UK Energy Market Report - 21 August 2026

Every NBP contract and every UK baseload contract settled higher on Thursday, with gas up 4p to 5p a therm across the board, as Britain went into the move holding the emptiest storage in Europe and exporting 46.54 mcm/day to the continent.

Gas Market

NBP Day-Ahead settled at 161.25p on 20 August, up 4.25p or 2.7%, the highest close of this run.

Every contract on the board rose with it. Sep-26 gained 4.84p to 161.23p, Oct-26 4.52p to 161.90p, Nov-26 4.55p to 164.92p and Q4-26 4.57p to 164.58p.

Q1-27 was the biggest riser in pence, up 4.97p to 160.58p, with Winter-26 adding 4.77p to 162.60p.

The far end came too, Winter-27 up 3.22p to 102.98p, Summer-28 1.25p to 72.74p and Winter-28 0.81p to 79.28p. Summer-27 led the board in percentage terms at 4.5%, closing 105.19p against 91.25p on 11 August, which is 13.94p in seven sessions.

Because everything moved together the shape barely changed. Winter-26 now sits 57.41p a therm above Summer-27, against 57.21p on Wednesday, which makes this a parallel shift rather than a repricing.

Britain lost the cheapest hub position it recovered on Wednesday. NBP settled 161.25p against PVB 160.29p, turning a 2.27p British discount to Spain into a 0.96p premium inside one session.

Against the rest Britain is still cheap, and it rose less than they did. TTF settled 164.46p, PEG 164.48p, THE 165.57p, Austrian VTP 167.25p and PSV 168.33p, with the NBP discount to TTF widening back to 3.21p from 2.05p. THE added 5.54p and TTF 5.41p against the NBP’s 4.25p, while Spain moved just 1.02p, which is the whole reason the cheapest hub slot changed hands.

Supply is the reason for all of it. Gassco reported an unplanned outage at Karsto on Wednesday lifting capacity restrictions to 30 mcm/day and cutting available capacity to 65 mcm/day, with Norwegian Continental Shelf nominations recovering to 308.8 mcm/day.

This morning it has eased but not cleared. At the 07:00 stamp Langeled is 57.50 mcm/day, down 10.40, with Vesterled and Flags unchanged at 11.00, so Norwegian gas into Britain is 68.50 mcm/day against 78.90. TotalEnergies puts the reduction at 12 mcm/day on its own later read, with Gassco exit nominations at 320 mcm/day and the Karsto curtailment down to 5 mcm/day.

The system is comfortable despite that. Demand fell 13.94 to 142.34 mcm/day, linepack built 7.11 to 338.14 mcm, and TotalEnergies reports the system opening 6 mcm/day long.

LNG remains the leg that will not move. Sendout is 8.10 mcm/day, Isle of Grain 3.20 and South Hook 4.90, unchanged for a sixth session, while 46.54 mcm/day leaves the country through IUK and BBL.

At the 09:32 stamp the curve is bid again, Day-Ahead indicated 164.48p and Q4-26 167.79p, both around 3.2p above Thursday’s close. Read the far end with care: the same index prints Winter-27 24.23p below settlement and Winter-28 14.29p below while marking Summer-28 9.01p higher, which are not dealable prices on contracts that barely trade.

The card below summarises where NBP contracts settled on Thursday against the previous session.

Electricity Market

UK day-ahead baseload settled at 141.97 £/MWh on 20 August, up 1.31 or 0.9%. Day-ahead peak rose further, up 3.51 or 2.7% to 135.43 £/MWh.

So the summer inversion narrowed for the first time this week, baseload now 6.54 £/MWh above the peak block against 8.74 on Wednesday.

The forwards did what gas did, which is rise everywhere. Sep-26 added 1.13 to 127.23 £/MWh, Oct-26 3.04 to 127.66 and Nov-26 2.88 to 138.05.

Then three contracts moved by exactly the same amount. Q4-26, Q1-27 and Winter-26 each added 2.91, to 134.26, 132.49 and 133.38. TotalEnergies reports Q4-26 at its highest level since October 2023.

An identical move on three contracts is a curve being shifted, not three views being formed. Further out, Summer-27 gained 2.49 to 88.84, Winter-27 1.75 to 89.88, Summer-28 0.64 to 66.64 and Winter-28 0.65 to 73.92.

Winter-26 baseload has now risen on each of the last five sessions, from 124.77 on 13 August to 133.38, a gain of 8.61. Over that same stretch the day-ahead has printed 145.50, 124.30, 138.94, 143.00, 140.66 and 141.97, going nowhere inside a 21 £/MWh band while the forward added its 8.61.

The balancing floor broke its run. The daily minimum System Sell Price settled at 103.00 £/MWh on 20 August at 17:18, down 9.00 from 112.00 and the first fall after seven consecutive rises, with the maximum System Buy Price at 192.59 at 20:48.

Thursday’s report published 112.71 to 171.42 as that day’s range and flagged it as a part day. It resolved 103.00 to 192.59, out 9.71 on the floor and 21.17 on the ceiling, and the floor moved in the opposite direction to the part-day read. Today so far reads 113.10 to 180.62, stamped before 09:32, and carries exactly the same warning.

The morning price index was also light on gas. Day-Ahead was indicated 157.50p and settled 161.25p, out 3.75, with Q4-26 indicated 160.91p and settled 164.58p, out 3.67. Both under, on a day the market rose hard, and this is the same index that landed inside 0.37 on gas the session before. UK ETS was the one it called, indicated £58.91 and settled £58.97.

