UK Energy Market Report - 23 June 2026
Wholesale gas and power slip as Middle East tensions ease, Brent hits a three-month low and European gas falls back toward two-month lows.
UK wholesale energy prices opened the week on the back foot, as a thaw in Middle East tensions pulled the risk premium out of both oil and gas.
Front-month gas and power both eased on the day, while the far curve softened a touch further, leaving the market firmly backwardated.
Near-term power held up better than gas, supported by warm weather and tighter French nuclear availability.
Gas Market
NBP day-ahead settled at 101.60 p/therm. The July front-month closed at 99.94 p/therm, down 1.1% on the day and 1.1% on the week, and now sits almost 17% below where it traded a month ago.
The summer strip stayed soft. Summer-27 eased to 80.56 p/therm and Cal-27 slipped to 87.07 p/therm, both modestly lower on the day.
Winter-26 was the exception, edging up 0.7% to 106.02 p/therm, though it remains down on the week. The winter premium over summer-27 underlines how much seasonal risk the market is still pricing in.
The move lower was led by de-escalation. Reports of a framework agreement in the US-Iran talks, and a 60-day licence for Iran to sell oil internationally, eased fears over supply through the Gulf.
Mine-clearing in the Strait of Hormuz has also begun to restore LNG shipping capacity, and that pushed European TTF down to a two-month low near 42.50 euros/MWh, erasing most of the war-driven gains.
For UK buyers, the read-across is straightforward. Britain imports a large share of its gas as LNG and via interconnectors, so calmer global shipping and a softer TTF feed almost directly into NBP.
The shape of the curve still matters more than the headline level. With the front month near 100 p/therm and Summer-27 in the low 80s, the market is paying up for prompt supply and discounting gas delivered a year out.
| Contract | Price (p/therm) | Change (week) |
|---|---|---|
| Day-Ahead | 101.60 | spot |
| Jul-26 (front) | 99.94 | ▼ 1.1% |
| Q3-26 | 100.69 | ▼ 1.3% |
| Winter-26 | 106.02 | ▼ 0.8% |
| Cal-27 (long-dated) | 87.07 | ▼ 0.1% |
Electricity Market
UK day-ahead baseload was assessed at 124.16 pounds/MWh, with the warm spell and air conditioning demand keeping spot power firm relative to the curve.
Forward power followed gas lower. The July contract fell 2.0% to 92.78 pounds/MWh and Q3-26 dropped 1.7% to 91.98 pounds/MWh.
Winter-26 eased 1.4% to 96.61 pounds/MWh, while the back end softened, with Summer-27 at 76.57 pounds/MWh and Cal-27 at 81.36 pounds/MWh.
On the generation side, the rolling 12-month picture shows wind providing about 25.9% of supply and gas-fired plant 24.0%, with renewables overall at roughly 47.1%.
For now, settled high-pressure conditions are limiting wind output, so gas is doing more of the heavy lifting and temperatures well above seasonal norms are forcing nuclear restrictions on warm French rivers. That mix keeps the front of the power curve sensitive to any change in weather.
Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities
Brent crude fell to around 76.70 US dollars a barrel, its lowest in nearly three months, as the easing of Gulf tensions removed a chunk of the geopolitical premium. WTI tracked it lower.
Carbon was quietly softer, with the EUA December contract slipping to 79.97 euros a tonne. The table below summarises the day’s moves across the main energy commodities.
| Commodity | Price | Change (day) |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $76.70/barrel | -1.1% |
| WTI | $73.10/barrel | -1.2% |
| EUA Carbon (Dec-26) | €79.97/tonne | -0.8% |
| JKM LNG (front-month) | $12.90/MMBtu | — |
| TTF Gas (front-month) | €42.50/MWh | 2-mth low |
Storage and Supply Outlook
The bullish counterweight to all of this remains storage. EU inventories were sitting near 40% of capacity in early June, well below the five-year seasonal norm of about 55%.
Injection season is under way, but Europe is refilling from a low base while Norwegian summer maintenance limits supply. That keeps the cost of rebuilding stocks for next winter as the key risk to the current softness.
In short, the spot and front-month falls are real, but they rest on a fundamentally tight storage position that could reassert itself quickly if the weather turns or supply news sours.
What This Means for Your Business
The split between a softer far curve and a still-jumpy front end is the story for buyers this week.
The pull-back in Summer-27 and Cal-27 gas and power opens a window for organisations with budget certainty in mind to lock part of their forward requirement at levels well below the recent peaks.
Near-term exposure is a different matter. With prices this sensitive to Middle East headlines and to weather, anyone buying flexibly should keep a close eye on day-ahead and winter positions.
A staged approach, taking advantage of curve weakness while holding back some volume, remains sensible in a market that can reprice on a single headline.
The low storage backdrop is the reason not to assume this softness simply continues. If Europe enters the autumn with stocks still below the seasonal norm, competition for winter cargoes could firm prices again, so the value on offer at the back of the curve may not last.
To talk through how these moves affect your contracts and your procurement strategy, speak to one of our energy consultants today.
Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 22 June 2026