UK Energy Market Report - 27 August 2026

Ten of eleven NBP contracts fell again on 26 August, but the falls shrank to a fraction of Tuesday’s, and day-ahead peak power jumped 6.0% to finish above baseload for the first time in this run.

Gas Market

NBP Day-Ahead settled at 160.50p on 26 August, down 0.90p or 0.6%, a second fall but a far smaller one than Tuesday’s 4.75p.

Sep-26 lost 2.09p to 161.02p, the largest fall on the board. Oct-26 gave back 1.87p to 162.26p, Nov-26 1.93p to 165.95p, Q4-26 1.89p to 165.37p, Winter-26 1.71p to 163.64p and Q1-27 1.53p to 161.87p. Summer-27 was the only contract to rise, by 0.08p to 106.00p.

The front of the curve keeps changing shape. At 161.02p the front month sits 0.52p above the day-ahead, against 1.71p above on Tuesday and 2.05p on Monday, so the carry that came back on Tuesday is already being squeezed out again.

Britain stayed the cheapest hub in Europe and got cheaper relative to the continent. NBP settled 160.50p against TTF at 165.56p, widening the discount to 5.06p from 4.96p, with PVB at 164.62p, PEG 166.35p, THE 166.63p, Austrian VTP 168.96p and PSV 177.27p.

Supply is why the prompt is easing. TotalEnergies reports the unplanned Troll outage complete, with total Norwegian exports nominated 10 mcm/day higher today at 336 mcm/day and the whole increase directed into Britain through Langeled.

The 07:00 flow table is stamped earlier and reads more modestly: Langeled up 7.60 to 62.90 mcm/day, Vesterled and Flags unchanged at 13.00, so 75.90 mcm/day from Norway against 68.30 yesterday afternoon. Both are true at their own timestamp.

Domestic supply moved the other way. UKCS production fell 3.80 to 88.80 mcm/day, demand rose 6.31 to 154.72 and linepack drew 2.64 to 340.16 mcm. LNG sendout eased 0.80 to 9.70 mcm/day, and 49.83 mcm/day still left the country through IUK and BBL.

Three dates now sit in the next fortnight. Gullfaks goes down for unplanned testing work from 30 August for about 6 mcm/day, Cygnus maintenance starts on 31 August and IUK maintenance on 1 September.

One correction to the commentary, and it is the direction rather than the level. TotalEnergies describes NBP spot and the front of the curve as having softened this morning while the far curve firmed; on its own 09:34 index every NBP contract is marked above Wednesday’s settlement, Day-Ahead by 0.45p and Sep-26 by 0.23p.

At that 09:34 stamp Day-Ahead is indicated 160.95p, Sep-26 161.25p, Q4-26 166.04p and Winter-26 164.53p. The far end is marked far harder, Winter-28 12.62p higher at 92.10p, which is a barely traded contract and a direction rather than a dealable price.

The card below summarises where NBP contracts settled on Wednesday against the previous session.

Electricity Market

UK day-ahead baseload settled at 140.60 £/MWh on 26 August, up 0.42 or 0.3%. Day-ahead peak rose 8.10 or 6.0% to 143.01 £/MWh.

That closes the summer inversion. The peak block now settles 2.41 £/MWh above baseload, having been 5.27 below on Tuesday, 11.17 below on Monday and 21.78 below on Friday. Four sessions of narrowing and it has crossed over.

The forwards split by season. Sep-26 eased 0.15 to 129.37 £/MWh, Oct-26 0.19 to 128.30 and Nov-26 0.27 to 139.01, while Q4-26 added 0.19 to 135.27, Winter-26 0.15 to 135.38 and Q1-27 0.12 to 135.50. None of those is a move of consequence on its own.

The shape they leave is. Q1-27 still settles above Q4-26, by 0.23 against 0.30 on Tuesday, while gas holds its Q4-over-Q1 premium at 3.50p. The two fuels have now disagreed for two sessions about which quarter is the tight one.

Yesterday’s morning index missed by about 3p and missed the other way from the day before. This report carried gas Day-Ahead indicated at 156.90p and it settled 160.50p, out 3.60; Sep-26 marked 157.90p against 161.02p and Q4-26 162.27p against 165.37p, out 3.12 and 3.10, all three under on a board that fell. Two mornings, near-identical error sizes, opposite signs, and nothing to build on in either.

The part-day system price row did better. This report published 88.55 to 214.00 for 26 August, warned that both prints pre-dated the stamp and so could only widen, and neither did: the day closed on exactly those two figures, at 03:14 and 07:14.

That is a 125.45 £/MWh spread across a single day, against 161.95 on Tuesday. Today so far reads 87.15 to 217.95, stamped 03:18 and 04:48, same warning.

The nuclear position is unchanged at 1,503 MW of impact across five units, with Hartlepool 1 now 91 days into a full 620 MW unplanned outage. September is where it stacks up: 2,530 MW of complete outages land between 31 August and 7 September, the largest Heysham 2 reactor 8 at 660 MW for 80 days from 4 September.

France adds to it. TotalEnergies reports strike action called at the Chinon plant from 28 to 31 August, on top of the climate-related restrictions already limiting reactor output.

