UK Energy Market Report - 16 July 2026

UK wholesale gas and electricity market update for 16 July 2026, with NBP prices, day-ahead power, Brent crude and procurement guidance.

UK wholesale energy markets extended their rally on 15 July, with gas and power settling higher for a second consecutive session and the Dutch TTF day-ahead reaching its strongest level since late March. The drivers are stacking up rather than rotating: low storage, weak injection rates, falling wind output and a persistent geopolitical risk premium are all pulling in the same direction.

The NBP day-ahead settled at 132.25 p/therm, up 3.25 p/therm or around 2.5% on the session, while UK baseload power settled at £133.00/MWh, up £9.00 or more than 7%. The front has eased back slightly this morning, but the wider curve is holding its gains, which tells you the market is repricing risk rather than reacting to a single day’s weather.

Gas Market

NBP settled higher across the board on 15 July. The day-ahead closed at 132.25 p/therm, up 3.25 p/therm on the session, with Aug-26 at 130.88 p/therm, Winter-26 at 133.27 p/therm, Q1-27 at 131.70 p/therm and Summer-27 at 93.97 p/therm, each up between 2.1% and 2.6%. The Dutch TTF day-ahead was assessed at €54.47/MWh, roughly 3.2% higher on the day and its highest level since 30 March.

Prompt strength was demand-led. National Gas projected UK demand to rise by around 5.3 mcm/day to 160 mcm/day, while wind generation was expected to fall by roughly 36% to 3.1 GW. Weaker renewable output lifts gas-fired generation requirements directly, and with Northwest Europe staying warmer than seasonal norms there was little relief on the demand side.

Supply itself is not the problem. Norwegian continental shelf exports reached 330.6 mcm/day on 15 July with flows to the UK rising to 73.2 mcm/day, a healthy level. The concern sits with LNG: deliveries to Europe were nominated at just 70 mcm/day, around half the previous day’s level, and Asian JKM strengthened to near $19.93/MMBtu, keeping Asia in active competition for flexible cargoes. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to underpin sentiment further along the curve.

This morning the front has softened slightly, with the day-ahead near 130.6 p/therm, though the curve remains supported. The UK system opened around 15 mcm/day long on increased UKCS receipts and higher storage withdrawals, with UKCS production up 5.5 mcm/day to 91.2 mcm/day and linepack building to 346 mcm. Norwegian flows to the UK are nominated at 67 mcm/day and UK LNG sendout is recorded at 9 mcm/day. With the NBP day-ahead trading at a discount to TTF, the IUK and BBL pipelines continue to export to the continent.

Electricity Market

UK power again moved harder than gas at the prompt. The baseload day-ahead settled at £133.00/MWh on 15 July, up £9.00 or more than 7% on the session, with the equivalent peak contract at £119.65/MWh, up £5.80. The curve firmed more modestly: Q4-26 baseload settled at £116.89/MWh and Winter-26 at £115.60/MWh, both up around 2.1% to 2.5%, while Summer-27 sits near £83.91/MWh and Winter-27 around £84.80/MWh.

The nuclear picture remains the structural weak point. Both Sizewell B units and Hartlepool 1 are offline, part of Heysham 1 is derated, and Heysham 2 unit 7 remains on an unplanned outage that is scheduled to extend for a further 33 days from 20 July. Torness 2 then goes offline from 31 July on a planned outage. That is a substantial slice of firm baseload absent through the back half of summer, leaving the system leaning more heavily on gas-fired generation whenever wind drops away.

The prompt has stabilised this morning, with baseload broadly flat and the current day-ahead offer nearer £125/MWh. Gas-for-power demand is expected to reach around 28 mcm/day on the day-ahead as wind output recovers and solar runs above normal, which is taking some heat out of the front. Imbalance pricing also settled down, with the maximum system buy price on 16 July at £138.00/MWh against £220.00/MWh on 13 July, pointing to a calmer balancing picture than earlier in the week.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent crude settled at $84.95 a barrel on 15 July, up marginally on the session but holding the sharp gains of recent sessions and remaining the clearest barometer of geopolitical risk in the current market. Prices are supported this morning by continued Middle East uncertainty, with attention now widening to the risk of disruption to Red Sea shipping. Any escalation involving attacks on those trade routes would tighten global energy balances and feed straight back into European gas.

Carbon was mixed. EUA allowances eased around 0.3% to roughly €81.16 a tonne, while the UK ETS pushed 3.3% higher to about £60.18, narrowing the gap to the European market. Coal API2 for Cal-27 was essentially flat at $118.18 a tonne. Sterling firmed against both the euro and the dollar, closing at 1.1752 and 1.3539 respectively, which takes a small amount of the edge off euro-denominated import costs.

Storage and Supply Outlook

Storage is now the dominant medium-term concern. EU gas inventories stood at 52.6% full on 13 July, around 10.5 percentage points below year-ago levels. More telling is the pace of refill: net injections totalled 3.2 TWh, roughly 22% lower than the previous day. Europe is not just behind, it is filling more slowly than it needs to, and every week that pattern persists tightens the arithmetic for reaching a comfortable position by the start of winter.

UK site storage tells a similar story, with Rough at zero, Aldbrough at 18% and Stublach at 31%, leaving limited domestic flexibility to lean on. Day-to-day supply, by contrast, remains solid: Norwegian exports are running above 330 mcm/day, UKCS production is rising and linepack is building. The tension between a comfortable prompt and an uncomfortable winter balance is precisely what is keeping Winter-26 bid at a premium to the summer contracts.

The swing factors from here are LNG availability into Europe, the security of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping, the pace of European injections through the remainder of the summer window, and the UK nuclear return schedule. The near-term physical picture is workable, but the market has very little slack to absorb a fresh disruption.

What This Means for Your Business

Two sessions of gains have taken the gas day-ahead above 132 p/therm and baseload power to £133/MWh, and the important detail is that the whole curve moved, not just the prompt. Winter-26 gas at 133.27 p/therm and Winter-26 baseload at £115.60/MWh reflect a market pricing genuine uncertainty about storage and LNG through the coming winter, rather than a passing weather story that will unwind next week.

For businesses with flexible volume to place, this is a market that rewards patience over reaction. The front has already eased this morning and prompt spikes driven by wind and headlines tend to fade when physical supply stays comfortable, as it currently is. Chasing a rally two days in is rarely the right entry point.

For those looking further out, the shape of the curve remains the more useful signal. Summer-27 gas near 94 p/therm and Summer-27 baseload around £84/MWh sit well below the front, and that discount is the reason a planned, staged approach to longer-term cover continues to beat a single decision taken under pressure. To review your position and build an approach that fits your risk profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report, 15 July 2026