UK Energy Market Report - 18 September 2026

NBP gas slips for a third session, day-ahead baseload falls to a two-week low while peak climbs, and the winter power strip gives back more ground

Gas Market

Day-ahead has now lost 15.75p over three sessions from the 207.35p it reached on 14 September. Winter-26 has fallen in each of those sessions as well, shedding 14.86p, and at 192.64p it is at its lowest since 8 September.

The losses were concentrated in the winter months. Dec-26 gave up 3.39p to 195.28p, Nov-26 3.31p to 193.81p and Q1-27 3.15p to 192.00p. Summer-27 lost 2.16p to 130.52p and Winter-27 1.03p to 125.76p.

Every European hub fell and Britain fell least. TTF dropped 4.28p to 193.23p, cutting the NBP discount to the Dutch hub to 1.63p from 3.91p. The south fell hardest: Italy’s PSV lost 12.73p to 201.23p and Spain’s PVB 9.79p to 201.81p, which leaves Spain the dearest of the seven hubs. NBP is still the cheapest, 1.48p under France’s PEG.

The morning marks overshot the close for a fifth straight session. At 09:33 yesterday this report gave 194.75p for day-ahead, 197.62p for Winter-26 and 197.22p for Q1-27; they settled 3.15p, 4.98p and 5.22p lower. Summer-27 and Winter-27 finished 1.98p and 1.59p under their marks.

At 08:58 this morning the marks are higher across the curve: day-ahead 198.03p, up 6.43p, Winter-26 196.90p, up 4.26p, and Q1-27 196.50p, up 4.50p. After five sessions of marks landing above settlement, read that as a direction and nothing firmer.

Norway is still short of the Troll volumes. Unplanned maintenance at the field, which followed a compressor failure, has been extended through 25 September with about 46 mcm/day curtailed. Two outages are due to end sooner: Kollsnes is expected back today, returning around 16 mcm/day, and Sleipner work is expected to finish on 20 September, adding roughly 11 mcm/day.

At the 07:00 read Langeled was delivering 8.00 mcm/day into Britain, from nothing a day earlier, while Vesterled dropped to zero from 4.00. Against the previous 07:00 figures, demand is 22.84 lower at 86.66 mcm/day, UKCS production 4.30 higher at 93.30 and linepack 30.27 higher at 351.09, and the system opened long. Exports to the Netherlands through BBL eased to 9.31 from 16.10.

Electricity Market

Peak settled below baseload for a second session, though the gap closed to £18.45 from £33.36 as the two prices moved in opposite directions. Baseload at £103.95 is the lowest day-ahead settlement since 4 September.

The forward curve gave up more ground. Oct-26 baseload fell £2.67 to £147.31, Q4-26 £3.08 to £153.41 and Winter-26 £5.25 to £154.59. Q1-27 took the heaviest fall on the curve, £7.48 to £155.79, more than reversing its rise of a session earlier. Oct-26 baseload now sits £43.36 above the day-ahead.

Summer-27 baseload fell £1.77 to £103.48 and Winter-27 £1.52 to £104.48, leaving the winter contract £1.00 above the summer. On the peak side Oct-26 lost £2.49 to £168.91.

The morning offers were too high again. The 09:33 day-ahead baseload offer of £112.00 carried here yesterday settled £8.05 lower, Winter-26 at £163.04 settled £8.45 lower and Q4-26 at £159.62 £6.21 lower. That is the fourth session in a row in which the forward baseload marks have overshot the close.

At 08:58 day-ahead baseload is offered at £29.00/MWh, £74.95 under settlement, and day-ahead peak at £16.00. With strong wind forecast for Saturday 19 September and little traded so far, treat both as indications. Forward baseload is marked £0.54 to £4.71 higher, with Winter-26 at £159.23.

The imbalance market held at the top and missed at the bottom. The part-day row published here yesterday read £204.40 at the top and £24.44 at the bottom. The 17 September settlement kept the £204.40 maximum, now stamped 06:45, but the minimum fell to minus £10.98 at 09:19, £35.42 below the part-day figure. This morning’s part-day row shows £186.25 at 05:48 and £49.58 at 07:48, and neither is settled.

Wind is still setting the tone. Combined wind and solar generation is forecast at about 14,300 MWh today against a seasonal norm near 10,300, rising to around 16,000 on 19 September. It then drops sharply, below the norm from around 21 September and down to roughly 6,800 on the 22nd and 23rd, before recovering towards 8,800 by the 25th. The shape matches the previous forecast.

Temperatures are forecast above the seasonal mean on every day to 25 September, with a high point of about 17°C on the 19th against a mean near 14°C. Nuclear outages are unchanged at 2,725 MW across five units; Torness 1 and Heysham 1 reactor 1 are scheduled back around 25 September and Hartlepool 2 at the end of the month.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent settled at $104.82/barrel on 17 September, down $1.01 or 0.95%, a second fall from the month’s highest close of $108.75 on 15 September. Calmer conditions in the Middle East and a slightly better supply picture took some of the risk premium out, although the price remains above $100.

JKM front month fell $0.48 to $26.75/MMBtu and NBP spot $0.32 to $25.59, so Asia’s premium over Britain narrowed to $1.16 from $1.32. TTF spot lost $0.73 to $25.85 and Henry Hub $0.10 to $2.90.

EUA Dec-26 gained €1.29 to €86.03 while UK ETS Dec-26 added only £0.11 to £59.76. At 1.1651 the UK allowance is worth about €69.63, a €16.40 discount to the EUA, up from €15.17 a session earlier.

Sterling eased 0.0012 to 1.1651 against the euro and 0.0026 to 1.3355 against the dollar.

Storage and Supply Outlook

The country storage map did not move: Britain 51%, Italy 84%, France 75%, Spain 73% and Germany 55%, with the two Benelux labels at 51% and 59%. European storage stood at 68.66% full on 15 September.

South Hook led the British sites, up seven points to 72%, and Hornsea added a point to 63%, while Hill Top slipped two points to 38%. Stublach (79%), HolFord (75%), Holehouse Farm (70%), Aldbrough (53%), Dragon (33%) and Isle of Grain (27%) were unchanged, and Rough and Humbly Grove remain empty.

UK LNG sendout held at 8.10 mcm/day at 07:00, with South Hook at 4.90 and Isle of Grain at 3.20.

Ten cargoes carrying about 851 mcm are due at northwest European terminals between 18 and 21 September: four from the United States, two from Russia, one each from Algeria, Australia and the Republic of Congo, and one with no origin listed. None is bound for a British terminal.

What This Means for Your Business

For fixed-price buyers the reference points are Winter-26 at 192.64 p/therm and £154.59/MWh, about 6.6p/kWh for gas and 15.5p/kWh for power at wholesale, before network costs, levies and supplier margin. Since 14 September Winter-26 gas has come down 14.86p and Winter-26 power £11.63.

Three falling sessions have taken Winter-26 gas back within 3.24p of its 8 September settlement. A dip like this is where buying in tranches earns its keep: part of the winter volume can be fixed at the lower level without staking the whole requirement on a single day.

The supply side gives little reason to assume the fall carries on. Wind is forecast to drop below its norm from around 21 September, which raises gas burn in power stations, the Troll outage now runs to 25 September, and no LNG cargo is booked for a British terminal over the next four days.

The gap between Winter-26 and Winter-27 narrowed to 66.88p on gas and £50.11 on power, from 69.00p and £53.84. For anyone comparing business electricity quotes for an autumn renewal, a 24-month price is still worth setting beside the twelve-month one.

If you want to know what these movements mean for your own contract dates and consumption profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report, 17 September 2026