UK Energy Market Report - 16 September 2026

NBP day-ahead gives back all of Monday’s rise, the forward curves ease on both fuels, and Brent climbs the other way

Gas Market

Over the last two sessions day-ahead has gone from 198.80p to 207.35p and back to 197.50p. Winter-26 fell 5.98p to 201.53p, which keeps 1.49p of Monday’s 7.46p rise and leaves it above Friday’s 200.04p.

The front took the biggest falls again. Oct-26 dropped 6.78p to 198.41p, Q4-26 6.44p to 201.76p and Q1-27 5.50p to 201.29p. Summer-27 lost 2.01p to 134.75p and Winter-27 1.62p to 127.44p, while the 2028 pair moved by pennies.

TTF day-ahead fell €3.03, or 3.6%, to €81.18/MWh. Norwegian nominations rose about 2% to 300 mcm/day on 15 September, with deliveries to Britain up about 9% to 48.5. Northern European temperatures were forecast at the five-year average, more than 3°C colder than the previous forecast, yet the market read the day as supply easing and took some of the geopolitical premium out.

Yesterday’s indications called the direction and badly understated the size. This report published 09:33 marks of 203.27p day-ahead, 206.69p on Winter-26 and 207.09p on Q4-26. Those settled at 197.50p, 201.53p and 201.76p, over by 5.77p, 5.16p and 5.33p. Winter-27 was marked 2.94p higher at 132.00p and settled 1.62p lower at 127.44p.

This morning the front is steady. At 09:32 day-ahead was marked at 197.40p, down 0.10p, with Winter-26 at 200.75p and Q4-26 at 201.36p. Summer-27 and Winter-27 are marked 1.25p and 1.06p higher, on limited liquidity. Summer-28 is marked at 104.00p against an 80.81p settlement, the same stale quote as yesterday.

Norway has turned against Britain overnight. A new outage at Nyhamna, which began today, is cutting 38.8 mcm/day, and unplanned work at Troll a further 25. Exit nominations are down to 280.9 mcm/day. Yesterday’s report said the earlier Nyhamna outage would have no impact from today; this is a different and larger one.

On a like-for-like 07:00 comparison with yesterday’s figures, Langeled is down 19.00 at 13.00 mcm/day and Vesterled flat at 4.00. Demand is 9.39 higher at 109.06, UKCS production 4.00 higher at 95.50 and linepack 7.71 mcm lower at 353.46. Britain opened 17 mcm/day long, against 32 yesterday, and is still exporting 15.99 mcm/day to the Netherlands through BBL.

Britain is still the cheapest of the seven European hubs, and fell further than TTF. NBP at 197.50p sits below TTF at 203.50p and Germany’s THE at 203.88p, with Spain’s PVB now dearest at 208.12p. TTF fell 7.34p and Italy’s PSV 11.45p to 206.17p. The discount to TTF widened to 6.00p from 3.49p.

Electricity Market

Peak settled above baseload for the first time since 28 August, by £4.67. That ends a run of ten consecutive sessions with peak below baseload, which began on 1 September and peaked at a £47.66 gap on Friday 11 September.

The prompt rose while the curve fell. Oct-26 baseload lost £5.48 to £152.52, Nov-26 £5.88 to £163.34, Q4-26 £5.52 to £159.53 and Winter-26 £5.17 to £161.05. Monday’s £5.27 rise on Winter-26 has almost all gone. Oct-26 is now £18.65 below the day-ahead.

Summer-27 fell £2.69 to £107.06 and Winter-27 £2.45 to £106.24, so the summer contract sits above the winter after it for a third session, by £0.82.

Yesterday this report said the front of the power curve was not following gas lower and called the direction unsettled. It followed. Day-ahead baseload was offered at £172.00 and settled £0.83 lower, but Winter-26 at £165.25 settled £4.20 lower and Dec-26 at £174.00 settled at £162.86, £11.14 away.

