Every NBP contract settled higher for a second session and the gas day-ahead made a fresh multi-year high at 164.00p, while UK day-ahead power fell 15.5% and the balancing market went negative twice over the weekend.

Friday put every NBP contract higher for a second session and left the gas day-ahead at a fresh multi-year high.

The power prompt did the opposite. Day-ahead baseload fell 21.98 to 119.99 £/MWh, the peak block fell 27.5%, and over the weekend the balancing market paid people to take electricity twice.

Gas Market

NBP Day-Ahead settled at 164.00p on 21 August, up 2.75p or 1.7%, the highest close of this run and a fresh multi-year high alongside TTF.

Every contract on the board rose with it for a second consecutive session. Sep-26 added 1.35p to 162.58p, Oct-26 1.56p to 163.46p, Nov-26 1.69p to 166.61p and Q4-26 1.54p to 166.12p.

Winter-26 gained 1.41p to 164.01p and Q1-27 1.27p to 161.85p, while Winter-28 led the board in percentage terms at 1.4%.

The prompt led, and that is the change. At 164.00p the day-ahead now sits above Sep-26, above Oct-26, above Q1-27 and level with Winter-26 at 164.01p. There is effectively no carry left at the front of this curve.

Britain took back the cheapest hub position it lost on Thursday without having to move. NBP settled 164.00p against PVB 167.22p, turning a 0.96p premium to Spain into a 3.22p discount, because Spain moved 6.93p in one session against Britain’s 2.75p.

Britain is below all six continental hubs again, TTF at 166.13p, PEG 166.18p, THE 167.22p, Austrian VTP 169.45p and PSV 171.99p, with the NBP discount to TTF narrowing to 2.13p from 3.21p.

Supply is not the reason this time, because supply improved. Norwegian gas into Britain reached 76.80 mcm/day at the 07:00 stamp, Langeled up 5.70 to 62.80 and Vesterled and Flags up 2.00 to 14.00, against 69.10 on Friday. TotalEnergies puts the later nomination at 78 mcm/day.

Norwegian Continental Shelf exit nominations are 337.2 mcm/day, higher than the end of last week even though Troll maintenance started today and is curtailing 24.4 mcm/day on its own. The system is comfortable on every measure. Demand fell 15.46 to 130.56 mcm/day, linepack built 22.07 to 360.71 mcm, and TotalEnergies reports the system opening 24 mcm/day long.

So this is storage and September maintenance being priced, not a supply interruption. LNG sendout is unchanged again at 8.10 mcm/day, Isle of Grain 3.20 and South Hook 4.90, while 47.24 mcm/day still leaves the country through IUK and BBL.

At the 09:31 stamp this morning the split continues. Day-Ahead is indicated 0.50p lower at 163.50p while every forward is marked up, Q4-26 at 168.04p and Winter-26 at 165.96p, both around 1.9p above Friday’s close.

Read the far end with care, and note it has flipped. The same index marks Winter-27 3.62p, Summer-28 5.78p and Winter-28 5.61p above settlement; three sessions ago it was marking Winter-27 24.23p below. Those are not dealable prices on contracts that barely trade.

The card below summarises where NBP contracts settled on Friday against the previous session.

Electricity Market

UK day-ahead baseload settled at 119.99 £/MWh on 21 August, down 21.98 or 15.5%. Day-ahead peak fell further, down 37.22 or 27.5% to 98.21 £/MWh.

That puts the peak block 21.78 £/MWh below baseload, against 6.54 on Thursday. The summer inversion has more than tripled in a session.

The weekend went further than an inversion. The daily minimum System Sell Price was minus 16.31 £/MWh on Saturday at 10:44 and minus 5.02 on Sunday at 13:48, both around the middle of the day, which is solar. The same two days carried maximum System Buy Prices of 199.50 and 204.80 £/MWh, at 18:44 and 17:18. Saturday ran a 215.81 £/MWh spread between its cheapest and dearest half hours and Sunday 209.82.

None of it reached the forwards, which rose everywhere. Sep-26 added 1.57 to 128.80 £/MWh, Oct-26 0.98 to 128.64, Nov-26 0.70 to 138.75 and Q4-26 0.65 to 134.90.

Q1-27 gained 1.47 to 133.97 and Winter-26 1.06 to 134.44, a sixth consecutive rise, with Summer-27 up 1.45 to 90.29 and Winter-28 1.38 to 75.30.

The forward market is clear that the inversion is a summer feature. Winter-26 peak settled at 153.30 £/MWh against Winter-26 baseload at 134.44, an 18.86 premium, on the same board where the prompt peak trades 21.78 below the prompt base.

Friday’s report published 113.10 to 180.62 as that day’s range and flagged it as a part day. The ceiling held exactly at 180.62, because the maximum had already printed at 05:44 before the stamp. The floor resolved 23.10 lower at 90.00, at 15:44, six hours after it. That is the clearest illustration yet of why the part-day row misses: it is only wrong about the half of the day that has not happened. Today so far reads 120.12 to 177.00, stamped before 09:31, and carries the same warning.

The morning price index was close on gas and wide at the far end. Day-Ahead was indicated 164.48p and settled 164.00p, out 0.48, with Q4-26 indicated 167.79p and settled 166.12p, out 1.67. Winter-27 was marked 24.23p below settlement and closed 103.38p, out 24.63. As ever, quote an indication with its timestamp and build nothing on which way it points.

