UK Energy Market Report - 2 October 2026

Day-ahead gas and power fall while every forward contract rises, Jan-27 power jumps £7.01, and Britain is again the cheapest of seven European gas hubs

The 1 October session, the first of the new gas year, split the curve in two. Day-ahead gas fell 1.50p to 176.50 p/therm as mild weather held heating demand down, while every forward contract rose. Nov-26, the front month, gained 3.45p to 186.53p, its highest close since the 190.71p of 24 September, and Q1-27 rose 3.61p to 184.83p.

Power did the same. Day-ahead baseload settled at £154.40/MWh, down £5.71 or 3.57%, and day-ahead peak fell £10.97 to £155.03. Every baseload forward rose, led by Jan-27, up £7.01 to £160.47.

Because Britain’s day-ahead fell while most continental hubs rose, NBP is again the cheapest of the seven European gas hubs tracked here. At 09:32 this morning the front of the gas curve is marked about 4p to 5p lower, more than undoing yesterday’s gain, while the power forwards are marked a little higher.

Gas Market

The day-ahead and the forwards moved in opposite directions. Day-ahead fell 1.50p, or 0.84%, to 176.50p, while Nov-26 gained 3.45p to 186.53p, Dec-26 3.67p to 188.40p, Jan-27 3.68p to 189.29p and Q1-27 3.61p to 184.83p.

Unlike the previous two sessions, the move did not fade along the curve. Q2-27 added 4.03p to 140.19p, Summer-27 4.00p to 134.51p and Winter-27 3.37p to 128.83p, so next summer and next winter gained as much as the front. The 2028 contracts rose a little over 2p each, Summer-28 to 84.45p and Winter-28 to 91.70p, and Summer-29 added 1.60p to 71.22p.

The split opened a wide gap at the front. Nov-26 now stands 10.03p above day-ahead, against 5.08p a session earlier. The gap between this winter and next barely moved: Q1-27 is 56.00p above Winter-27, against 55.77p.

Nov-26 has settled at 182.66p, 190.71p, 183.04p, 185.63p, 176.53p, 183.08p and 186.53p over the last seven sessions. It is 3.87p above its 23 September close and 4.18p below the 24 September high.

Commentary this morning describes the curve as held up by worries over winter supply and below-average storage, while the prompt eased on temperatures forecast 1 to 2°C above normal across northwest Europe. It also cites uncertainty over Middle East shipping routes and the EU ban on Russian LNG due from January 2027 as support for the forward curve.

Most continental hubs were firmer. Spain’s PVB rose 7.75p to 185.46p and Italy’s PSV 5.56p to 190.15p. Austria’s VTP added 1.11p to 188.70p, Germany’s THE 0.70p to 185.37p and the Dutch TTF 0.07p to 184.87p. Only France’s PEG fell alongside Britain, by 0.98p to 181.03p.

NBP fell further than any of them, so Britain got cheaper against all six. It is now the cheapest of the seven hubs, 4.53p below PEG, and its discount to TTF widened to 8.37p from 6.80p. Commentary links continued exports to Belgium through IUK to that widening discount.

The marks published here on 1 October got the day-ahead wrong. It was indicated at 182.95p, up 4.95p, and settled 1.50p lower at 176.50p, 6.45p below the mark. The forwards were close: Nov-26 settled 0.31p under its 186.84p mark, Q1-27 0.57p under 185.40p, Summer-27 0.13p under and Winter-27 0.97p under.

At 09:32 today the front of the curve is marked lower. Nov-26 is indicated at 181.71p, down 4.82p, Dec-26 at 183.85p, Jan-27 at 184.89p and Q1-27 at 180.80p, down 4.03p. Day-ahead is marked 0.48p higher at 176.98p. Q2-27 carries no fresh mark, and the indications shown for Summer-27 onwards sit 42p to 61p above their settlements, which cannot be right, so they are not quoted.

Norwegian supply keeps recovering. Commentary puts exit nominations at 321.5 mcm/day on 1 October, up 4.7% on the day, and 330.4 mcm/day this morning, the sixth daily increase in a row, with more outages expected to clear over the weekend. Against that, outages at Heidrun, Kristin and Dvalin were extended overnight and Åsgard maintenance now runs to 11 October.

