UK Energy Market Report: 20 July 2026

UK wholesale gas and electricity market update for 20 July 2026, with NBP prices, day-ahead power, Brent crude and procurement guidance.

UK wholesale gas broke higher on Friday and has not looked back. The NBP day-ahead settled at 139.50 p/therm on 17 July, up 7.70 p/therm or close to 6% on the session, and the gain ran the full length of the curve rather than stopping at the prompt. Winter-26 settled at 139.26 p/therm and Q1-27 at 136.74 p/therm. This morning the market has added to it again, with the day-ahead indicated at 140.00 p/therm and Winter-26 at 141.15 p/therm.

Two things drove Friday. A Russian drone strike on Ukrainian gas infrastructure put a fresh risk premium into the curve, and the Middle East situation deteriorated further over the weekend, with a ninth consecutive day of exchanges between the United States and Iran and reports of two oil tankers struck in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent has responded accordingly. The UK physical position remains comfortable. It is not what is setting the price.

Gas Market

The 17 July settlement was a clean, uniform move higher. The NBP day-ahead closed at 139.50 p/therm, up 7.70 on the session, with Aug-26 at 138.75 p/therm and Sep-26 at 139.58 p/therm, both up close to 7 p/therm. The winter contracts followed: Q4-26 settled at 141.71 p/therm, Winter-26 at 139.26 p/therm and Q1-27 at 136.74 p/therm. Even the back of the curve moved, with Summer-27 at 94.59 p/therm and Winter-27 at 92.43 p/therm. Early trade on 20 July has firmed again by roughly 2 p/therm across the forwards.

Continental hubs remain at a premium to the UK. TTF was assessed at 143.92 p/therm against the NBP at 139.50 p/therm, with the Italian PSV up at 154.38 p/therm and the German THE at 144.22 p/therm. That spread continues to pull gas out of Britain: IUK is exporting 34.7 mcm/day to Belgium and BBL 16.4 mcm/day to the Netherlands, both unchanged this morning as flows stay directed at the continent.

Supply into the UK is genuinely strong today. The system opened around 16 mcm/day long. UKCS production is up 6.5 mcm/day to 98.9 mcm/day, Langeled is nominated at 60.4 mcm/day and Vesterled and Flags add a further 12.0 mcm/day, putting Norwegian deliveries to Britain above 72 mcm/day. LNG sendout has improved to roughly 9.7 mcm/day across Isle of Grain, Dragon and South Hook, and linepack has built 8.4 mcm to 346.8 mcm. System demand has eased 2.1 mcm/day to 148.1 mcm/day.

Norwegian exports to Europe held at 329.4 mcm/day on 17 July despite unplanned maintenance at Asgard trimming 5.3 mcm/day, with total curtailments of 39.1 mcm/day expected to ease. The demand-side risk sits with wind, which is forecast to run below seasonal norms for the next seven days and will lean on gas for power, though solar output is running above normal and temperatures across Northwest Europe turn cooler from today.

Electricity Market

The power headline needs reading carefully. The baseload day-ahead settled at £99.03/MWh on 17 July, apparently down £25.64 on the session, but that contract delivers over the weekend, when demand is at its lowest. It is a calendar effect, not a change of direction. The proof is in this morning’s prompt, which is offered at £128/MWh, close to £29 above the Friday settlement. The peak day-ahead tells the same story, settling at £76.22/MWh for weekend delivery.

Away from the prompt, the curve moved with gas and moved consistently. Aug-26 baseload settled at £114.72/MWh, Q4-26 at £120.38/MWh and Winter-26 at £118.61/MWh, each up between 2% and 3%. Winter-26 peak settled at £134.54/MWh. Summer-27 baseload edged up to £83.35/MWh. This morning the forwards have added another 3% or so, with Winter-26 offered around £122.17/MWh.

