, Winter-26 at 201.76p and Q4-26 at 202.93p, between 4.21p and 5.41p below Thursday’s close. Winter-28 is marked 8.41p above settlement at 96.74p, the same kind of thin far-curve print that read 97.99p on Wednesday morning and settled at 86.78p.

The physical system is looser than the price. On a like-for-like 07:00 comparison with the figures published here yesterday, demand is 0.41 mcm/day lower at 104.12, linepack 8.78 mcm higher at 349.10 and UKCS production 4.60 higher at 86.50. LNG sendout is unchanged at 8.10. The system opened 19 mcm/day long, against 9 yesterday.

Norwegian flows into Britain are up 5.00 mcm/day on the same basis, all of it Langeled, at 22.00. Vesterled and Flags read zero at 07:00 on both days but ran at 20.00 in Thursday’s 14:00 read, so treat the morning figure as a snapshot. Gassco exit nominations are 291.9 mcm/day against 293.4 yesterday, with maintenance continuing through the month.

Britain is still the cheapest of the seven European hubs, at 205.25p against France’s PEG at 206.95p, TTF at 208.45p and Italy’s PSV dearest at 218.43p. The discount to TTF narrowed to 3.20p from 3.61p. Spain’s PVB, second cheapest a session ago, is now sixth at 210.17p.

Electricity Market

Day-ahead baseload has risen for four consecutive sessions, from £72.76/MWh last Friday to £176.00/MWh, a gain of 142%. The pace picked up again on Thursday, 7.65% after 5.86%, having slowed for the two sessions before.

Peak settled below baseload for an eighth consecutive session, but only just: £1.06, against £7.73 on Wednesday. The run since 1 September reads £2.29, £23.34, £28.88, £27.92, £17.91, £1.61, £7.73 and £1.06. It remains a prompt-only effect. Oct-26 peak settled at £179.00 against £156.75 baseload.

Winter-26 baseload rose for a fifth session, up £5.38 to £163.99 and £18.94 higher across the run. Q1-27 added £5.48 to £164.48 and Q4-26 £5.26 to £163.50. Oct-26, up £4.75 to £156.75, is still the cheapest of the winter months and now sits £19.25 below the day-ahead.

Yesterday’s power index was close on the prompt and low behind it. This report published 09:42 marks of £176.50 day-ahead, which settled at £176.00, and £161.00 on each of Q4-26, Winter-26 and Q1-27. Three contracts on one round number looked thin, and all three settled £2.50 to £3.48 higher.

This morning day-ahead baseload is offered at £116.00, £60.00 below settlement and the largest gap in either table. Most of the rest of the baseload column is marked at settlement to the penny, which says little had traded by 09:38, and liquidity is thin. It is an indication with a timestamp and nothing more.

The imbalance market produced another large miss, and it contradicted a line published here yesterday. The part-day row for Thursday showed a floor of £125.10 at 03:18. Thursday settled at £6.54 at 12:48, £118.56 lower. This report said negative midday pricing had gone out of this market; a price near zero at lunchtime says it has not. The ceiling was closer, £219.00 at 19:18 against a part-day £209.90.

Today’s part-day row reads £225.28 at 07:18 and £133.40 at 00:19, covering the first 18 settlement periods. Neither end is a settled number.

Nuclear availability is unchanged, with five units carrying 2,345 MW of outages. That rises on Monday 14 September, when Hartlepool 2 goes fully offline for a planned 16-day outage as its 240 MW unplanned reduction ends, adding 380 MW.

Wind is the swing factor into next week, and the forecast has changed shape since yesterday. Combined wind and solar is forecast near 11,900 MWh tomorrow, then drops to about 6,800 on Sunday, well under a seasonal norm near 10,100, before running far above it from Tuesday: about 14,700 on the 15th and 15,900 on the 17th. Yesterday’s edition had the weekend above norm and the 17th below it.

The UK temperature chart runs above the seasonal mean every day to 17 September, peaking near 18°C on Monday the 14th, and meets the mean on the 18th. Nothing in it is buying gas for heating yet.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent settled at $107.63/barrel, up $6.42 or 6.34%. Overnight, Houthi forces seized the Yemeni Red Sea port of Mocha, and President Trump said he expects the Iran conflict to continue until after the US midterm elections. Prices eased this morning, but Brent is on track to end the week above $100.

JKM front month added $0.76 or 2.72% to $28.72/MMBtu. Its premium over NBP spot at $27.73 narrowed to $0.99 from $1.19, so the price Asia pays over Britain for a cargo has eased slightly. Henry Hub spot slipped to $2.76, and none of the gas move is American.

Carbon lagged the fuels again. EUA Dec-26 rose €0.25 to €85.82 and UK ETS Dec-26 £0.93 to £62.54. At Thursday’s rate of 1.1639 the UK contract is worth about €72.79, a discount of €13.03 to the EUA, narrowed from €13.84. That gap has closed by €0.81 in a session, which matters to anyone reporting carbon costs in sterling.

Sterling eased to 1.1639 against the euro and 1.3508 against the dollar, a small extra cost on dollar-priced oil and LNG.

Storage and Supply Outlook

European storage was 67.3% full on 8 September, up from 67.1% a day earlier, well below typical seasonal levels.

The country map is unchanged: Italy 83%, France and Spain 73%, Germany 54% and Britain 49%, with the two Benelux figures at 49% and 57%. Their labels overlap on the source map, so we are not going to guess which of the Netherlands and Belgium holds which.

Mid-September is still injection season, and four British sites moved the other way. Stublach, Aldbrough, South Hook and Isle of Grain each read a point lower than yesterday’s edition, at 75%, 52%, 61% and 30%. HolFord holds 75%, Holehouse Farm 70% and Hornsea 58%, while Rough and Humbly Grove are still empty.

Ten LNG cargoes are booked into northwest European terminals between today and 17 September, about 923 mcm, seven of them from the United States. None is on the list for a UK terminal, but South Hook expects the Minerva Roxanne early next week, with UK sendout nominated flat at 8 mcm/day.

Britain is still exporting, at 11.16 mcm/day to the Netherlands through BBL, and the Belgian interconnector has been idle since early September.

What This Means for Your Business

The numbers to plan around are Winter-26 at 205.97 p/therm and £163.99/MWh, roughly 7.0p/kWh for gas and 16.4p/kWh for power at wholesale, before network charges, levies and supplier margin. Both have risen on five consecutive sessions, gas by 27.52p and power by £18.94.

The curve shape keeps widening. Winter-27 settled at 129.25 p/therm and £108.67/MWh, 76.72p and £55.32 cheaper than the winter in front of it, up from 72.97p and £53.14 a session earlier. The market is pricing this winter as a crisis and the next as something closer to normal. That is why a 24-month price, which blends the two, deserves a place next to any twelve-month quote this autumn.

Nothing in the physical data is forcing this. Britain opened 19 mcm/day long, UK temperatures are above normal and wind runs far above norm from Tuesday. The price is being set by Norwegian maintenance, the Iran conflict and a continent short of storage, which is why the gas price a business can fix could move just as fast the other way. Fixing a whole winter’s volume on one day of a five-session rally is the riskiest way to buy it.

If you want to know what these movements mean for your own contract dates and consumption profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 10 September 2026