UK Energy Market Report - 24 July 2026
NBP prompt gas eases on milder weather while the back of the curve firms, power tracks lower, and Brent leaps 7% on Middle East supply fears.
The UK energy market split two ways on 24 July. Prompt gas and power drifted lower on milder weather and soft summer fundamentals, yet the back of the curve firmed as thin liquidity met a stubbornly backwardated shape. The bigger move came from oil, with Brent jumping around 7% overnight on fresh Middle East supply fears.
Here is what UK business energy buyers need to know today.
Gas Market
NBP Day-Ahead settled at 149.25 p/therm on 23 July, down 1.20p or roughly 0.8% on the session. Milder temperatures across northwest and southern Europe, expected to hold below seasonal norms through 24 July, capped cooling demand and weighed on the front of the curve.
By late morning today the prompt was trading broadly sideways, hovering near 150p, with the UK system opening around 7 mcm/day long. Norwegian supply stayed dependable at about 320 mcm/day, though unplanned maintenance at Dvalin continued to trim nominations.
The story further out is different. With liquidity thin along the curve, seasonal contracts firmed. Q4-26 sits near 153.6p and Winter-26 close to 150p, while Summer-27 trades under 100p, a reminder of just how backwardated this market remains.
That heavy backwardation, where prompt prices sit well above winter and summer contracts, keeps discouraging storage injections. EU gas storage stood at 54.4% full on 21 July, around 11 percentage points behind the same point last year.
On the supply side, the UK continued to export through the interconnectors, sending roughly 35 mcm/day to Belgium via IUK and about 16 mcm/day to the Netherlands via BBL, while linepack built modestly to around 341 mcm. LNG sendout was nominated near 8.4 mcm/day across Grain, South Hook and Dragon.
The card below summarises where NBP contracts closed against the previous session.
| NBP Contract | Price (p/therm) | Change (day) |
|---|---|---|
| Day-Ahead | 149.25 | ▼ 1.20 |
| Aug-26 | 149.45 | ▼ 1.98 |
| Q4-26 | 153.56 | ▼ 0.87 |
| Winter-26 | 149.93 | ▼ 0.72 |
| Summer-27 (long-dated) | 99.79 | ▲ 1.46 |
Indicative market level, settlement 23 July 2026. Source: TotalEnergies Daily Market Review.
Electricity Market
UK Day-Ahead baseload settled at 129.75 £/MWh, down 2.75p or about 2.1%, as power broadly tracked gas lower at the front of the curve.
Wind generation is forecast to ease, lifting gas-for-power demand by roughly 9 mcm/day, while solar output remains above seasonal norms and is expected to stay elevated into early August. Nuclear availability is still soft, with unplanned outages across Heysham and Hartlepool units limiting baseload cover.
Forward power echoed gas: near-curve contracts slipped a touch while the back end edged higher. Winter-26 baseload holds near 127 £/MWh and Winter-26 peak around 143.5 £/MWh, with Summer-27 down near 87 £/MWh.
Balancing costs stayed punchy. The daily maximum System Buy Price reached 195 £/MWh in the small hours of 24 July, while the minimum System Sell Price held at 95 £/MWh, a wide spread that underlines how tight the evening peaks have been across the week.
Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities
Oil stole the day. Brent M+1 leapt to 100.69 $/barrel, up around 7%, after further attacks on Middle East shipping and reports that the US is weighing large-scale military strikes. Adding to the risk backdrop, the US administration has imposed fresh tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on goods from around 60 trading partners, including Europe and China.
Carbon moved the other way, with EUA Dec-26 down 3.2% to €83.88 and UK ETS off 3.0% to £61.33. Coal API2 for Cal-27 eased 1.4% to $124.49/tonne. On currency, sterling slipped against the dollar to 1.3313 while holding steady against the euro at 1.1721, a small tailwind for euro-denominated gas and carbon costs.
| Commodity | Price | Change (day) |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude (M+1) | $100.69/barrel | +7.0% |
| Coal API2 (Cal-27) | $124.49/tonne | -1.4% |
| EUA Carbon (Dec-26) | €83.88/tonne | -3.2% |
| UK ETS (Dec-26) | £61.33/tonne | -3.0% |
| JKM LNG (front-month) | $21.82/MMBtu | — |
| TTF Gas (front-month) | €62/MWh | — |
Storage and Supply Outlook
Europe is refilling storage more slowly than usual. Sendout across the seven largest markets fell about 55 mcm/day week-on-week while demand rose, cutting net injections by roughly 20 mcm/day.
The LNG picture stays firm, with a steady run of US cargoes arriving into northwest Europe through late July and into August. Geopolitical risk is the wildcard: no LNG carrier has transited the Strait of Hormuz since 12 July, and while that has not yet tightened European balances, it keeps a risk premium in the market.
What This Means for Your Business
Today’s split market rewards a clear head. The near curve is soft on weather and comfortable prompt supply, but the firm back end and a 7% oil spike show how quickly sentiment can turn. Buyers weighing where business gas prices sit against the curve should not read the prompt dip as a green light for the whole book.
With winter still trading at a premium to summer, fixing everything at once locks in the most expensive part of the curve. A flexible, tranche-based approach lets you take cover on the softer summer contracts while leaving room to move if geopolitics unwinds the oil premium.
For a view tailored to your consumption profile and renewal window, speak to one of our energy consultants today.
Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 23 July 2026
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