UK Energy Market Report: 21 July 2026

UK wholesale gas and electricity market update for 21 July 2026, with NBP prices, day-ahead power, Brent crude and procurement guidance.

The rally carried into Monday, but it did not carry evenly. NBP settled higher again on 20 July across everything out to Winter-27, with the day-ahead at 141.00 p/therm and Winter-26 at 141.86 p/therm, while Summer-27, Winter-27 and both 2028 contracts all closed lower on the session.

That split matters more than the headline. The market is buying the next twelve months and selling the ones after that. This morning the near curve has added roughly another 2 p/therm, with the day-ahead indicated at 142.45 p/therm.

The one genuinely new element is on the downside. Reports of possible ceasefire discussions in the Middle East are circulating for the first time in a fortnight, which is the first credible route to unwinding some of the premium built into the front.

Gas Market

Monday’s settlement was a smaller move than Friday’s but a cleaner one to read. The day-ahead closed at 141.00 p/therm, up 1.50 on the session. Aug-26 settled at 141.46 p/therm and Sep-26 at 142.28 p/therm, both up around 2.7 p/therm, with Q4-26 at 144.74 p/therm and Winter-26 at 141.86 p/therm.

Then the curve turns. Summer-27 settled at 94.40 p/therm, down 0.19, Winter-27 at 91.97 p/therm, down 0.46, and Summer-28 at 64.92 p/therm, down 0.45. Every contract from Summer-27 outwards fell on a day when the front rose 2%.

Early trade on 21 July has extended the same pattern. The day-ahead is indicated at 142.45 p/therm, Q4-26 at 146.67 p/therm and Winter-26 at 143.27 p/therm, while Summer-27 has slipped to 94.00 p/therm.

Continental hubs still sit above the UK. TTF is assessed at 146.17 p/therm against the NBP at 141.00 p/therm, with the Italian PSV at 154.27 p/therm and the German THE at 146.72 p/therm. IUK continues to export 34.7 mcm/day to Belgium and BBL 16.4 mcm/day to the Netherlands, both unchanged this morning.

The domestic balance is comfortable and boring, which is the point. System demand has eased 5.6 mcm/day to 148.9 mcm/day, UKCS production is running at 94.5 mcm/day, and Langeled plus Vesterled and Flags deliver 68.7 mcm/day from Norway. Norwegian exit nominations are steady at 329.6 mcm/day according to Gassco. LNG sendout is subdued at 11.4 mcm/day across Isle of Grain, Dragon and South Hook, and linepack has built 5.2 mcm to 343.6 mcm.

Electricity Market

Baseload day-ahead settled at £127.40/MWh for 20 July, up £28.37 on the Friday figure. That is not a 29% rally, it is the market coming back off a weekend delivery contract, and last week’s report flagged the same distortion in reverse. Peak day-ahead settled at £119.14/MWh. This morning the prompt is offered at £126.75/MWh, essentially flat.

The forwards did move properly. Aug-26 baseload settled at £118.70/MWh, Sep-26 at £120.98/MWh, up 4.7% and the largest gain on the curve, Q4-26 at £123.47/MWh and Winter-26 at £121.63/MWh. Winter-26 peak settled at £137.50/MWh. Early trade on 21 July has added another 2% to 3%, with Winter-26 offered around £124.00/MWh.

As with gas, the back end refused to follow. Summer-27 baseload settled at £83.43/MWh, up eight pence, and Summer-28 at £63.35/MWh, actually down on the day.

