UK Energy Market Report - 15 September 2026

Every gas and power contract rises, NBP day-ahead sets a new high for the run, and the front of the gas curve eases back this morning

Monday 14 September recovered Friday’s fall and went further. NBP day-ahead settled at 207.35 p/therm, up 8.55p or 4.30%, above Thursday’s 205.25p and the highest settlement of this run.

Every contract rose: all eleven on the NBP curve, all eleven baseload and all eleven peak. Day-ahead baseload settled at £166.56/MWh, up £49.22 or 41.9%, and day-ahead peak at £159.21/MWh, up £89.53.

Brent added $1.07 to $105.68 a barrel. The Dutch TTF hub reached its highest level in almost four years, though this morning’s gas marks ease back at the front of the curve.

Gas Market

Day-ahead now stands 31.85p above the 175.50p of 3 September, and Monday recovered Friday’s 6.45p fall with 2.10p to spare. Winter-26 rose 7.46p to 207.50p, clear of Thursday’s 205.97p.

The winter strip carried the move. Q1-27 rose 7.79p to 206.79p, Dec-26 7.34p to 210.53p, still the dearest contract, and Q4-26 7.15p to 208.21p. Summer-27 added only 1.86p to 136.76p and Winter-27 0.97p to 129.06p.

TTF day-ahead was assessed at €84.20/MWh on 14 September, up €3.80, on concern over winter supply. Norwegian nominations were 293.1 mcm/day that day, 44.6 of it to Britain, despite an unplanned 14.9 mcm/day cut at Ormen Lange. Planned maintenance is expected to take out 45.8 to 75.8 mcm/day of Norwegian capacity for the rest of the week, roughly 12% to 19%.

Yesterday’s indications called the direction and ran high on the level. This report published 09:37 marks of 208.75p day-ahead, 211.16p on Winter-26 and 211.84p on Q4-26. Those settled at 207.35p, 207.50p and 208.21p, over by 1.40p, 3.66p and 3.63p. Friday’s marks were also high, by 1.04p to 1.87p.

This morning the front softens. At 09:33 day-ahead was marked at 203.27p, down 4.08p, with Q4-26 at 207.09p and Winter-26 at 206.69p. Winter-27 was marked 2.94p higher at 132.00p, on limited liquidity further out. Summer-28 is marked at 105.45p against an 80.75p settlement, which is a stale quote, not a price.

Britain opened 32 mcm/day long. At 07:00 demand read 99.67 mcm/day, 13.85 below yesterday afternoon’s reading, with UKCS production up 10.50 at 91.50 and linepack up 36.79 mcm at 361.17. Langeled rose 7.00 to 32.00 while Vesterled fell 11.00 to 4.00, and exports to the Netherlands through BBL rose to 15.89 mcm/day.

Later nominations put flows to Britain 9 mcm/day higher this morning, led by Langeled. The Nyhamna outage, now cutting around 20 mcm/day, is expected to have no impact from tomorrow.

Britain is still the cheapest of the seven European hubs. NBP at 207.35p sits below TTF at 210.84p and Germany’s THE at 211.33p, with Italy’s PSV dearest at 217.62p. Six hubs rose by between 8.55p and 10.95p, NBP at the bottom of that range and France’s PEG at the top, while PSV slipped 0.56p. The discount to TTF widened to 3.49p from 2.86p.

Electricity Market

Day-ahead baseload recovered £49.22 of Friday’s £58.66 fall, settling at £166.56/MWh, still £9.44 under Thursday’s £176.00. Day-ahead peak more than doubled, from £69.68 to £159.21.

Peak settled below baseload for a tenth consecutive session, but the gap closed to £7.35 from Friday’s £47.66, the widest of the run. It is still a prompt-only effect: Oct-26 peak settled at £181.30 against £158.00 baseload.

The forward curve made back more than Friday took off. Oct-26 baseload rose £5.00 to £158.00, Nov-26 £5.72 to £169.22, Q4-26 £5.39 to £165.05 and Winter-26 £5.27 to £166.22, above Thursday’s £163.98.

Summer-27 rose £1.27 to £109.75 and Winter-27 £0.86 to £108.69, so the summer contract sits above the winter after it for a second session, now by £1.06.

Yesterday’s power offers followed the same pattern as gas. Day-ahead baseload was offered at £167.00 and settled at £166.56, £0.44 away, but Q4-26 at £168.75 and Winter-26 at £170.00 settled £3.70 and £3.78 lower. The one peak mark, Winter-27 at £132.00, settled at £125.52.