On the 07:00 read Langeled is delivering 66.00 mcm/day, the same as at 07:00 on 1 October, while Vesterled has eased to 4.00 from 8.00. Exports to Belgium through IUK are 14.70 mcm/day, against 13.60 a day earlier, and BBL is at zero. UKCS production is 88.70 mcm/day, down from 90.40, and LNG send-out is unchanged at 3.20 at Isle of Grain and 5.20 at South Hook. System demand and linepack are not reported on this morning’s read.

Electricity Market

Day-ahead baseload settled at £154.40/MWh, down £5.71 or 3.57%. Day-ahead peak fell harder, by £10.97 or 6.61% to £155.03, leaving it only 63p above baseload against £5.89 a session earlier.

The last seven sessions of day-ahead baseload read £152.55, £161.23, £130.14, £137.00, £117.67, £160.11 and £154.40. The range across them is £43.56, little changed from £44.08.

The forward curve rose with gas, and January stood out. Jan-27 baseload jumped £7.01 to £160.47, while Nov-26 gained £1.70 to £152.20 and Dec-26 £2.15 to £150.40. That leaves Jan-27 £8.27 above Nov-26 and £10.07 above Dec-26, against £2.96 and £5.21 a session earlier. Q1-27 rose £2.52 to £152.71.

Further out, Q2-27 added £3.99 to £111.45, Summer-27 £2.62 to £107.07 and Winter-27 £2.29 to £108.01. Summer-28 rose £1.54 to £72.82, Winter-28 £1.17 to £81.21 and Summer-29 £1.00 to £68.45, so this time every baseload forward rose.

Peak followed the same pattern. Jan-27 peak gained £11.44 to £187.25, Dec-26 £2.66 to £175.40, Nov-26 £2.10 to £179.10 and Q1-27 £2.75 to £175.10, with Winter-27 peak up £3.05 to £126.74. Nov-26 peak sits 17.7% above Nov-26 baseload.

The day-ahead power mark was close again. On 1 October day-ahead baseload was offered at £156.00 and settled at £154.40, £1.60 lower, the third session running within £2 of its settlement. The forwards were marked too high this time: Nov-26 was shown at £155.02 and settled £2.82 lower, Q1-27 at £154.71 against £152.71, Summer-27 at £109.00 against £107.07 and Winter-27 at £108.75 against £108.01.

At 09:32 today day-ahead baseload is offered at £152.00, £2.40 below its settlement. Most forwards are marked higher again: Nov-26 at £153.72, Jan-27 at £162.07, Q1-27 at £154.24 and Summer-27 at £107.50, while Winter-27, also at £107.50, is £0.51 below its close. Commentary describes power as flat this morning on thin trading; the marks show moves of up to £2.40 either way.

The imbalance market settled 1 October with a maximum System Buy Price of £225.89 at 19:18 and a minimum System Sell Price of £63.50 at 02:16. The minimum held exactly at the part-day figure published here yesterday, with its time revised from 02:19 to 02:16. The maximum did not: the part-day row read £209.33 at 07:19, and the evening peak came in £16.56 higher.

The 30 September minimum of £3.37 is now stamped 09:44 rather than 09:48, with the price unchanged. Today’s part-day row reads £221.59 at 07:18 and £123.28 at 03:48, with most of the day still to come.

The wind dip forecast for 3 October has become shallower. Combined wind and solar is now forecast at about 7,900 MWh on 3 October, against roughly 6,300 in yesterday’s forecast and a seasonal norm near 10,600. Output then recovers to about 11,200 on 5 October, drops to about 7,700 on 6 October, and climbs above the norm from around 7 October to about 12,800 by 9 October.

Temperatures are forecast above the seasonal mean to 7 October, about 15°C today against a mean near 12.7°C and peaking near 16°C on 5 October. The chart now shows the cooler spell the commentary has been pointing to: 8 October is forecast at about 11.2°C, roughly a degree below the mean and the first below-normal day on the forecast, before 9 October edges back above it.

The nuclear outage table is unchanged at 2,255 MW. Heysham 1 reactor 1 (610 MW) is still listed on the outage that was due to end on 29 September, and Hartlepool 2 (620 MW) is due back on 3 October, the day a separate 112 MW reduction on Heysham 1 reactor 1 is planned to start for 96 days. Commentary also points to low French nuclear output, about 36 GW on average in September, as support for European power prices.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent settled at $102.31/barrel on 1 October, up $4.28 or 4.37%, back above $100 a session after its lowest close since 8 September and just short of the $102.59 of 29 September. Sterling weakened against the dollar to 1.3199 from 1.3265, so in sterling terms the barrel rose a little more, 4.89%, to about £77.51.