Nuclear availability worsens today. Heysham 2 unit 7 goes to a full 660 MW unplanned outage from 20 July for 33 days, having run derated through last week. It joins both Sizewell B units and Hartlepool 1, all fully offline, with part of Heysham 1 derated and Heysham 1 unit 2 out entirely. Torness 2 then comes off for a planned 18-day outage from 31 July. In France, restrictions at Golfech-2 and Chooz-2 have been extended by several days, which limits the scope for cheap imports across the interconnectors just as our own fleet thins out. Balancing has stayed orderly, with the maximum system buy price on 20 July at £164.00/MWh.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent crude settled at $88.10 a barrel on 17 July, up $3.87 or 4.6% on the session, and has pushed higher again this morning to its strongest level since mid-June as the Hormuz tanker reports landed. Oil is the cleanest read available on how the market is pricing Middle East risk, and it has been pointing one way for a fortnight. Coal API2 for Cal-27 followed it up 2.5% to $121.53 a tonne, and Asian JKM gained 5.3% to $20.98/MMBtu, which keeps Asia competing hard for flexible cargoes and limits how much LNG relief Europe can count on.

Carbon was the one market that did not join in, and there is a policy reason for it. The European Commission has proposed an overhaul of the EU Emissions Trading System that would relax the rules and give businesses longer to cut their carbon output than previously planned. EUA allowances slipped fractionally to €79.11 a tonne against that backdrop, while the UK ETS firmed 1.0% to £58.70. Sterling weakened on both crosses, at 1.1751 against the euro and 1.3453 against the dollar, which quietly adds to the cost of the dollar-denominated commodities above.

Storage and Supply Outlook

Storage remains the structural problem underneath all of this. EU inventories stood at roughly 53.0% full on 16 July, around 10.8 percentage points below the same point last year, and injection rates continue to lag seasonal norms. The gap is not closing. Each week that Europe refills more slowly than it needs to, the arithmetic for reaching a workable position by 1 November gets harder, and that pressure lands squarely on the winter contracts, which is exactly where Friday’s buying went.

UK site storage offers no meaningful cushion. Rough and Humbly Grove are both empty, Aldbrough sits at 21%, Hornsea at 23%, Hill Top at 28%, Holehouse Farm at 35%, Stublach at 36% and Holford at 43%. The stronger readings are the LNG terminals, with South Hook at 79% and Isle of Grain at 62%, and those are working stock awaiting regasification rather than seasonal reserve. The arrivals schedule into Northwest Europe is reasonable, with a 101 mcm cargo at Zeebrugge today and US cargoes due at Gate, Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbuttel between 21 and 23 July, though the next South Hook delivery is not until 4 August.

The swing factors from here are unchanged and all of them are currently pointing the same way: shipping security through the Strait of Hormuz, the integrity of Ukrainian and Russian gas infrastructure, LNG availability into Northwest Europe, the pace of European injections through what remains of the summer window, and the UK nuclear return schedule. Day-to-day supply is comfortable. The margin for error is not.

What This Means for Your Business

Last week we noted that Winter-26 gas was holding near 134 p/therm while the prompt swung around it. That floor has now given way. Winter-26 settled at 139.26 p/therm on Friday and is indicated at 141.15 p/therm this morning, roughly 5% higher than a week ago, and Winter-26 baseload has moved from about £115/MWh to £122/MWh over the same period. This is no longer a prompt story that leaves the curve alone. The market is repricing the coming winter.

If you have a contract starting on 1 October or 1 January and you are still fully open, that is now the exposure worth addressing first. It has cost roughly 5% to wait a week. That does not mean fixing everything at today’s screen, because a geopolitical premium can unwind as quickly as it built, but it does mean having a plan with defined trigger levels rather than watching and hoping. A staged approach, placing tranches of volume as the market moves rather than betting the whole position on one date, is designed precisely for a market behaving like this one.

For anyone able to look beyond Winter-26, the shape of the curve is still the more useful number. Summer-27 gas at 94.59 p/therm sits well below a front trading at 140, Summer-28 is lower again at 65.36 p/therm, and Summer-27 baseload at £83.35/MWh compares with Winter-26 at £118.61/MWh. The back of the curve continues to offer a discount the front does not, and the gap has widened this week rather than narrowed. To review your renewal dates against this curve and agree a staged approach that fits your risk profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report: 17 July 2026