This morning day-ahead baseload is offered at £172.00, £5.44 above Monday’s close, and Dec-26 at £174.00. Winter-26 is offered £0.97 lower at £165.25. The front of the power curve is not following gas lower on the 09:33 offers, so treat this morning’s direction as unsettled.

Monday’s part-day imbalance row missed on the ceiling again. It showed £240.00 at 06:48 and a floor of £135.00; Monday settled at £270.00 at 18:49 and £133.10 at 12:18, out by £30.00 and £1.90. Today’s row reads £218.25 and £125.70, with a time of maximum of 23:48 on figures stamped 09:33, so neither is a settled number.

Nuclear outages hold at 2,725 MW across five units, with Torness 1 and Heysham 1 unit 1 scheduled back around 25 September. In France, available nuclear capacity is down about 5.1 GW and industrial action has spread to gas infrastructure.

The wind forecast has changed shape again. Yesterday’s forecast put combined wind and solar near 9,200 MWh today, under the seasonal norm; today’s puts it near 14,800. It dips to the norm of about 10,200 tomorrow, runs above it to 20 September with a peak near 16,000 on the 19th, then drops under it around 21 September, to about 6,900 by the 22nd.

The temperature chart shows about 17°C today, nearly 3°C above the seasonal mean, and stays above the mean every day to 22 September. Day-ahead gas-for-power demand is forecast flat despite slightly lower wind speeds.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent settled at $105.68/barrel on Monday, up $1.07 or 1.02%. The Oman-hosted Gulf meeting on the Strait of Hormuz remains postponed indefinitely as Saudi Arabia faces further Houthi attacks, and oil has eased slightly this morning from yesterday’s intraday four-month high.

JKM front month rose $1.00 or 3.59% to $28.89/MMBtu. NBP spot rose $1.11 to $27.98, so Asia’s premium over Britain narrowed to $0.91 from $1.02, and the two regions are still bidding for the same cargoes.

Carbon was the bigger mover. EUA Dec-26 rose €2.47 to €87.99 while UK ETS Dec-26 added just £0.11 to £62.56. At Monday’s rate of 1.1683 the UK contract is worth about €73.09, a discount of €14.90 to the EUA, wider than Friday’s €12.75.

Sterling firmed to 1.1683 against the euro but eased to 1.3495 against the dollar, which takes a little off the help on dollar-priced oil and LNG.

Storage and Supply Outlook

The country storage map is little changed from yesterday. Italy reads 84%, France 75%, Spain 73%, Germany 55% and Britain 50%, with the two overlapping Benelux labels at 51% and 59%.

Within Britain, Aldbrough gave up four points to 49% and Stublach one to 77%, while Hornsea rose one to 61%. South Hook and Isle of Grain each slipped a point, to 57% and 28%. HolFord holds 75% and Holehouse Farm 70%, and Rough and Humbly Grove are still empty.

Ten cargoes, about 913 mcm, are booked into northwest European terminals between 16 and 19 September: six from the United States, two from Russia into Montoir and Gate, one from Algeria into Fos and one from Norway into Zeebrugge. None is for a UK terminal.

UK sendout is expected at 9 mcm/day today. At 07:00 South Hook was sending out 6.50 mcm/day and Isle of Grain 2.50.

What This Means for Your Business

The numbers to plan around are Winter-26 at 207.50 p/therm and £166.22/MWh, roughly 7.1p/kWh for gas and 16.6p/kWh for power at wholesale, before network charges, levies and supplier margin. Monday added 7.46p and £5.27, more than Friday took off, and both now sit above Thursday’s close.

The gap between this winter and next widened again, to 78.44p on gas and £57.53 on power, from 71.95p and £53.12. While it stays this wide, a 24-month price deserves a place next to any twelve-month quote.

With TTF at its highest in almost four years and Norwegian maintenance running all week, what a business pays for gas this winter is being set by supply risk, not by today’s weather. A softer day-ahead mark this morning is no reason to expect the winter strip to follow.

British generators pay UK ETS prices, not EU ones, so the wider €14.90 discount is a small offset on this side of the Channel. Reporting your carbon position next to your energy costs shows how much of a bill is carbon rather than fuel.

If you want to know what these movements mean for your own contract dates and consumption profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report, 14 September 2026