UK Energy Market Report - 28 August 2026

All eleven NBP contracts rose on 27 August, the broadest single-session gain of this run, while day-ahead power fell and yesterday’s morning index under-read the gas board by more than 5p a therm.

Gas Market

NBP Day-Ahead settled at 166.50p on 27 August, up 6.00p or 3.7%, after two consecutive falls.

The whole board moved with it. Oct-26 gained most in pence, 6.23p to 168.49p, with Sep-26 up 5.87p to 166.89p, Nov-26 5.70p to 171.65p, Q4-26 5.80p to 171.17p, Winter-26 5.62p to 169.26p and Q1-27 5.45p to 167.32p. All six near contracts rose between 3.4% and 3.8%.

The far curve joined in at a fraction of the pace, Summer-27 up 3.17p to 109.17p and Winter-27 2.84p to 105.59p, with the two 2028 contracts adding barely a penny each.

The carry at the front kept narrowing through it. Sep-26 now settles 0.39p above the day-ahead, against 0.52p on Wednesday and 2.05p on Monday.

The winter premium went the other way. Winter-26 at 169.26p stands 60.09p above Summer-27 at 109.17p, up from 57.64p on Wednesday, and Q4-26 holds 3.85p over Q1-27 against 3.50p.

Britain stayed the cheapest hub in Europe but the gap closed. NBP settled 166.50p against TTF at 170.89p, narrowing the discount to 4.39p from 5.06p, with PVB at 171.33p, PEG 171.54p, THE 172.07p, Austrian VTP 174.18p and PSV 179.49p.

Supply is the reason. TotalEnergies reports total Norwegian exports nominated 15 mcm/day lower today at 320 mcm/day as maintenance starts at Sleipner, work scheduled to run until 22 September and expected to take around 11 mcm/day out for the duration.

Gassco separately cut Asgard output by 7.2 mcm/day on 27 and 28 August after a compressor fault, leaving 24.3 mcm/day available there.

The 07:00 flow table already carries it. Langeled fell 10.60 to 51.10 mcm/day and Vesterled and Flags 1.00 to 12.00, so 63.10 mcm/day from Norway against 74.70 yesterday afternoon. TotalEnergies puts today’s nomination at 65 mcm/day, and both are true at their own stamp.

Britain absorbed it by keeping gas at home rather than importing more. BBL exports to the Netherlands stopped entirely, from 15.65 mcm/day to zero, demand fell 22.92 to 134.76 mcm/day, and the system opened 4 mcm/day long with linepack 2.56 higher at 340.62 mcm.

LNG sendout is nominated unchanged at 9.70 mcm/day, 6.50 from South Hook and 3.20 from Isle of Grain. South Hook has lifted its sendout by 1.5 mcm/day over recent days after two American cargoes berthed there this week.

The card below summarises where NBP contracts settled on Thursday against the previous session.

Electricity Market

UK day-ahead baseload settled at 138.90 £/MWh on 27 August, down 1.70 or 1.2%. Day-ahead peak fell harder, 6.95 or 4.9%, to 136.06 £/MWh.

That undoes Wednesday in a single session. Peak now settles 2.84 £/MWh below baseload, having closed 2.41 above it the day before, so the crossover this report flagged as a first lasted one day.

Every forward went the other way. Sep-26 rose 3.73 to 133.10 £/MWh, the largest gain on the board, with Oct-26 up 2.86 to 131.16, Nov-26 2.67 to 141.68, Q4-26 2.73 to 138.00, Winter-26 2.29 to 137.67 and Q1-27 1.83 to 137.33.

The quarters flipped back with them. Q4-26 now settles 0.67 above Q1-27, having been 0.23 below on Wednesday, so power and gas agree again that the front of winter is the tight part.

One correction to the commentary. TotalEnergies describes UK Winter-26 power as rising to around €160.5/MWh; baseload Winter-26 settled at 137.67 £/MWh, and 160.50 is the Winter-26 peak contract’s morning offer, in pounds.

Yesterday’s morning index produced the largest gas miss this report has recorded. It carried Day-Ahead indicated at 160.95p and the day settled 166.50p, out 5.55; Sep-26 marked 161.25p against 166.89p, Q4-26 166.04p against 171.17p and Winter-26 164.53p against 169.26p, out 5.64, 5.13 and 4.73. All four were under on a board that rose across its whole width, and Winter-28, marked at 92.10p, settled 80.63p, 11.47p out the other way.

The part-day system price warning earned its place too. This report published 87.15 to 217.95 for 27 August and said both prints pre-dated the stamp so could only widen. The minimum held exactly; the maximum ran to 264.00 £/MWh at 17:48, 46.05 higher and eight hours after the edition closed.

That is 176.85 £/MWh between the cheapest and dearest half hours of Thursday, against 125.45 on Wednesday. Today so far reads 110.20 to 214.00, stamped 01:19 and 06:19, same warning.

This morning’s power index deserves the same caution. Day-Ahead is marked 9.40 lower at 129.50 £/MWh while every forward is marked higher, and Oct-26 is marked 13.35 higher at 144.51, a move roughly five times any other contract on the board and a direction rather than a price.

The nuclear position is unchanged for a third session at 1,503 MW of impact across five units. Hartlepool 1 has been fully off since 27 May, and the 91-day duration the outage table lists against it expired on 26 August without the unit returning.

The 2,530 MW of complete outages landing between 31 August and 7 September has not moved either.

