UK Energy Market Report - 14 September 2026

NBP day-ahead slips back under 200p a therm, day-ahead power falls by a third, and this morning’s marks point higher again

Gas Market

Day-ahead had risen on five consecutive sessions, from 175.50p on 3 September to 205.25p on Thursday. Friday gave back 6.45p of that 29.75p. Winter-26 fell 5.93p to 200.04p and is still 21.59p above where the run began.

The front of the curve took the largest falls. Oct-26 dropped 6.81p to 198.26p and Q4-26 6.26p to 201.06p, while Summer-27 lost only 1.61p to 134.90p and Winter-27 1.16p to 128.09p. Dec-26 is still the dearest contract at 203.19p.

Friday came down to improving Norwegian supply and a warmer outlook for northwest Europe. Norwegian nominations reached 292.6 mcm/day on 11 September, around 10 above the September average, and maintenance curtailments were forecast to ease from 86.6 mcm/day that day to 64.0 by 16 September.

Friday’s indications called the direction and were a little high on the level. This report published 09:38 marks of 199.84p day-ahead, 201.76p on Winter-26 and 202.93p on Q4-26. Those settled at 198.80p, 200.04p and 201.06p, between 1.04p and 1.87p over, after a miss of around 5p the session before.

This morning the marks point back up. At 09:37 day-ahead was marked at 208.75p, Winter-26 at 211.16p and Q4-26 at 211.84p, each 10p to 11p above Friday’s close and above Thursday’s too. The move follows postponed talks between Iran and Gulf states and further attacks near two of the region’s main oil transit routes, on limited liquidity.

Winter-28 is marked at 97.59p against an 87.74p settlement. Wednesday and Friday mornings carried 97.99p and 96.74p and settled at 86.78p and 87.74p, so treat that one as a stale quote.

In Norway, the Ormen Lange outage stays unplanned today, cutting flows by around 15 mcm/day, and becomes planned from tomorrow at about 8. Gassco exit nominations are 288 mcm/day, against 291.9 on Friday. Britain opened 11 mcm/day long, against 19 on Friday.

At 07:00 demand read 115.03 mcm/day, 10.91 above Friday’s figure, while UKCS production was 5.30 lower at 81.20 and linepack 29.68 mcm lower at 319.42. Langeled is up 3.00 at 25.00. Britain is exporting 14.49 mcm/day to the Netherlands through BBL, up from 11.16.

Britain is still the cheapest of the seven European hubs. NBP at 198.80p sits below France’s PEG at 201.08p and TTF at 201.66p, with Italy’s PSV dearest at 218.18p. The discount to TTF narrowed to 2.86p from 3.20p. PSV slipped just 0.25p on Friday, while NBP, PEG, TTF and Spain’s PVB each fell between 5.37p and 6.79p.

Electricity Market

Day-ahead baseload had risen for four sessions, from £72.76/MWh on 4 September to £176.00. Friday took £58.66 off it in one session, leaving it below the £127.62 of Monday 7 September.

Peak settled below baseload for a ninth consecutive session, and by the widest margin of the run: £47.66, against £1.06 on Thursday and a previous high of £28.88 on 3 September. It remains a prompt-only effect. Oct-26 peak settled at £175.25 against £153.00 baseload.

The forward curve fell by far less. Oct-26 baseload lost £3.75 to £153.00, Q4-26 £3.84 to £159.66 and Winter-26 £3.03 to £160.95, ending a five-session rise that had added £18.94.

Summer-27 was the one riser, up £0.48 to £108.48, which leaves it £0.65 above Winter-27 at £107.83. A summer baseload contract priced above the winter after it is an unusual shape, and a thin one to read much into.

Friday’s morning offer of £116.00 for day-ahead baseload, £60.00 under Thursday’s close, was published here as an indication and nothing more. It settled at £117.34, £1.34 away. The same index missed by £35.50 in August, so one close print does not change how we quote it.

This morning day-ahead baseload is offered at £167.00, £49.66 above Friday, with Q4-26 at £168.75 and Winter-26 at £170.00. The peak column is blank apart from Winter-27 at £132.00, on limited liquidity.