The generation backdrop explains why the front keeps finding buyers. UK nuclear is missing roughly 3.1 GW of fully offline capacity: both Sizewell B units, Hartlepool 1, Heysham 1 unit 2 and Heysham 2 unit 7, the last of which went to a full 660 MW unplanned outage yesterday for 33 days. Torness 2 comes off for 18 days from 31 July. Wind is forecast at 4.1 GW today, about 10% up on yesterday but still under seasonal norms, and German wind is expected to fall 45% to 10.1 GW, which tightens the whole northwest European picture. Balancing reflected it, with the maximum system buy price on 20 July reaching £189.99/MWh.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent settled at $89.22 a barrel on 20 July, up $1.12 or 1.3%, its firmest level since mid-June. The move is smaller than Friday’s but the direction has not changed, and oil remains the most honest read on how the market is pricing Strait of Hormuz risk. Coal API2 for Cal-27 added 1.4% to $123.24 a tonne. Asian JKM was almost unchanged at $21.02/MMBtu, which still leaves Asia paying enough to keep flexible cargoes away from Europe.

Carbon was the surprise. EUA allowances jumped 5.3% to €83.27 a tonne and the UK ETS gained 5.1% to £61.70, a sharp reversal after Friday, when the European Commission’s proposal to relax the EU Emissions Trading System had knocked prices back. Traders appear to have concluded that a longer compliance timetable does not change the underlying tightening path, and the buying returned quickly. For any business holding a carbon exposure alongside its energy contracts, that is a 5% move in a single session on a policy headline that was read one way on Friday and the opposite way on Monday.

Sterling firmed slightly against the euro at 1.1780 and eased against the dollar at 1.3428, so the dollar-denominated commodities above cost marginally more in sterling terms than the screen suggests.

Storage and Supply Outlook

European storage remains the reason the winter contracts keep bid. EU inventories stood at roughly 53.7% full on 18 July, more than 10 percentage points below the same point last year, and injection rates are still running behind seasonal norms. The refill window between now and 1 November is not getting any longer.

UK site storage is thinner still. Rough and Humbly Grove are both empty. Aldbrough is at 22%, Hornsea at 24%, Holehouse Farm at 35%, Stublach at 42%, and Holford and Hill Top at 43%. South Hook at 78% and Isle of Grain at 61% look healthier, but those are LNG working stock awaiting regasification, not seasonal reserve.

The cargo schedule into northwest Europe is steady rather than generous. Gate takes 88 mcm today, Wilhelmshaven 88 mcm tomorrow and Brunsbuttel 82 mcm on 23 July, all from the United States, with Fos and Zeebrugge due on 27 July. The next South Hook delivery is not until 4 August, which is why UK sendout stays around 10 to 11 mcm/day for now.

The swing factors are unchanged, but for the first time in two weeks one of them points down. Ceasefire discussions between the United States and Iran, if they progress, would take a meaningful premium out of the front of the curve. Against that, military activity in the region continues and shipping through Hormuz is still running well below normal volumes. The rest of the list is as it was: Ukrainian and Russian infrastructure integrity, LNG availability, the pace of European injections, and the UK nuclear return schedule.

What This Means for Your Business

Monday gave buyers the clearest signal of the month. When the front of the curve rises 2% and everything from Summer-27 outwards falls on the same day, the market is telling you exactly what it thinks the premium is: a near-term risk story, not a repricing of the decade.

If your renewal starts on 1 October or 1 January, you are buying into the expensive part of the curve. Winter-26 gas at 141.86 p/therm and Winter-26 baseload at £121.63/MWh are both roughly 2% higher than Friday and around 13% up on where they sat a fortnight ago. Waiting has cost money every week this month. That still does not argue for fixing the whole book at today’s screen, because a ceasefire headline could take several pence out of the front very quickly, but it does argue for having tranches and trigger levels agreed in advance rather than deciding in the moment.

If your renewal date gives you the option to look further out, the numbers are hard to ignore. Summer-27 gas at 94.40 p/therm sits 47 p/therm below the front. Summer-28 is at 64.92 p/therm. Summer-27 baseload at £83.43/MWh compares with Winter-26 at £121.63/MWh, and Summer-28 baseload is at £63.35/MWh. The discount widened again yesterday. A longer term that starts beyond next winter is currently priced at a level the front of the market has not seen since May.

To review your renewal dates against this curve and agree a staged approach with defined trigger levels, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report: 20 July 2026