UK Energy Market Report - 18 June 2026

UK wholesale gas and electricity market update for 18 June 2026, with NBP prices, day-ahead power, Brent crude and procurement guidance.

UK wholesale energy prices extended their slide on 18 June, with the near curve leading the way down as a US and Iran framework deal stripped a chunk of geopolitical risk out of the market.

Warmer weather, healthier renewable output and a wave of hedge selling all added to the bearish tone. The longer-dated curve held up far better, a reminder that this looks like near-term relief rather than a structural reset.

Gas Market

NBP day-ahead settled around 98.60 p/therm, down close to 10% on the week. The front-month July contract did most of the running, off more than 11% as traders unwound length built up during the early-June Middle East scare.

The drivers are stacking up on the bearish side. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days has eased fears over LNG and oil shipping, and rising UK temperatures are trimming residential heating demand.

Norwegian flows have recovered toward 290 mcm/day after Aasta Hansteen returned, which keeps near-term supply comfortable.

Further out, Winter-26 held above 103 p/therm and Cal-27 barely moved, slipping just 3% on the week. The shape of the curve tells the story: the market is pricing temporary relief, not a lasting fall in the cost of energy.

Electricity Market

Day-ahead baseload power eased to around 100.80 £/MWh, tracking gas lower and helped by a stronger wind and solar picture.

Better renewable forecasts cut the day-ahead gas-for-power call to roughly 18 mcm/day, easing CCGT running back toward 30% of the mix after a spell where gas plant was covering close to a third of demand on weak wind.

The forward power curve mirrored gas, with July near 90 £/MWh and Winter-26 holding around 94 £/MWh. As with gas, the front of the curve has come off faster than the back, so the spread between prompt and long-dated power has narrowed.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Crude led the wider commodity complex lower. Brent fell 2.49% to settle near $77.57 a barrel, with WTI off 1.70% at around $75.49, as the prospect of Iranian barrels returning to market took hold.

European carbon was the lone gainer, with EUA allowances edging up 0.18% to just under €80 a tonne. TTF gas fell 2.45% to €40.89/MWh, confirming the softer mood right across the continent.

Storage and Supply Outlook

EU gas storage continues to refill through the injection season, sitting in the high-50s percent and climbing as cheaper gas encourages buyers to stock up ahead of next winter.

With Norwegian supply restored and LNG sendout into north-west Europe steadier, the supply side looks well covered for the time of year. The main swing factor from here is weather and how aggressively storage is topped up over the summer.

What This Means for Your Business

The split between a softer prompt and a firmer long-dated curve is the key takeaway. If you are buying short-term flexible volume, the recent fall is welcome and worth capturing.

For businesses looking to lock in longer fixed terms, the modest move in Cal-27 shows how little of this relief has reached the back of the curve. Patience may pay, but only if you have a clear view on risk appetite and budget certainty.

Timing a purchase around moves like this is exactly where independent advice earns its keep. To review your position and build a strategy that fits your risk profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 17 June 2026