UK Energy Market Report - 19 June 2026
UK wholesale gas and electricity market update for 19 June 2026, with NBP prices, day-ahead power, Brent crude and procurement guidance.
UK wholesale energy ends the week sharply lower, with day-ahead gas down more than 12% and power off 7% since last Friday. A framework deal between the United States and Iran has drained the Middle East risk premium that had inflated prices through early June.
Friday brought a small reversal. News that the next round of US and Iran talks has been pushed back put a little risk back into the prompt this morning, lifting gas and power off their lows. The bounce is modest, and the wider picture is still one of relief rather than a fresh upward trend.
Gas Market
NBP day-ahead settled around 99.60 p/therm, down roughly 12% on the week. Friday saw a slight intraday bid as traders priced the delay to US and Iran negotiations, but the move did little to dent the week’s heavy falls.
The bearish drivers remain firmly in place. Easing fears over LNG and oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have removed the war premium, and unseasonably warm weather across the UK and Europe is trimming heating demand.
Supply is comfortable. Norwegian flows have recovered after the Oseberg outage, with Gassco exit nominations back above 305 mcm/day and Langeled deliveries to the UK climbing. UK LNG send-out is holding near 9 mcm/day, though a firm JKM premium continues to pull flexible cargoes toward Asia.
Further out, the curve tells a different story. Winter-26 held above 103 p/therm and Cal-27 slipped just 3.5% on the week. The market is pricing temporary relief at the front, not a lasting fall in the cost of energy.
| Contract | Price (p/therm) | Change (week) |
|---|---|---|
| Day-Ahead | 99.60 | ▼ 12.3% |
| Jul-26 | 96.69 | ▼ 11.5% |
| Q3-26 | 97.57 | ▼ 10.5% |
| Winter-26 | 103.11 | ▼ 6.5% |
| Cal-27 (long-dated) | 85.73 | ▼ 3.5% |
Electricity Market
Day-ahead baseload power eased to around £97.40/MWh, down about 7% on the week as it tracked gas lower and leaned on healthier renewable output.
Wind has provided more cover this week after a long stretch of weak output left gas plant carrying close to a third of demand. Better wind and solar forecasts have trimmed the day-ahead gas-for-power call and eased CCGT running back down the merit order.
The forward curve mirrored gas. July power sits near £91/MWh and Winter-26 holds around £95/MWh. As with gas, the prompt has fallen faster than the back of the curve, so the gap between near-term and long-dated power has narrowed again.
Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities
Crude steadied on Friday after a brutal week. Brent had dropped below $78 a barrel on Thursday, its lowest since early March, as the prospect of Iranian barrels returning to market took hold. The delay to talks nudged Brent back up about 0.85% to near $78.40, with WTI around $76.10.
European carbon firmed slightly, with EUA allowances up 0.30% to just over €73 a tonne. TTF gas rose 0.60% to €41.60/MWh, recovering a fraction of the week’s losses but still well below where it started.
| Commodity | Price | Change (day) |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $78.40/barrel | +0.85% |
| WTI | $76.10/barrel | +0.75% |
| EUA Carbon (Dec-26) | €73.20/tonne | +0.30% |
| JKM LNG (front-month) | $12.10/MMBtu | — |
| TTF Gas (front-month) | €41.60/MWh | +0.60% |
Storage and Supply Outlook
EU gas storage continues to refill through the injection season, sitting in the high-50s percent and climbing as cheaper gas encourages buyers to build stock ahead of next winter.
With Norwegian supply restored and LNG arrivals into north-west Europe steady, the supply side looks well covered for the time of year. The main swing factors from here are summer weather and how hard storage is pushed toward full over the coming months.
On the policy front, Ofgem continues to weigh a single entry and exit tariff for the gas grid, part of a wider push to make the UK a more attractive route for LNG transiting to Europe.
What This Means for Your Business
The split between a much softer prompt and a steadier long-dated curve is the key takeaway from this week. If you are buying short-term flexible volume, the fall is real and worth capturing while it lasts.
For businesses weighing longer fixed terms, the modest move in Cal-27 shows how little of this relief has reached the back of the curve. Friday’s small rebound is a reminder of how quickly a single geopolitical headline can put a bid back into the market.
Timing a purchase around moves like this is exactly where independent advice earns its keep. To review your position and build a strategy that fits your risk profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.
Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 18 June 2026