Oil and carbon rose while gas priced in dollars eased. Brent, coal and both carbon allowances settled higher; JKM, Henry Hub and spot gas at NBP and TTF slipped.

EUA Dec-26 rose €0.55 to €85.64 and UK ETS Dec-26 £0.78 to £62.19. At 1.1713 the UK allowance is worth about €72.84, so its discount to the European price narrowed for a third session, to €12.80 from €13.23. This morning the UK allowance is marked at £62.09, slightly below its close.

Asia’s LNG premium over Britain narrowed again. JKM settled at $25.24/MMBtu and NBP spot at $23.30, a gap of $1.94 against $2.13 a session earlier. TTF spot held up better at $24.47, so Britain’s spot discount to the Dutch hub widened to $1.17 from $0.94. Coal API2 Cal-27 rose $0.90 to $137.01/tonne.

Commentary this morning is focused on the Middle East, citing reports of a growing US military presence in the region as a risk to energy supply security.

Storage and Supply Outlook

British storage turned higher, to 43% on the country map from 41%, after a run of falls, though it is still the emptiest of the seven readings. The continent again held still: France 81%, Italy 86%, Spain 73%, Germany 57% and the two overlapping Benelux labels at 57% and 61%. Commentary puts EU storage at about 71.5% at the end of September, well below a year earlier.

Injection has resumed at two sites. Stublach rose three points to 54% and Aldbrough one point to 33%, while South Hook slipped a point to 75%. Dragon is at 33%, Hill Top 3%, Holehouse Farm 70%, HolFord 75%, Hornsea 71% and Isle of Grain 41%, all unchanged, with Rough empty and Humbly Grove at 1%.

The cargo schedule again has no British delivery. Ten cargoes carrying about 966 mcm are due at northwest European terminals between today and 6 October: three at Eemshaven, three at Fos, two at Gate, one at Wilhelmshaven and one at Montoir. Three come from the United States, one each from Senegal, Algeria and Russia, one is listed from the Netherlands and three have no origin listed. The Russian cargo, due at Montoir on 6 October, is the kind of supply the EU ban from January 2027 will remove.

Britain therefore goes into October with storage only just turning up, Norwegian flows recovering but still exposed to field outages, and LNG send-out subdued at about 8.4 mcm/day across Isle of Grain and South Hook. Mild weather is doing much of the work, and the first below-normal day on the temperature forecast is 8 October.

What This Means for Your Business

The reference points for this winter are Nov-26 at 186.53 p/therm and £152.20/MWh, and Q1-27 at 184.83 p/therm and £152.71/MWh. At wholesale that is about 6.3 to 6.4 p/kWh for gas and 15.2 to 15.3 p/kWh for power, before network costs, levies and supplier margin.

Yesterday’s session shows why the headline price can mislead. Day-ahead gas and power both fell, which is the number a business on a day-ahead-linked tariff would notice, while every contract that a fixed-price renewal is priced from rose. Anyone timing a renewal on the strength of a softer day-ahead would have been watching the wrong number.

The power curve now prices January heavily. Jan-27 baseload at £160.47 is £10.07 above Dec-26, so January volumes are the dearest of the winter. That is a reason to look at the shape of your consumption, not just the annual average, when spreading a winter purchase across several dates.

The year beyond this winter remains far cheaper, though it moved more than usual in this session. Summer-27 gas rose 4.00p and Winter-27 3.37p, and Summer-27 and Winter-27 baseload both rose more than £2. For a contract that runs into 2027 and 2028, current business electricity rates still reflect a curve well below this winter, but not one that is standing still.

From here the risks run both ways. Norwegian output is rising for a sixth day, British storage has started to refill and the weather is mild, all of which weigh on prompt prices. Against that, British storage is still the lowest of the seven readings, no LNG cargo on the schedule is bound for Britain, Middle East tension is back in the commentary and the first cooler day appears on the forecast for 8 October.

If you want to know what these movements mean for your own contract dates and consumption profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report, 1 October 2026