One more direction worth checking. TotalEnergies expects stronger wind from tomorrow, but its own forecast puts wind and solar output near 10,450 MWh today and at a trough around 7,950 MWh on 28 August, roughly 1,800 below the seasonal norm of about 9,750. The recovery comes on 29 and 30 August, reaching about 12,400 MWh by 31 August.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent M+1 settled at 87.84 $/barrel on 26 August, down 0.74 or 0.8%, a second consecutive fall and a second close below 90.

TotalEnergies attributes it to renewed optimism about a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran and Oman due to hold further talks.

Coal API2 for Cal-27 was almost static, down 0.16 to $126.82/tonne.

Carbon was the day’s biggest mover in percentage terms and both schemes fell. EUA Dec-26 lost 1.74 to €82.68 and UK ETS Dec-26 1.32 to £59.64, falls of 2.1% and 2.2% against a 0.6% fall in gas.

At Wednesday’s 1.1680 sterling rate the European allowance is worth about £70.79, putting the UK scheme £11.15 a tonne below its European equivalent against £11.26 on Tuesday, so the discount narrowed slightly.

In LNG, JKM front month eased to $22.95/MMBtu from 23.32 while TTF spot slipped to 22.57 from 22.68 and NBP spot to 21.82 from 22.03. The JKM premium over TTF narrowed back to 0.38 $/MMBtu from 0.64, giving up all of Tuesday’s widening.

Henry Hub went the other way, up 4.1% to $2.81, so British gas now costs 7.8 times American gas at the same moment, against 8.2 times on Tuesday. Sterling eased to 1.1680 and 1.3593.

Commodity	Price	Change (day)
Brent Crude (M+1)	$87.84/barrel	-0.8%
Coal API2 (Cal-27)	$126.82/tonne	-0.1%
EUA Carbon (Dec-26)	€82.68/tonne	-2.1%
UK ETS (Dec-26)	£59.64/tonne	-2.2%
JKM LNG (front-month)	$22.95/MMBtu	-1.6%
TTF Gas (spot)	$22.57/MMBtu	-0.5%

Storage and Supply Outlook

TotalEnergies puts European storage at roughly 63.3% full on 24 August and still well below the level seen at this point in recent years, which is the reason the forward curve holds its premium on days the prompt eases.

The country map barely moved. Britain gained a point to 47%, and Italy at 80%, Spain 73%, France 65% and Germany 50% are all unchanged, with the Netherlands and Belgium, whose two labels overlap on the map, at 43% and 48%.

Gasunie has warned that the Netherlands is unlikely to reach its target level before winter, so the two countries at the bottom of that map are both short with ten weeks to go.

At site level Stublach holds 77%, Holford 73%, South Hook 58%, Hornsea 52% and Aldbrough 47%, with Dragon 33%, Isle of Grain 31%, Holehouse Farm 28% and Hill Top 22%. Rough and Humbly Grove remain at zero.

The arrivals schedule into North West Europe carries ten cargoes and 990 mcm out to 31 August. Six are American and account for 604 mcm, two Norwegian, one Nigerian into Dunkirk and one Russian into Montoir on 31 August.

One is British: Milford Haven took 96 mcm from the United States on 26 August. TotalEnergies reports a further South Hook cargo today and another American one on 30 August, neither yet on the schedule.

On weather, UK temperatures stay above the seasonal mean for the whole eight-day run, near 18.9C today against a mean of about 15.8C, easing to roughly 17.2C on 30 August and 16.1C on 31 August and 1 September. The latest EC46 run is broadly unchanged and cools back towards normal over the weekend rather than below it.

What This Means for Your Business

Q4-26 gas closed on 7 August at 139.23p and settled Wednesday at 165.37p. That is 26.14p a therm in thirteen trading sessions, worth roughly £8,919 a year on a 1 GWh gas load.

The last two sessions have taken 6.63p of that back from Monday’s 172.00p high, worth about £2,262 a year on the same load, the first sustained give-back of this run.

Winter-26 power has added 10.61 £/MWh since 13 August, worth about £10,610 a year on a 1 GWh electricity load, and it has been within 0.30 of 135.30 for three sessions.

The shape still matters more than the level. A business whose gas contract starts in April is looking at Summer-27 at 106.00p; one starting in October is looking at 165.37p for the same commodity, and 59.37p a therm of that gap is calendar rather than commodity.

That winter premium has narrowed for a second session, to 57.64p from 59.43p, which is the case for knowing exactly where your renewal date falls on this curve before deciding how much of it to fix and when.

On electricity the prompt has stopped arguing with the curve and started arguing with itself. Day-ahead peak rose 6.0% while every near-month forward eased, and one day of balancing put 125.45 £/MWh between the cheapest and dearest half hours. None of that reaches a headline unit rate; it lands on the contract shape and the half-hourly profile.

The far end remains a different market. Summer-28 gas at 72.34p is 44.2% of Winter-26 at 163.64p, so cover for 2028 is priced on assumptions that have nothing to do with this winter.

The watch list is short and all of it lands before 8 September. Gullfaks goes down on 30 August, Cygnus on 31 August, IUK on 1 September, Heysham 2 reactor 8 takes 660 MW off on 4 September, and Britain goes into the autumn 47% full.

For a view tailored to your consumption profile and renewal window, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 26 August 2026