Friday’s part-day imbalance row missed at both ends. It showed a ceiling of £225.28 and a floor of £133.40; Friday settled at £249.00 at 16:14 and £121.00 at 22:45, out by £23.72 and £12.40.

The weekend confirmed the correction this report made on Friday about negative midday pricing. Saturday 12 September settled at a floor of minus £67.50 at 14:14. Sunday carried the highest ceiling in the table, £276.80 at 18:48, on the day Friday’s forecast had wind and solar well under norm. Today’s part-day row reads £240.00 at 06:48 and £135.00 at 03:18, and neither is a settled number.

Nuclear outages rose to 2,725 MW across five units today as Hartlepool 2 went fully offline for a planned 16-day outage, adding 380 MW. Torness 1 and Heysham 1 unit 1 are both scheduled back around 25 September, though Heysham 1 unit 1 is then planned to run 112 MW short from 29 September.

Wind turns in buyers’ favour from tomorrow. Combined wind and solar is forecast near 9,200 MWh today, under a seasonal norm near 10,150, then above it every day to 21 September, peaking near 15,900 on the 17th. Day-ahead gas-for-power demand is expected to fall by 5 mcm/day as wind picks up.

The UK temperature chart peaks near 18°C today, more than 3°C above the seasonal mean, and eases back to the mean by 18 September. The latest long-range run is warmer than the one before it.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent settled at $104.61/barrel on Friday, down $3.02 or 2.81%, after Thursday’s 6.34% jump. Oil is firming again this morning, after the postponed Iran talks and continued attacks around the region’s oil transit routes.

JKM front month fell $0.83 or 2.89% to $27.89/MMBtu, keeping its premium over NBP spot at $1.02, against $0.99. The JKM premium over TTF for October delivery is $1.23, so Europe and Asia are still competing for the same cargoes.

Carbon barely moved. EUA Dec-26 slipped €0.30 to €85.52 and UK ETS Dec-26 £0.09 to £62.45. At Friday’s rate of 1.1653 the UK contract is worth about €72.77, a discount of €12.75 to the EUA, narrower again from €13.03.

Sterling firmed to 1.1653 against the euro and 1.3518 against the dollar, a small help on dollar-priced oil and LNG.

Storage and Supply Outlook

The country storage map moved up almost everywhere since Friday’s edition. Italy reads 84%, France 75%, Spain 73%, Germany 55% and Britain 49%, with the two overlapping Benelux labels at 51% and 59%. Only Britain and Spain are unchanged.

Within Britain the salt caverns filled while the LNG terminals drew down. Stublach rose three points to 78%, Hornsea two to 60% and Aldbrough one to 53%, while South Hook fell three to 58% and Isle of Grain one to 29%. HolFord holds 75% and Holehouse Farm 70%, and Rough and Humbly Grove are still empty.

LNG arrivals into Europe fell to 293.4 mcm/day on 11 September, down around 26% on the day. Ten cargoes, about 909 mcm, are booked into northwest European terminals between today and 18 September, six from the United States and one from Russia into Montoir. None is for a UK terminal.

UK sendout is expected at 9 mcm/day today, led by South Hook at 6 after the Minerva Roxanne arrived.

What This Means for Your Business

The numbers to plan around are Winter-26 at 200.04 p/therm and £160.95/MWh, roughly 6.8p/kWh for gas and 16.1p/kWh for power at wholesale, before network charges, levies and supplier margin. Friday took 5.93p and £3.03 off them, a fraction of the 27.52p and £18.94 the five sessions before had added.

Day-ahead power fell by a third on Friday; Winter-26 power fell by less than 2%. The prompt is swinging on one day’s wind, sunshine and demand, while the electricity price a business actually contracts on is moving with Norway, the Middle East and storage. This morning’s marks already put Winter-26 back above Thursday’s close on both fuels.

The gap between this winter and next narrowed on Friday, to 71.95p on gas and £53.12 on power, from 76.72p and £55.32. It is still wide enough that a 24-month price deserves a place next to any twelve-month quote this autumn.

A down day like Friday is what buying in tranches is built for. It lets a business take part of its winter volume when the curve dips, without staking the whole requirement on one close.

If you want to know what these movements mean for your own contract dates and consumption profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report, 11 September 2026