This morning day-ahead baseload is offered at £112.00, £59.17 under settlement, while the forward column is marked £0.48 to £2.40 higher, Dec-26 aside at £9.63 up, and Q4-26 and Q1-27 sit on round numbers of £161.00 and £165.00. The last offer this far under settlement, on 11 September, landed within £1.34. It is still an indication and nothing more.

The imbalance market missed at the floor by more than £100. Yesterday’s part-day row showed £218.25 and £125.70; Tuesday settled at a maximum of £270.00 at 17:48 and a minimum of £21.43 at 10:49, out by £51.75 and £104.27. Today’s row reads £191.87 at 06:18 and £55.00 at 04:19, and neither is a settled number.

The wind forecast has changed shape for a third day. Yesterday it put combined wind and solar near 14,800 MWh today; today’s forecast has it at the seasonal norm of about 10,200, before a rise to about 15,200 tomorrow and a peak near 16,000 on 19 September. It falls under the norm around 21 September and to about 6,800 by the 23rd. Gas-for-power demand is expected to fall 12 mcm/day on the day-ahead.

The UK temperature chart shows about 15°C today against a mean near 14°C, dips to the mean on 18 September and rises to about 17°C on the 19th. Nuclear outages hold at 2,725 MW across five units.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent settled at $108.75/barrel on Tuesday, up $3.07 or 2.91%, above the $107.63 of 10 September. It has eased this morning on reports that Saudi Arabia is offering additional crude cargoes through Oman, though Saudi forces also reported intercepting Houthi drones launched south of Mecca.

JKM front month fell $1.13 to $27.77/MMBtu, less than NBP spot, which dropped $1.37 to $26.61. Asia’s premium over Britain widened to $1.16 from $0.91, which makes a spare cargo a little harder to pull this way.

Both carbon markets gave back Monday’s gains and more. EUA Dec-26 fell €2.38 to €85.61 and UK ETS Dec-26 £1.91 to £60.65. At 1.1685 the UK contract is worth about €70.87, a discount of €14.74 to the EUA, little changed from €14.90.

Sterling was flat at 1.1685 against the euro and slipped to 1.3474 against the dollar, a small extra cost on dollar-priced oil and LNG.

Storage and Supply Outlook

The country storage map is unchanged for a second day: Italy 84%, France 75%, Spain 73%, Germany 55% and Britain 50%, with the two overlapping Benelux labels at 51% and 59%.

Within Britain, Stublach slipped a point to 76% and South Hook two to 55%. Aldbrough holds 49%, Hornsea 61%, HolFord 75%, Holehouse Farm 70%, Hill Top 35% and Isle of Grain 28%, while Rough and Humbly Grove are still empty.

Ten cargoes, about 925 mcm, are booked into northwest European terminals between 16 and 19 September: five from the United States, two from Russia into Montoir and Gate, and one each from Norway, Algeria and Australia. None is for a UK terminal.

UK LNG sendout is steady at around 10 mcm/day. At 07:00 South Hook was sending out 6.50 mcm/day and Isle of Grain 3.20.

What This Means for Your Business

The numbers to plan around are Winter-26 at 201.53 p/therm and £161.05/MWh, roughly 6.9p/kWh for gas and 16.1p/kWh for power at wholesale, before network charges, levies and supplier margin. Across Monday and Tuesday they moved up 7.46p and £5.27, then down 5.98p and £5.17.

That is a winter price swinging by around 3% a day with nothing settled underneath it. Norway’s supply was stronger yesterday and is weaker this morning, and Brent rose on a day gas fell. Buying in stages exists for markets like this: it spreads the price risk across several dates rather than one close.

The gap between this winter and next narrowed to 74.09p on gas and £54.81 on power, from 78.44p and £57.53. It is still wide enough that a 24-month price deserves a place next to any twelve-month quote.

Tomorrow’s day-ahead offer of £112.00 against Tuesday’s £171.17 shows how far one windy day moves the prompt. For a business on a flexible or pass-through electricity contract, that swing reaches the bill directly; for a fixed contract, the forward curve is the number that counts.

If you want to know what these movements mean for your own contract dates and consumption profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report, 15 September 2026