UK Energy Market Report - 25 August 2026

Every NBP and UK baseload contract settled higher on 24 August, with the gas curve adding up to 5.90p and Winter-26 closing at 169.76p, while day-ahead power rebounded 9.6% and Brent was the only contract on the board to fall.

Monday put every gas and every baseload contract higher, and this time the curve led rather than the prompt.

NBP forwards added between 5.61p and 5.90p while the day-ahead managed 2.15p. Power reversed Friday’s collapse, the prompt up 9.6% and the peak block up 22.5%. Brent was the only contract on the board to fall.

Gas Market

NBP Day-Ahead settled at 166.15p on 24 August, up 2.15p or 1.3%, a fresh high for this run.

The forwards did the work. Sep-26 added 5.62p to 168.20p, Oct-26 5.71p to 169.17p and Nov-26 5.90p to 172.51p, the largest single move on the board.

Q4-26 gained 5.88p to 172.00p, Winter-26 5.75p to 169.76p and Q1-27 5.61p to 167.47p. Every one of those is a rise of about 3.5%, against 1.3% on the prompt.

That reverses Friday, when the day-ahead led and the carry at the front of the curve had gone. Sep-26 settled 1.42p below the day-ahead on Friday and 2.05p above it on Monday, a 3.47p swing in one session.

The structural point is further out. Q4-26 at 172.00p now sits 4.53p above Q1-27 at 167.47p, wider than Friday’s 4.27p, so the market is pricing the autumn injection window above January, February and March. That is a statement about getting storage filled rather than about winter weather.

The far end barely moved. Summer-27 added 1.99p to 107.66p and everything beyond it under 1%, Winter-28 just 0.36p. Backwardation steepened again.

Britain stayed the cheapest hub in Europe and got cheaper. NBP settled 166.15p against TTF at 171.03p, widening the discount to 4.88p from 2.13p on Friday, with PVB at 170.63p, PEG 171.42p, THE 172.16p, Austrian VTP 174.80p and PSV 179.52p.

Supply gives no reason for the move. At the 07:00 stamp Norwegian gas into Britain was 76.10 mcm/day, Langeled 64.10 and Vesterled and Flags 12.00, down 2.60 in total, while UKCS production eased 2.30 to 88.60 mcm/day.

TotalEnergies puts Norwegian Continental Shelf exit nominations at 337.7 mcm/day against 343.7 the previous session, with Troll capacity available to 29 August, and reports UK flows easing by 7 mcm/day on a later read than the table.

The system is long, not short. TotalEnergies has it opening 29 mcm/day long, LNG sendout is unchanged again at 8.10 mcm/day, and 50.48 mcm/day left the country through IUK and BBL, up from 47.56 on Friday.

One correction to the commentary. TotalEnergies reports September gaining roughly 2.4% on the day; the settlement table has Sep-26 up 5.62p from 162.58p, which is 3.5%.

At the 09:32 stamp this morning the near board is marked lower and the far board sharply higher. Day-Ahead is indicated 166.06p, Sep-26 167.32p and Q4-26 171.23p, all a little under settlement, while Summer-27 is marked 5.34p up at 113.00p and Winter-27 5.63p up at 110.00p. Those far-end prints are not dealable prices on contracts that barely trade.

The card below summarises where NBP contracts settled on Monday against the previous session.

Electricity Market

UK day-ahead baseload settled at 131.47 £/MWh on 24 August, up 11.48 or 9.6%. Day-ahead peak rose further, up 22.09 or 22.5% to 120.30 £/MWh.

The summer inversion halved rather than closed. The peak block is 11.17 £/MWh below baseload, against 21.78 on Friday.

Forwards rose across the board. Nov-26 added 5.13 to 143.88 £/MWh, Q4-26 4.39 to 139.29, Winter-26 4.06 to 138.50, Q1-27 3.73 to 137.70 and Oct-26 3.98 to 132.62.

Power carries the same front-loaded shape as gas. Q4-26 at 139.29 sits 1.59 above Q1-27 at 137.70, and Winter-26 peak at 158.23 is 19.73 above Winter-26 baseload on a board where the prompt peak trades 11.17 below the prompt base.

TotalEnergies puts Calendar 2027 baseload near 102.7 £/MWh, which it calls the highest since 2023. That contract is not on the settlement board, so it is their number rather than ours.

The morning price index makes the point it keeps making. Friday’s report carried gas Day-Ahead indicated at 163.50p and it settled 166.15p, out 2.65, with Q4-26 marked 168.04p against 172.00p and Winter-26 165.96p against 169.76p, out 3.96 and 3.80. All three were under on a day the market rose.

Power on the same morning was offered 131.50 £/MWh and settled 131.47, out by three pence. One index, one stamp, inside three pence on power and nearly 4p light across the gas curve. Quote an indication with its timestamp and build nothing on which way it points.

The part-day system price row resolved further off than it has all month. Friday’s report published 120.12 to 177.00 for 24 August and flagged it as a part day. The day settled 14.22 to 200.00, the ceiling out 23.00 and the floor out 105.90. Both have the same cause: the maximum printed at 19:48 and the minimum at 13:48, ten and four hours after the 09:31 stamp, so neither had happened when the row was written.

Today reads 98.00 to 180.00, and this one is different. The maximum printed at 01:18 and the minimum at 08:19, both before the 09:32 stamp, so both are settled fact for the eight hours that have elapsed. The fifteen hours still to come are where the last two sessions found their extremes.

