UK Energy Market Report - 24 June 2026

UK wholesale gas and electricity market update for 24 June 2026, with NBP prices, day-ahead power, Brent crude and procurement guidance.

UK wholesale energy is trading sideways at the start of the week, with the sharp falls of recent days giving way to a quieter, more balanced market. The big story remains the unwind of the Middle East risk premium, which has dragged gas down around 7.5% over the past month.

Gas and power are now pulling in slightly different directions. The prompt is firm on a hot, low-wind UK system, while the forward curve continues to soften as the geopolitical premium drains out of later contracts.

Gas Market

NBP day-ahead settled around 101.60 p/therm, a touch firmer on the day as warm weather and weak wind lifted gas-for-power demand. The wider trend is still lower, with the contract down roughly 7.5% over the past 30 days.

The driver behind that fall has not changed. Progress in US and Iran talks over the weekend has reduced the chance of regional escalation, and the reopening of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz has restored confidence in LNG supply.

Fundamentals are comfortable. Norwegian exit nominations are holding near 336 mcm/day, UKCS receipts have recovered with Easington back up, and storage across Europe keeps filling. A firm JKM continues to pull flexible cargoes toward Asia, but there is no shortage of gas in north-west Europe for the time of year.

Further along the curve the picture is softer. Winter-26 eased back toward 101 p/therm and Cal-27 slipped to around 84 p/therm. The market is taking the war premium out of the forwards faster than it is moving the prompt.

Electricity Market

Day-ahead baseload power held firm, trading up toward the £150/MWh region as a hot spell pushed cooling demand higher and wind output stayed weak. Wind covered less than 10% of the mix through the day, leaving gas plant carrying around a third of demand.

Solar did much of the heavy lifting, at times supplying more than a third of generation through the middle of the day. That helped cap prices over the solar peak, but the evening ramp left the system leaning hard on gas and imports as panels dropped off.

Heat-related nuclear curtailments across France added to the tightness, limiting the interconnector cushion the UK often relies on. The result is a power market that is holding up on fundamentals even as gas and oil soften.

The forward curve told the calmer story. Summer-27 baseload sits near £76/MWh, well below the prompt, as the back of the curve tracks the easing in gas rather than the day-to-day weather.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Crude led the moves lower. Brent dropped about 3% to $74.73 a barrel, its weakest level since before the Iran strikes earlier in the year, as the easing in Hormuz shipping fears and the prospect of more barrels returning to market took the wind out of prices. WTI fell in step to around $71.02.

European carbon was little changed, with EUA allowances down 0.22% to just over €80 a tonne. TTF gas firmed slightly, up 0.70% to around €42/MWh, holding near the lower end of its recent range.

Storage and Supply Outlook

EU gas storage keeps refilling through the injection season, sitting comfortably above 60% and climbing as cheaper gas encourages buyers to build stock ahead of next winter.

With Norwegian supply running well and LNG arrivals into north-west Europe steady, the supply side looks well covered. From here the main swing factors are summer weather, how hard storage is pushed toward full, and whether the calmer geopolitical backdrop holds.

On the policy front, Ofgem continues to weigh changes to gas grid charging aimed at making the UK a more attractive route for LNG transiting on to Europe.

What This Means for Your Business

The gap between a firm prompt and a softer forward curve is the key takeaway today. If you are buying short-term flexible volume, the day-to-day market is being driven by heat and wind, not the wider trend, so timing matters.

For businesses weighing longer fixed terms, the steady drift lower in Winter-26 and Cal-27 is the more meaningful signal. The risk premium that built up through early June is still coming out of the forwards, which opens a window worth watching.

A single geopolitical headline could put that premium straight back in, which is exactly why a deliberate buying strategy beats reacting to the news. To review your position and build an approach that fits your risk profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 23 June 2026