France is the larger problem. TotalEnergies puts French nuclear output near 34 GW after further reactor outages, some caused by an influx of jellyfish, with low hydro reserves adding to the winter risk premium.

Wind is the swing factor into the weekend. The forecast puts wind and solar near 8,050 MWh today against a seasonal norm of about 9,800, recovering to roughly 13,000 MWh by 31 August, and gas-for-power demand is nominated 3 mcm/day higher on the day-ahead as today’s wind speeds ease.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent M+1 settled at 89.70 $/barrel on 27 August, up 1.86 or 2.1%, ending two consecutive falls and closing back above 89.

TotalEnergies frames oil as lower week-on-week on renewed efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. On the day itself the market went the other way.

Coal API2 for Cal-27 rose 2.17 to $128.99/tonne, a 1.7% gain.

Carbon was the only board to fall. EUA Dec-26 eased 0.26 to €82.42 and UK ETS Dec-26 0.64 to £59.00, falls of 0.3% and 1.1% on a day gas rose 3.7%.

At Thursday’s 1.1663 sterling rate the European allowance is worth about £70.67, putting the UK scheme £11.67 a tonne below its European equivalent against £11.15 on Wednesday, so the discount widened.

In LNG, JKM front month rose to $23.41/MMBtu from 22.95, TTF spot to 23.21 from 22.57 and NBP spot to 22.63 from 21.82. The JKM premium over TTF narrowed to 0.20 $/MMBtu from 0.38, a second consecutive narrowing.

Henry Hub added 2.8% to $2.89, leaving British gas at 7.8 times the American price at the same moment, unchanged on Wednesday. Sterling eased to 1.1663 and 1.3592.

Commodity	Price	Change (day)
Brent Crude (M+1)	$89.70/barrel	+2.1%
Coal API2 (Cal-27)	$128.99/tonne	+1.7%
EUA Carbon (Dec-26)	€82.42/tonne	-0.3%
UK ETS (Dec-26)	£59.00/tonne	-1.1%
JKM LNG (front-month)	$23.41/MMBtu	+2.0%
TTF Gas (spot)	$23.21/MMBtu	+2.9%

Storage and Supply Outlook

TotalEnergies puts European storage at roughly 63.5% full and still well below the level seen at this point in recent years, which is why the curve holds its winter premium even on days the prompt is quiet.

Britain gained two more points on the country map to 49% and Germany a point to 50%. Italy at 80%, Spain 73% and France 65% are unchanged, with the Netherlands and Belgium, whose two labels overlap on the map, at 43% and 48%, leaving Britain and the two Benelux countries at the bottom of it with ten weeks of injection season to run.

At site level Stublach holds 80%, Holford 73%, Holehouse Farm 70%, South Hook 57%, Aldbrough 54% and Hornsea 53%, with Dragon 33%, Isle of Grain 31% and Hill Top 20%. Rough and Humbly Grove remain at zero.

Holehouse Farm is the outlier there, reported at 70% against 28% on Wednesday. A 42-point move in one day is more likely a restatement than an injection, and is worth treating as one until it holds.

The arrivals schedule into North West Europe carries ten cargoes and 993 mcm out to 31 August. Four are American and account for 410 mcm, with one Norwegian into Gate, one Nigerian into Fos, one Peruvian into Eemshaven and one Russian into Montoir on 30 August.

None is British. TotalEnergies reports the second of two American cargoes berthed at South Hook yesterday, which is what lifted sendout there.

On weather, UK temperatures stay above the seasonal mean across the eight-day run but the margin closes, near 17.7C today against a mean of about 15.6C and easing to roughly 16.1C by 1 September. The latest EC46 run is cooler through the end of next week than the previous one and puts conditions back near seasonal norms.

What This Means for Your Business

Q4-26 gas closed on 7 August at 139.23p and settled Thursday at 171.17p. That is 31.94p a therm in fourteen trading sessions, worth roughly £10,898 a year on a 1 GWh gas load.

Thursday alone added 5.80p, about £1,979 a year on the same load, and it took back almost everything the two previous sessions had given away.

Winter-26 power has added 12.90 £/MWh since 13 August, worth about £12,900 a year on a 1 GWh electricity load, with 2.29 of that on Thursday.

The shape still matters more than the level. A business whose gas contract starts in April is looking at Summer-27 at 109.17p; one starting in October is looking at 171.17p for the same commodity, and 60.09p a therm of that gap is calendar rather than commodity, worth about £20,503 a year on 1 GWh.

That premium has now widened for two sessions, which is the case for splitting a renewal across tranches rather than fixing all of it on a single date.

On electricity the prompt and the curve are pulling apart again. Every forward rose while day-ahead fell and peak fell harder, and one day of balancing put 176.85 £/MWh between the cheapest and dearest half hours. None of that reaches a headline unit rate; it lands on the contract shape and the half-hourly profile.

The far end remains a different market. Summer-28 gas at 73.47p is 43.4% of Winter-26 at 169.26p, and Summer-28 power at 67.25 is 48.8% of Winter-26 at 137.67, so cover for 2028 is priced on assumptions that have nothing to do with this winter.

The watch list is short and near. Sleipner maintenance runs to 22 September and takes about 11 mcm/day of Norwegian supply with it, Heysham 2 reactor 8 takes 660 MW off on 4 September, and Britain goes into the autumn 49% full.

For a view tailored to your consumption profile and renewal window, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 27 August 2026