The weekend was wider still. Saturday ran minus 16.31 £/MWh to 199.50 and Sunday minus 5.02 to 204.80, spreads of 215.81 and 209.82 inside a single day, against Monday’s 185.78.

The nuclear stack is thin and gets thinner. Heysham 1 reactor 1 has been off since 17 August for 610 MW and Torness 1 since 21 August for 640 MW, 1,250 MW between them, with Hartlepool 2 back around 23 August behind TotalEnergies reporting nuclear at roughly 4.3 GW, a four-month high.

Heysham 2 reactor 8 then goes off on 4 September for 80 days and 660 MW, which runs to late November and straight through the quarter the forward market has just repriced.

Wind is the near-term swing. TotalEnergies has output back near 8 GWh/h, and the forecast runs near 12,000 MWh today before a trough near 8,000 MWh on 28 August, roughly 1,700 under the seasonal norm, then back above 12,000 MWh by 1 September. Day-ahead gas-for-power demand is already 4 mcm/day higher on it.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent M+1 settled at 92.17 $/barrel on 24 August, down 2.22 or 2.4%, the only contract on the board to fall and the end of a run of five consecutive rises.

TotalEnergies reports Iran pledging to retaliate against expanded United States sanctions, and oil easing this morning after the announcement rather than on it.

Coal API2 for Cal-27 added 0.75 to $129.52/tonne, a rise of 0.6%.

Carbon rose on both sides of the Channel, EUA Dec-26 up 1.19 to €83.80 and UK ETS Dec-26 up 1.09 to £60.58, through 60 for the first time in this run.

At Monday’s 1.1689 sterling rate the European allowance is worth about £71.69, putting the UK scheme £11.11 a tonne below its European equivalent against £11.28 on Friday. The discount has narrowed for a second session.

In LNG, JKM front month rose 0.57 to $23.51/MMBtu, TTF spot 0.63 to $23.32 and NBP spot 0.29 to $22.65, while Henry Hub added a cent to $2.83. The JKM premium over TTF narrowed to 0.19 $/MMBtu from 0.25.

British gas is 8.0 times the price of American gas at the same moment, and sterling barely moved on either cross at 1.1689 and 1.3630.

Commodity	Price	Change (day)
Brent Crude (M+1)	$92.17/barrel	-2.4%
Coal API2 (Cal-27)	$129.52/tonne	+0.6%
EUA Carbon (Dec-26)	€83.80/tonne	+1.4%
UK ETS (Dec-26)	£60.58/tonne	+1.8%
JKM LNG (front-month)	$23.51/MMBtu	+2.5%
TTF Gas (spot)	$23.32/MMBtu	+2.8%

Storage and Supply Outlook

EU gas storage stood at 62.64% full on 24 August, TotalEnergies reports, up 0.8 points in five days.

At country level Britain gained three points to 43% and is no longer alone at the bottom. Italy sits at 80%, Spain 73%, France 65%, Germany 50%, and the Netherlands and Belgium at 48% and 43%.

The site picture stayed positive but narrowed. Stublach and Aldbrough each gained three points to 71% and 38%, Holford one to 68% and Hornsea one to 51%, with Holehouse Farm at 70%.

Hill Top fell three points to 24%, the only seasonal site to give ground. The two LNG tanks eased a point each, South Hook to 60% and Isle of Grain to 32%, which is sendout rather than withdrawal, and Rough and Humbly Grove are still at zero.

The arrivals schedule into North West Europe carries ten cargoes and 950 mcm out to 28 August. Six are American and account for 574 mcm, two are Norwegian, one Nigerian into Dunkirk and one unspecified into Fos.

One of them is British, and it is the same one as last week. Milford Haven takes 96 mcm from the United States on 26 August, still the only UK arrival on the schedule, now a day out.

On weather, UK temperatures run above the seasonal mean all week, near 19C on 26 August, before converging on a mean near 15.5C by 31 August.

What This Means for Your Business

Q4-26 gas closed on 7 August at 139.23p and settled Monday at 172.00p. That is 32.77p a therm in eleven trading sessions, worth roughly £11,181 a year on a 1 GWh gas load.

Winter-26 power has added 13.73 £/MWh since 13 August, worth about £13,730 a year on a 1 GWh electricity load.

The shape matters more than the level, and it is a timing point. A business whose gas contract starts in April is looking at Summer-27 gas at 107.66p; one starting in October is looking at 172.00p for the same commodity, and 64p a therm of that gap is calendar rather than commodity.

The winter premium at 62.10p a therm is a fresh high for this run, which is the case for knowing exactly where a gas renewal date sits against this curve before deciding when to fix any of it.

For electricity the prompt is doing the arguing. Day-ahead baseload rose 9.6% on Monday after falling 15.5% on Friday, and the weekend put 215 £/MWh between the cheapest and dearest half hours of a single Saturday. That range is what a contract structure and a half-hourly profile have to absorb, and it is widening rather than settling.

The far end still looks like a different market. Summer-28 gas at 73.86p is 43.5% of Winter-26 at 169.76p, so cover for 2028 is priced on a completely different set of assumptions from cover for this winter.

The watch list is short and all of it lands in the quarter that just repriced. Heysham 2 reactor 8 takes 660 MW off on 4 September for 80 days, wind troughs on 28 August, one LNG cargo is booked, and Britain goes into the autumn 43% full.

For a view tailored to your consumption profile and renewal window, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 24 August 2026