The nuclear stack thinned today. Torness 1 came off on 21 August for 17 days and 640 MW, joining Heysham 1 reactor 1, off since 17 August, and Hartlepool 2, off since 7 August and due back around 23 August. That is 1,870 MW out at once.

Wind is timed against it. Forecast wind and solar output runs near 10,100 MWh today, falls to a trough around 6,100 MWh on 23 August, roughly 3,500 MWh under the seasonal norm of about 9,600, then recovers above 11,500 MWh into 25 August.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent M+1 settled at 93.78 $/barrel on 20 August, up 2.16 or 2.4%, a fourth consecutive rise and the highest close of this run.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States will impose the toughest sanctions in history on Iran. TotalEnergies reports oil easing this morning on growing confidence those sanctions can be achieved without the region escalating.

Behind it, the Panama Canal Authority is set to limit daily vessel transits on reduced rainfall tied to an intensifying El Nino.

Coal API2 for Cal-27 added 1.21 to $128.27/tonne, a rise of 1.0%.

Carbon was the only place anything fell. EUA Dec-26 gained 0.74 to €82.45 while UK ETS Dec-26 lost 0.07 to £58.97, offered at £59.10 at 09:17 this morning.

At Thursday’s 1.1665 sterling rate the European allowance is worth about £70.68, putting the UK scheme £11.71 a tonne below its European equivalent against £10.91 on Wednesday. Businesses carrying a UK ETS obligation are buying into the cheaper scheme, and that advantage widened.

In LNG, JKM front month rose 0.52 to $22.61/MMBtu, TTF spot 0.85 to $22.41 and NBP spot 0.62 to $21.98, while Henry Hub fell 0.11 to $2.83. That narrowed the JKM premium over TTF to 0.20 $/MMBtu from 0.53, reversing Wednesday’s widening.

Europe outbidding Asia is what loosens cargoes, and it still has not shifted a single British terminal off 8 mcm/day.

Sterling was weaker against the euro at 1.1665 and firmer against the dollar at 1.3629.

Commodity	Price	Change (day)
Brent Crude (M+1)	$93.78/barrel	+2.4%
Coal API2 (Cal-27)	$128.27/tonne	+1.0%
EUA Carbon (Dec-26)	€82.45/tonne	+0.9%
UK ETS (Dec-26)	£58.97/tonne	-0.1%
JKM LNG (front-month)	$22.61/MMBtu	+2.4%
TTF Gas (spot)	$22.41/MMBtu	+3.9%

Storage and Supply Outlook

EU gas storage stood at 61.61% full on 19 August, TotalEnergies reports, well below year ago levels.

At country level only one number moved, and it was ours. Italy sits at 78% full and Spain at 73%, with France at 62%, Germany 49%, Belgium 43%, the Netherlands 41% and Britain 39%, another point lower and six points below the next system up.

Site level says the same thing more bluntly. Five sites fell and one rose. Hornsea gained a point to 48%, while Aldbrough lost two to 31%, Hill Top two to 25%, Stublach two to 62%, Isle of Grain one to 34% and South Hook one to 65%.

Holehouse Farm held at 70%, Holford at 64% and Dragon at 33%, with Rough and Humbly Grove still at zero.

That is net withdrawal with roughly six weeks of injection season left, and the reason has not changed: summer gas costs more than the winter it would be stored for.

The arithmetic underneath is uncomfortable. Britain is exporting 46.54 mcm/day to the continent through IUK and BBL while holding the emptiest storage in Europe and taking no LNG at all.

The arrivals schedule into North West Europe carries ten cargoes and 946 mcm out to 24 August. Five are American, one Algerian into Fos, one from Trinidad and Tobago into Gate, one from the Bahamas into Wilhelmshaven, one unspecified, and one from the Russian Federation into Dunkirk on 21 August, the second Russian cargo to appear in as many schedules.

None of the ten is British. That is a sixth consecutive schedule with no UK arrival.

Beyond supply, Romania reported the destruction of a naval drone near the Neptun Deep gas development in the Black Sea, and UK temperatures are forecast to climb from tomorrow, from about 15C today towards 19C by 26 August against an eight day mean near 16C.

What This Means for Your Business

Q4-26 gas closed on 7 August at 139.23p and settled Thursday at 164.58p. That is 25.35p a therm in nine trading sessions, worth roughly £8,650 a year on a 1 GWh gas load.

Winter-26 power has added 8.61 £/MWh since 13 August, worth about £8,610 a year on a 1 GWh electricity load. Both fuels are now moving the same way at the same speed.

Wednesday’s report flagged the far curve rising as the exception worth watching. Thursday did not settle that question, it removed it, because everything rose at once.

What survived is the size of the gap. Summer-28 gas at 72.74p and Winter-28 at 79.28p are still less than half Winter-26 at 162.60p, so a buyer covering 2028 faces a different market from a buyer covering this winter.

The winter premium is the thing to price, not the headline. At 57.41p a therm it is within 0.20p of its high for this run, which is why businesses able to separate their winter cover from the rest of the term still hold the better hand.

On the supply side the case for acting sooner has firmed. Anyone watching where wholesale gas is heading before a renewal should weigh three facts together: storage at 39%, exports at 46.54 mcm/day and LNG sendout that has not moved in six sessions.

The near term watch list is short. Karsto is still curtailed by 5 mcm/day, Torness 1 is off for 17 days, wind troughs on 23 August and Britain enters that window as the emptiest storage system in Europe.

For a view tailored to your consumption profile and renewal window, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 20 August 2026