UK Energy Market Report – 22 June 2026

Your Monday briefing on UK wholesale gas and electricity, oil, carbon and what it means for business energy procurement.

UK energy markets open the week on the back foot, with last week’s sharp sell-off still setting the tone.

Front-month gas settled Friday at 96.69 p/therm, down more than 19 percent over the week. Front-month power eased to £91.46/MWh. The story is a simple one. Warm weather across the UK and Europe has pulled demand below seasonal norms, and comfortable supply has done the rest.

Oil is the one market pulling the other way, firming on Friday after US-Iran peace talks were postponed and Middle East tensions flared again.

Gas Market

NBP day-ahead gas closed Friday at 99.60 p/therm. The near curve fell hard across the week, with the front month down 19.3 percent and Winter-26 off 17.0 percent at 103.11 p/therm.

The driver is weather. An unseasonably warm spell across north-west Europe has softened heating and gas-for-power demand, and milder conditions have also trimmed the call on French nuclear. With Norwegian flows steady and the LNG market well supplied, there has been little to stand in the way of the move lower.

European gas storage sits around 45.6 percent full. That is below the 54.4 percent seen this time last year and roughly 14 percent under the five-year average, but injection season is underway and the pace of refilling has been comfortable so far.

The long end tells the more interesting story. Cal-27 gas is down to 85.73 p/therm, a deep discount to the near-dated contracts. The curve is firmly backwardated, with the market pricing softer fundamentals further out.

Electricity Market

UK day-ahead baseload power settled Friday at £97.40/MWh. The forward curve followed gas lower, with Jul-26 down 11.6 percent on the week at £91.46/MWh and Winter-26 off 10.3 percent at £95.42/MWh.

Stronger wind output through last week lifted the renewables share of the mix and pushed gas plants further down the merit order, which helped cap day-ahead prices alongside the softer demand backdrop.

As with gas, the long-dated contracts sit well below near-dated. Cal-27 power is down at £81.03/MWh, reflecting the same expectation of easier forward fundamentals and a continuation of the backwardated shape.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Oil was the standout. Brent settled Friday at 80.59 USD/barrel, up 0.93 percent, while WTI firmed 1.23 percent to around 77.54 USD/barrel. The bid came from the postponement of US-Iran talks in Geneva and renewed Israel-Hezbollah exchanges, which put the Strait of Hormuz risk premium back in focus.

European carbon eased, with the EUA December contract slipping to around 79.78 EUR/tonne. TTF gas, the continental benchmark, bounced 3.9 percent on Friday to 42.10 EUR/MWh but remains down close to 15 percent over the month. Asian LNG, as measured by JKM, sat near 15.80 USD/MMBtu.

Storage and Supply Outlook

European storage is the swing factor to watch into the summer. At roughly 45.6 percent full, stocks are behind last year and the five-year norm, which would normally support prices. For now, mild weather and steady supply are winning the argument, and injections are proceeding without strain.

There were no fresh Ofgem announcements over the weekend. Norwegian maintenance and any change in LNG send-out remain the key supply variables, alongside the obvious geopolitical wildcard in the Middle East.

What This Means for Your Business

The near-term picture is the friendliest it has looked for buyers in some weeks. Both gas and power have fallen sharply, and the warm-weather demand backdrop could keep prompt prices soft in the days ahead.

The bigger opportunity sits further out. Cal-27 gas and power are trading at a clear discount to the near-dated contracts, so businesses with the appetite to fix multi-year volume have a genuine window to lock in lower rates.

The risks are well flagged. A flare-up around the Strait of Hormuz, a turn colder, or a stumble in storage injections could all reverse the mood quickly. A staged approach, taking some cover now and leaving room to add on dips, remains sensible.

To turn these moves into a procurement plan built around your contract dates and risk appetite, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 19 June 2026