UK Energy Market Report: 13 July 2026

UK wholesale gas and electricity market update for 13 July 2026, with NBP prices, day-ahead power, Brent crude and procurement guidance.

UK wholesale energy markets have opened the week firmer after a sharp two-way swing. Prices fell hard on 10 July as improved Norwegian pipeline flows, stronger LNG arrivals and softer weather forecasts loosened the near-term picture, only to rebound through the curve this morning as a renewed escalation in the Middle East returned a risk premium to the front of both the gas and power markets.

The NBP day-ahead had settled at 117.30 p/therm on 10 July, down around 3.5% on the session, but was trading close to 122 p/therm in early business on 13 July. The move is being driven by geopolitics rather than fundamentals, which remain comfortable, so the strength is best read as an event premium on an otherwise well-supplied market.

Gas Market

NBP settled sharply lower on 10 July, with the day-ahead closing at 117.30 p/therm, down around 4.2 p/therm on the session, while the Dutch TTF day-ahead eased roughly 4% to around €48/MWh. The weakness ran the length of the curve, with Winter-26 settling near 118.75 p/therm and Winter-27 around 85.9 p/therm, both softer on the day. That picture reversed this morning: the day-ahead was trading close to 122.15 p/therm and Winter-26 near 123.3 p/therm, each up around 4% as the market repriced weekend developments.

The sell-off on Friday was a fundamentals story. Norwegian exports recovered to about 322 mcm/day, up roughly 5% on the day as disruption at the Oseberg and Asgard fields eased, while European LNG deliveries strengthened to around 490 mcm. Softer weather revisions across Northwest Europe, profit taking and continued LNG transits through the Strait of Hormuz all added to the downward pressure.

This morning’s rebound is a risk story. Tensions escalated over the weekend after US strikes on Iranian targets were followed by Iranian attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, and Tehran again stated that the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Market signals remain mixed, with at least one laden Qatari LNG cargo reported to be transiting the Strait with its tracking switched off, so the escalation is likely to weigh more on sentiment and risk premium than on immediate physical flows. Underlying supply is, if anything, slightly more comfortable, with Norwegian exports up around a further 3 mcm/day on Friday and European LNG send-out expected to rise by roughly 200 GWh/day.

Weather is turning into a supportive factor again. The latest forecasts point to temperatures well above seasonal norms this week, with a peak expected around 16 July and warmer than normal conditions signalled through August, which lifts cooling-related gas-for-power demand across the continent.

Electricity Market

UK power tracked gas in both directions. The baseload day-ahead settled at £106.95/MWh on 10 July, down more than £11 on the session, with the equivalent peak contract at £94.39/MWh, as the softer gas prompt and comfortable supply fed through. The forward curve was steadier, with Q4-26 baseload settling around £106.2/MWh and Winter-26 near £104.6/MWh. The day-ahead firmed again this morning towards £114.75/MWh, following gas higher, although liquidity is thin at this stage of the session.

The supply backdrop stays tight into the heat. French nuclear availability is back in focus after the operator confirmed the 1.3 GW Golfech 2 reactor will remain offline until 19 July because of high cooling-water temperatures, which supports French gas-fired generation and lends indirect support to neighbouring power markets. At home, a heavy slate of nuclear outages continues, with both Sizewell B units, Hartlepool, Heysham 2 unit 7 and part of Heysham 1 among the capacity offline, leaving the system leaning on gas whenever wind dips below seasonal norms.

Further out, Summer-27 baseload sits near £78/MWh and Winter-27 around £80/MWh, both well below the prompt and tracking longer-term fundamentals rather than the near-term weather and geopolitical noise.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent crude settled around $76.01 a barrel on 10 July, little changed on the session, and remains the key barometer of geopolitical risk in the current market. With the Strait of Hormuz carrying close to a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil, this weekend’s escalation keeps a floor under the wider energy complex even where physical flows continue for now.

Carbon was broadly flat, with EUA allowances a touch firmer at around €79.20 a tonne and the UK ETS marginally softer near £56.40. Coal API2 for Cal-27 eased to about $114.42 a tonne. Asian JKM LNG slipped to around $17.57/MMBtu, though it continues to compete with Europe for flexible cargoes, which is part of why the European gas curve holds a risk premium further out.

Storage and Supply Outlook

The day-to-day supply picture is comfortable, which is why Friday’s move was able to run. Norwegian flows have recovered, LNG send-out is strong and the UK system opened well supplied, with linepack building above 356 mcm and Langeled flows up sharply on the day. That leaves the near-term balance loose and the current strength resting largely on geopolitical risk rather than any physical shortage.

European storage remains the key medium-term watch-point. EU inventories stand near 52% full, but net injections have slowed to around 2.44 TWh/day, leaving refill rates below the pace required to reach the EU’s 90% target by 1 November. That shortfall continues to underpin Winter-26 and keeps a risk premium embedded further along the curve, and UK stocks remain low by seasonal standards.

From here the main swing factors are the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the durability of the Iran-related escalation, Norwegian availability, the French nuclear schedule and the extent of the summer heat, any of which could move the prompt sharply from a still-sensitive base.

What This Means for Your Business

The past two sessions are a clean illustration of how quickly a well-supplied market can reprice in both directions. Gas fell around 3.5% on 10 July as fundamentals loosened, then rebounded roughly 4% this morning on a weekend geopolitical shock, which is exactly the kind of two-way volatility that catches reactive buyers out.

For businesses buying flexible volume, the message is to watch the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Iran situation closely, but to avoid chasing an illiquid, headline-driven spike, as Friday’s sell-off shows how quickly the premium can drain away when supply is comfortable. For those weighing longer fixed terms, the continued discount in Summer-27 and Winter-27 to the front of the curve remains the more meaningful signal, and it still rewards a planned approach.

With the fundamentals still workable but the front end exposed to event risk, a clear procurement strategy beats reacting to each day’s headlines. To review your position and build an approach that fits your risk profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report, 10 July 2026