UK Energy Market Report - 25 June 2026
UK wholesale gas and electricity market update for 25 June 2026, with NBP prices, day-ahead power, Brent crude and procurement guidance.
UK wholesale energy continues to edge lower, with the unwind of the Middle East risk premium still doing most of the work. Gas has now shed close to 18% over the past month as the war premium leaves the curve.
The day-to-day picture is split. The prompt stays well supported on a hot, low-wind system, while the forward curve keeps softening as traders price in a calmer geopolitical backdrop and plentiful supply.
Gas Market
NBP day-ahead settled near 98.65 p/therm, slipping back below the 100 mark as the supply-disruption premium continues to drain away. Front-month Jul-26 eased to 97.18 p/therm, down 2.6% on the week.
The catalyst remains the same. A US and Iran ceasefire has cut the risk of regional escalation, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is returning to normal after more than 11,000 stranded seafarers began moving out under safety guarantees. LNG transport confidence has recovered with it.
Fundamentals stay comfortable. Norwegian flows are running well, north-west European supply is ample for the time of year, and storage keeps filling through the injection season. A firm Asian JKM is still pulling some flexible cargoes east, but there is no shortage of molecules in the UK system.
Further out the curve is softer again. Winter-26 eased to 103.56 p/therm and Cal-27 slipped to 85.55 p/therm. The market is taking the premium out of the forwards faster than it is moving the prompt.
| Contract | Price (p/therm) | Change (week) |
|---|---|---|
| Day-Ahead | 98.65 | ▼ 2.0% |
| Jul-26 | 97.18 | ▼ 2.6% |
| Q3-26 | 98.06 | ▼ 2.6% |
| Winter-26 | 103.56 | ▼ 1.9% |
| Cal-27 (long-dated) | 85.55 | ▼ 1.2% |
Electricity Market
Day-ahead baseload held firm near £115/MWh as a prolonged heatwave lifted cooling demand and wind output stayed weak. Wind covered well under 10% of the mix at times, leaving gas plant to carry a large share of the load.
Solar did much of the daytime heavy lifting, capping prices over the midday peak. The evening ramp told the tighter story, with the system leaning hard on gas and imports once panels dropped off.
Heat-related nuclear curtailments across France trimmed the interconnector cushion the UK often relies on, adding to the tightness. The result is a power market holding up on fundamentals even as gas and oil soften.
The forward curve stayed calmer. Summer-27 baseload sits near £75/MWh, well below the prompt, as the back of the curve tracks the easing in gas rather than the day-to-day weather.
Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities
Crude led the moves lower again. Brent fell about 3% to $74.73 a barrel, its weakest level since before the Iran strikes earlier in the year, dipping below $70 intraday as the easing in Hormuz shipping fears and the prospect of more barrels returning took the heat out of the market. WTI dropped in step to around $71.02.
European carbon was a touch softer, with EUA allowances down 0.40% to just above €80 a tonne. TTF gas slipped 0.50% to around €41.80/MWh, holding near the lower end of its recent range.
| Commodity | Price | Change (day) |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $74.73/barrel | -3.05% |
| WTI | $71.02/barrel | -3.00% |
| EUA Carbon (Dec-26) | €80.20/tonne | -0.40% |
| JKM LNG (front-month) | $11.80/MMBtu | — |
| TTF Gas (front-month) | €41.80/MWh | -0.50% |
Storage and Supply Outlook
EU gas storage keeps refilling through injection season, sitting comfortably above 60% and climbing as cheaper gas encourages buyers to build stock ahead of next winter.
With Norwegian supply running well and LNG arrivals into north-west Europe steady, the supply side looks well covered. From here the main swing factors are summer weather, how hard storage is pushed toward full, and whether the calmer geopolitical backdrop holds.
On the policy front, Ofgem continues to weigh changes to gas grid charging aimed at making the UK a more attractive route for LNG transiting on to Europe.
What This Means for Your Business
The gap between a firm prompt and a softer forward curve is again the key takeaway. If you are buying short-term flexible volume, the day-to-day market is being driven by heat and wind, not the wider trend, so timing matters.
For businesses weighing longer fixed terms, the steady drift lower in Winter-26 and Cal-27 is the more meaningful signal. The premium that built up through early June is still coming out of the forwards, which keeps a window open worth watching.
A single geopolitical headline could put that premium straight back in, which is exactly why a deliberate buying strategy beats reacting to the news. To review your position and build an approach that fits your risk profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.
Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 24 June 2026