The nuclear stack is thinner into September. Torness 1 came off on 21 August for 17 days and 640 MW, alongside Heysham 1 reactor 1, off since 17 August for 610 MW. Heysham 2 reactor 8 then goes off on 4 September for 80 days and 660 MW, which runs to late November.

Wind is timed against today rather than the week. Forecast wind and solar output is near 7,200 MWh today, roughly 2,500 MWh under the seasonal norm of about 9,700, then jumps above 11,700 MWh tomorrow. Day-ahead baseload is offered 11.51 higher at 131.50 £/MWh this morning on the back of it.

France adds to tomorrow rather than today. TotalEnergies expects just under 7 GW of heat-related nuclear curtailments on 25 August as low river flows bite again, after several sessions of French output recovering.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent M+1 settled at 94.39 $/barrel on 21 August, up 0.61 or 0.7%, a fifth consecutive rise and the highest close of this run.

TotalEnergies reports oil easing this morning even so, ahead of an expected United States announcement later today on new financial sanctions against Iran and its trading partners.

Coal API2 for Cal-27 added 0.49 to $128.77/tonne, a rise of 0.4%.

Carbon rose on both sides of the Channel, EUA Dec-26 up 0.16 to €82.61 and UK ETS Dec-26 up 0.52 to £59.49, the larger move of the two at 0.9%.

At Friday’s 1.1673 sterling rate the European allowance is worth about £70.77, putting the UK scheme £11.28 a tonne below its European equivalent against £11.71 on Thursday. The discount UK obligation holders have been buying into narrowed for the first time this week.

In LNG, JKM front month rose 0.33 to $22.94/MMBtu, TTF spot 0.28 to $22.69 and NBP spot 0.38 to $22.36, while Henry Hub eased 0.01 to $2.82. The JKM premium over TTF widened slightly to 0.25 $/MMBtu from 0.20, and sterling firmed marginally on both crosses at 1.1673 and 1.3633.

British gas is 7.9 times the price of American gas at the same moment, which is the number that eventually moves cargoes across the Atlantic.

Commodity	Price	Change (day)
Brent Crude (M+1)	$94.39/barrel	+0.7%
Coal API2 (Cal-27)	$128.77/tonne	+0.4%
EUA Carbon (Dec-26)	€82.61/tonne	+0.2%
UK ETS (Dec-26)	£59.49/tonne	+0.9%
JKM LNG (front-month)	$22.94/MMBtu	+1.5%
TTF Gas (spot)	$22.69/MMBtu	+1.2%

Storage and Supply Outlook

EU gas storage stood at 61.82% full on 19 August, TotalEnergies reports, around 12.4 percentage points below the same point last year.

At country level Britain gained a point to 40% and is still the emptiest system in Europe, three points below the next one up. Italy sits at 80%, Spain 73%, France 65%, Germany 50%, and Belgium and the Netherlands at 43% and 48%.

The site level is the first genuine reversal in a fortnight. Stublach gained six points to 68%, Aldbrough four to 35%, Holford three to 67%, and Hornsea and Hill Top two each to 50% and 27%.

Every seasonal site injected. The only two that fell are the LNG tanks, South Hook down four to 61% and Isle of Grain down one to 33%, which is sendout rather than withdrawal, and Rough and Humbly Grove are still at zero.

The arrivals schedule into North West Europe carries ten cargoes and 950 mcm out to 28 August. Six are American, two Norwegian, one Nigerian into Dunkirk and one unspecified into Fos.

One of them is British. Milford Haven takes 96 mcm from the United States on 26 August, the first UK arrival to appear on this schedule after six consecutive editions without one.

That single cargo is the thing to watch this week, because sendout has been stuck at 8.10 mcm/day all the while.

On weather, UK temperatures climb from about 16C today to near 19C on 26 August before returning to seasonal norms by the weekend, against an eight-day mean near 16C.

What This Means for Your Business

Q4-26 gas closed on 7 August at 139.23p and settled Friday at 166.12p. That is 26.89p a therm in ten trading sessions, worth roughly £9,175 a year on a 1 GWh gas load.

Winter-26 power has added 9.67 £/MWh since 13 August, worth about £9,670 a year on a 1 GWh electricity load. Six sessions, one direction, on both fuels.

The prompt says the opposite, and it is a trap. Power day-ahead fell 15.5% on Friday and the weekend paid people to take electricity at lunchtime, while the contract a buyer would sign for next winter went up again.

Cheap spot power says nothing about the price of winter cover. It says the sun was out on a Saturday.

The winter premium is what to price. At 58.34p a therm it is a fresh high for this run, which is why businesses able to buy their winter cover in tranches rather than in one decision are still holding the better hand.

For electricity the weekend is an argument, not an anomaly. A 215.81 £/MWh spread inside one Saturday is what a half-hourly consumption profile can actually be paid for, through shifting load or through the right contract structure, and those days are becoming more frequent rather than less.

The far end still looks different from the front. Summer-28 gas at 73.22p is 44.6% of Winter-26 at 164.01p, so a buyer covering 2028 is in a different market from a buyer covering this winter.

The near-term watch list is short. Troll is curtailing 24.4 mcm/day from today, 1,250 MW of nuclear is off with another 660 MW due out on 4 September, and Britain enters that window emptiest in Europe with one LNG cargo booked.

For a view tailored to your consumption profile and renewal window, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 21 August 2026