Daily Energy Market Report - 19th May 2026

Gas prices hold near multi-week highs as Australian LNG strike looms, Hormuz risk persists and Ofgem announcement approaches

UK energy markets opened the new week with prices holding near multi-week highs, as three converging risks keep near-term contracts under sustained pressure.

The Australian LNG strike enters its final 24 hours before its scheduled start on 20 May, the Strait of Hormuz crisis remains unresolved, and UK gas storage sits at a critically thin 10%, the lowest in Europe.

With UK gas now up 50% year-on-year, the structural shift in the market is becoming impossible to ignore.

Gas Market – Elevated and Watching Wednesday

NBP day-ahead gas is trading around 124p/therm, slightly below Friday’s 128.5p spike but still posting a 12% weekly gain and a near 25% rise over the past month.

Near-curve contracts from Jun-26 through Winter-26 are all clustered tightly in the 121-123p range, reflecting a market that sees no meaningful supply relief on the near-term horizon.

The most immediate catalyst is the Australian LNG strike, due to begin 20 May.

Workers at a major export facility have confirmed industrial action, which threatens to remove a significant volume of global LNG supply at precisely the moment European buyers are already scrambling for alternatives to constrained Hormuz flows. If the strike proceeds, further near-term price support is likely.

The Hormuz situation itself remains the dominant structural driver. Around 20% of the world’s LNG trade previously transited this waterway, and with no peace talks making progress and President Trump’s weekend comments signalling continued pressure on Iran, the risk premium is not going away quickly.

Norwegian pipeline flows via Langeled remain steady, but the UK’s limited storage capacity – just 0.9 bcm total, means there is no seasonal buffer to draw on during supply shocks.

Longer-dated contracts are rising more slowly: Cal-28 at around 72p is up approximately 2% on the week. That backwardation from spot still represents meaningful value for businesses able to look beyond the immediate crisis.

Electricity Market: Spot Eases, Forwards Hold Firm

UK power spot prices have pulled back from Friday’s near-18% intraday surge, with wind generation recovering somewhat after the sharp collapse earlier in the week. However, the forward curve tells a more persistent story: Jun-26 baseload is holding around £102/MWh (+11% on the week), Winter-26 at £101/MWh (+7%), and even Cal-28 power continues to edge higher.

Solar output is providing some offset to reduced wind, moderating the spot market relative to gas.

But with gas input costs firmly anchored above 120p/therm for all near-term delivery periods, the floor under forward power contracts remains high. Any further wind reduction or demand uplift from cold weather would quickly translate back into spot spikes.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Commodity	Price	Change (day)
Brent Crude	$108/barrel	▲ +0.9%
WTI	$103/barrel	▲ +0.7%
EUA Carbon (Dec-26)	€75/tonne	–
JKM LNG (front-month)	$18.20/MMBtu	▲ +2.7%
TTF Gas (front-month)	€47.50/MWh	▲ +1.7%

Brent crude is holding around $108/barrel as the Hormuz risk premium remains embedded in oil pricing. Asian LNG (JKM) has moved higher, reflecting the same global tightness that is pressuring European contracts, and underscoring that this is not a UK-specific issue but a global supply shock. TTF, the European gas benchmark, has also firmed, confirming the cross-market pressure is broad-based.

Storage, Supply and the Week Ahead

UK gas storage remains at approximately 10% capacity, structurally the most exposed position in Europe. With the Australian strike starting tomorrow, no LNG arrivals scheduled into UK terminals, and injection season barely under way, the buffer the market would normally rely on simply is not there.

The week ahead carries two further catalysts. If Australian strike action proceeds on 20 May, markets will be watching closely for any indication of duration and volume impact.

And on 27 May, now just eight days away, Ofgem publishes its July price cap determination.

Forecasters expect a rise of around £217 per year for typical domestic consumers, reflecting the same wholesale dynamics that are driving commercial contract prices sharply higher.

While the cap is domestic, the announcement will reinforce the broader market narrative and may move sentiment.

What This Means for Your Business

UK gas is now up 50% year-on-year. If you are a business that last renewed your energy contract in spring 2025, the market you are renewing into looks radically different.

The combination of a prolonged geopolitical supply disruption, the lowest storage levels in Europe, and a strike that could further tighten global LNG supply means near-term contracts are likely to remain elevated for weeks, not days.

If your contract expires soon, the key question is whether you fix now at current elevated rates or hold out for conditions to improve. Given the number of unresolved drivers, the risk of waiting is substantial.

Locking in a medium-term fixed contract at today’s rates, while painful compared to last year, provides certainty against the risk of further escalation.

If your contract runs into 2027 or beyond, the forward curve still offers a meaningful discount to current spot. Cal-28 contracts at around 72 represent roughly 40% below the current day-ahead price, a gap that reflects market expectation of eventual normalisation, but one that is gradually narrowing.

The most important step is to know your numbers. What are you currently paying, what does today’s market offer, and how does that compare to your risk appetite? Speak to one of our consultants today – no obligation, just independent advice that puts your interests first.