UK Energy Market Report - 23 July 2026

Gas and power settle sharply higher on tighter Norwegian supply, weak wind forecasts and renewed Middle East risk, though the forward curve stays deeply backwardated.

Prompt-led strength dominated the UK energy complex on 22 July. Gas and power both settled sharply higher as tighter Norwegian supply, weaker wind forecasts and renewed Middle East risk drove a firmly backwardated curve.

NBP day-ahead gained almost 6 percent, and UK baseload power added a similar amount. Yet longer-dated contracts moved far less, widening the gap between near-term and forward pricing.

This morning’s session opened quieter, with gas broadly flat and power edging higher on thin liquidity. The figures below are the 22 July settlement, with an intraday reference taken around 09:25 on 23 July.

Gas Market

NBP day-ahead settled at 150.45 p/therm, up 7.95 on the session, a rise of roughly 5.6 percent. The front month, August-26, followed to 151.43 p/therm, while Q4-26 reached 154.43 p/therm and Winter-26 closed at 150.65 p/therm.

The move was supply-led. Norwegian export nominations eased to around 322.8 mcm/day, about 2 percent lower day on day, partly reflecting an unplanned outage at the Dvalin field.

Flows to the UK softened in step, and system demand firmed to 149.90 mcm/day as weaker wind forecasts across Britain and Germany lifted expected gas-for-power burn.

Storage remains the structural worry. EU inventories were 54.2 percent full on 20 July, around 10 percentage points below the same point last year, with daily injection rates slowing.

The curve tells a clear story. Prompt and near-winter contracts carried the day’s gains, but summer-27 at 98.33 p/therm and summer-28 near 68 p/therm sit far below the front, a deep backwardation that rewards buyers willing to look past the immediate risk premium.

Electricity Market

UK day-ahead baseload settled at £132.50/MWh, up £7.13, tracking gas higher. Peak power rose even harder, adding £8.57 to £127.92/MWh.

Along the curve, August-26 baseload reached £125.84/MWh, Q4-26 £130.37/MWh and Winter-26 £127.39/MWh.

Two forces reinforced the strength. Weaker wind generation forecasts point to heavier reliance on gas-fired CCGTs over the coming days. The nuclear fleet also remains heavily reduced, with both Sizewell B units, Hartlepool and Heysham capacity offline and Torness-2 due into planned maintenance from 31 July.

As with gas, the forward curve is markedly softer. Summer-27 baseload sits at £86.53/MWh, well under the near-dated contracts, so the same backwardated shape that governs gas hedging decisions applies to power.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent crude added USD 3.06 to USD 94.07 a barrel, up around 3.4 percent, as traders priced in the risk of disruption to Gulf shipping. Carbon moved with it: the EUA December-26 contract gained EUR 3.43 to EUR 86.63 a tonne, while the UK ETS December-26 allowance rose to £63.21 a tonne.

Coal API2 Cal-2027 firmed modestly to USD 126.30 a tonne, and Asian JKM LNG held near USD 22.00/MMBtu, keeping European cargo competition alive.

Storage and Supply Outlook

Beneath the headline balance, the UK system stayed comfortable. UKCS production held near 96 mcm/day, LNG send-out continued from the Isle of Grain and South Hook, and the country remained a net exporter through the IUK and BBL interconnectors at around 51 mcm/day combined. Linepack eased to 334.94 mcm.

The near-term LNG schedule is supportive rather than tight. Cargoes are due into Brunsbuttel, Wilhelmshaven and Gate over the next fortnight, drawn largely from the United States.

The bearish counterweight is temperature, with the UK forecast sitting close to the seasonal mean over the week ahead, capping cooling-driven demand.

The bullish tilt is really about confidence, not fundamentals. With storage low and geopolitics unresolved, the market is pricing a risk premium into the front of the curve rather than responding to a physical shortage.

What This Means for Your Business

The split between near-term and long-dated pricing is the key takeaway. Prompt contracts are carrying an obvious risk premium, while summer-27 and beyond remain materially cheaper. For businesses approaching renewal, that shape argues against locking your entire requirement at today’s front-end levels.

Buyers weighing fixed cover can find the current wholesale gas pricing far less punitive further out the curve than the day-ahead headline suggests.

For larger or more price-sensitive consumers, a tranche-based buying strategy can capture the softer forward prices without committing everything at the prompt peak.

Volatility of this kind, driven by headlines rather than balances, rarely resolves in a straight line, which makes timing and structure matter as much as the level itself. To review your contract position, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 22 July 2026