UK Energy Market Report - 17 July 2026

UK wholesale gas and electricity market update for 17 July 2026, with NBP prices, day-ahead power, Brent crude and procurement guidance.

UK wholesale markets paused on 16 July after two sessions of gains, then resumed climbing this morning. The NBP day-ahead settled marginally lower at 131.80 p/therm and UK baseload power fell back sharply to £124.67/MWh, but neither move survived the overnight news. In early trade on 17 July gas is indicated around 4 p/therm higher right across the curve, with power following it up.

The reason is the same one that has driven this market all week. The exchange of strikes between the United States and Iran has now run into a sixth night, and with EU storage more than ten percentage points behind last year, the market has very little tolerance for fresh disruption. The physical picture in the UK is genuinely comfortable today. The price is not being set by it.

Gas Market

The 16 July settlement was a mixed picture rather than a reversal. The NBP day-ahead closed at 131.80 p/therm, down just 0.45 p/therm on the session, while the forward contracts edged higher: Aug-26 settled at 131.98 p/therm, Winter-26 at 133.86 p/therm and Q1-27 at 132.09 p/therm, each up between 0.3% and 0.8%. Further out, the seasonal contracts eased, with Summer-27 at 93.15 p/therm and Winter-27 at 91.26 p/therm. Continental hubs held a premium to the UK, with TTF assessed at 136.14 p/therm against the NBP at 131.80 p/therm.

That NBP discount to TTF matters for flows. Both the IUK and BBL interconnectors continue to export, with 34.7 mcm/day heading to Belgium and 16.4 mcm/day to the Netherlands, drawing gas away from the UK system even while our own supply is healthy.

Supply into the UK is the strong point today. The system opened around 15 mcm/day long, UKCS production is up 4.9 mcm/day to 95.0 mcm/day as the Barrow North outage concludes, and Norwegian flows to the UK are nominated at 69 mcm/day via Langeled, Vesterled and Flags. Total Norwegian exports to Europe are running at 328 mcm/day according to network operator Gassco. System demand has dropped 10.8 mcm/day to 142.2 mcm/day and linepack is holding steady at 344 mcm. UK LNG sendout has slipped slightly to around 8 mcm/day, though a 104 mcm cargo is due at South Hook today.

The demand-side risk sits with wind. Gas-for-power demand is forecast at 33 mcm/day on the day-ahead as wind generation steps down, and the latest EC46 run shows temperatures dipping slightly over the weekend before rising again at the start of next week. This morning that has combined with the geopolitical premium to lift the day-ahead to roughly 135.9 p/therm and Winter-26 to around 138.1 p/therm.

Electricity Market

Power gave back most of Wednesday’s spike at settlement. The baseload day-ahead settled at £124.67/MWh on 16 July, down £8.33 or 6.3% on the session, with the equivalent peak contract at £113.94/MWh, down £5.71. The curve barely moved: Aug-26 baseload settled at £112.50/MWh, Q4-26 at £116.67/MWh and Winter-26 at £115.29/MWh, all within a third of a percent of the previous close. Summer-27 sits at £82.73/MWh and Summer-28 down at £62.64/MWh.

The prompt has already turned back up this morning, with the day-ahead indicated near £130/MWh and Winter-26 offered around £118/MWh. Balancing told the calmer story overnight, with the maximum system buy price on 17 July at £149.00/MWh against £212.00/MWh the day before, but that reflects a well-supplied night rather than an easing of the underlying picture.

Nuclear remains the structural gap and it is not improving. Both Sizewell B units and Hartlepool 1 are offline, Hartlepool 2 and part of Heysham 1 are derated, and Heysham 2 unit 7 is on an unplanned outage that extends for a further 33 days from 20 July. Torness 2 then comes off for a planned 18-day outage from 31 July. Across the Channel the position tightened further, with the French nuclear operator announcing a 10-day outage at Flamanville-3 and delaying the restart of Cattenom-4, which lifted French power and reduces the scope for cheap imports through the interconnectors when we need them.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent crude settled at $84.23 a barrel on 16 July, down 0.72 on the session, but has edged higher this morning and is on course for its largest weekly gain since April. Oil remains the cleanest read on how the market is pricing Middle East risk, and the direction of travel this week has been one way.

Carbon moved the other way, and sharply. EUA allowances fell 2.4% to roughly €79.19 a tonne and the UK ETS dropped 3.4% to about £58.13, widening the gap between the two schemes again after Wednesday’s narrowing. Coal API2 for Cal-27 was near flat at $118.59 a tonne. Asian JKM was unchanged at $19.93/MMBtu, which keeps Asia in the frame for flexible cargoes and caps how much LNG relief Europe can expect. Sterling firmed against the euro at 1.1782 and softened against the dollar at 1.3476.

Storage and Supply Outlook

Storage is the reason this market will not settle. EU inventories stood at just 52.8% full on 14 July, more than ten percentage points below year-ago levels, and injection rates have continued to run below both seasonal and historical averages. The shortfall is not being closed. Every week that Europe refills more slowly than it needs to, the arithmetic for reaching a workable position by 1 November gets harder, and that pressure lands on the winter contracts rather than the prompt.

UK site storage offers little cushion. Rough and Humbly Grove are both empty, Aldbrough sits at 17%, Hill Top at 16%, Hornsea at 20% and Stublach at 30%. The healthier readings are the LNG terminals, with Isle of Grain at 63% and South Hook at 62%, and those are working stock rather than seasonal reserve. LNG imports into Continental Europe also softened, running well below June averages, though the arrivals schedule improves next week with US cargoes due at Gate, Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbuttel between 21 and 23 July.

The swing factors from here are unchanged: the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, LNG availability into Northwest Europe, the pace of European injections through what remains of the summer window, and the UK nuclear return schedule. Day-to-day supply is comfortable. The margin for error is not.

What This Means for Your Business

The useful signal this week is not the daily direction, it is what refuses to fall. The prompt has swung around by 6% or more in a session in both directions, but Winter-26 gas has held near 134 p/therm and Winter-26 baseload near £115/MWh throughout. That is a market pricing a storage and supply-security problem for the coming winter, not a weather story that unwinds next week.

For businesses with volume to place in the near term, the prompt is being driven by headlines and wind forecasts, and it has now moved sharply in both directions within three sessions. Reacting to a morning quote in that environment rarely rewards you. Physical supply into the UK is comfortable today, which is what tends to pull spikes back when the news flow settles.

For anyone able to look past this winter, the shape of the curve remains the more important number. Summer-27 gas at 93.15 p/therm and Summer-27 baseload at £82.73/MWh sit far below a front trading in the mid-130s and a Winter-26 near £115/MWh, and Summer-28 is lower again at 64.87 p/therm. If your renewal date allows you to reach beyond Winter-26, the back of the curve is offering a discount the front simply is not. To review your contract dates against this curve and build a staged approach that fits your risk profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 16 July 2026