Daily Energy Market Report - 28th May 2026

Norwegian maintenance begins to ease and Iran talks hold, sending gas to a three-week low, but the long end of the curve ticks higher as medium-term supply constraints persist.

UK energy markets continued their gradual retreat on Thursday 28 May as two constructive signals arrived simultaneously: Norwegian field maintenance began unwinding ahead of schedule, with analysts flagging that storage injection targets were moving back within reach, and Iran-US ceasefire talks remained active despite deadlock on the key sticking points of Hormuz control and nuclear programme preservation. Brent crude fell 3.8% to around $95.80/barrel, dragging gas forward curves lower across the board. Day-ahead NBP eased to around 111.60p/therm, its lowest level in three weeks. The forward curve, though, tells a more cautious story, with Cal-28 long-dated gas ticking higher on the week as the market prices in medium-term supply constraints that near-term demand destruction cannot resolve.

Gas Market

Day-ahead NBP eased to around 111.60p/therm on Thursday, continuing the week-long drift lower from pre-bank holiday levels above 120p. June-26 contracts fell to around 114.20p, with Q3-26 at approximately 112.80p. The primary driver was the Norwegian supply picture: planned maintenance across Kollsnes, Troll and Asgard is beginning to ease, with Langeled flow nominations recovering toward more normal levels. One analyst noted storage injection targets were “within reach” if the current supply trajectory held through June.

That is the good news. The less comfortable picture is visible further along the curve. Winter-26 gas held around 116.90p, down just 2.4% on the week despite the broader spot selloff, and Cal-28 long-dated gas edged up 1.9% on the week to around 71.80p. The market is distinguishing between near-term relief from warm weather and easing maintenance, and a medium-term supply environment that remains structurally tight. QatarEnergy’s force majeure extension through mid-August, competitive Asian LNG buying, and UK storage at 10% of capacity are all features the forward curve has not chosen to ignore.

Iran ceasefire talks remain active but deadlocked on the two issues that matter most for energy markets: Tehran’s insistence on retaining sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and the question of its nuclear programme. Until those are resolved, the conflict premium stays in the back end of the curve.

Electricity Market

Day-ahead baseload power fell to around £79/MWh on Thursday, its softest level this month, as warm temperatures persisted and wind generation showed signs of recovery after a weak start to the week. Solar output remained strong. CCGT plant was called upon less as renewables covered a greater share of the generation stack, reducing the gas-to-power price signal on the prompt.

The picture further forward looks quite different. Winter-26 power held around £100/MWh, and the forward gas-power correlation remains intact: businesses fixing for winter are looking at costs roughly 25% above last year at the same point in the procurement cycle. The gap between today’s spot price and winter forwards is as wide as it has been all year, reflecting the market’s view that near-term relief is seasonal and temporary.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent crude fell to around $95.80/barrel, down 3.8%, as ceasefire optimism reasserted itself despite the lack of a deal. Markets have been tracking the Iran talks closely enough that even the absence of a breakdown is treated as supportive of a potential resolution. WTI fell in tandem to around $90.50/barrel. Oil is now down more than 16% from its March peak, a remarkable retreat driven almost entirely by shifting expectations around the Strait of Hormuz.

The ceasefire remains fragile. Tehran’s demand to retain control of Hormuz traffic is a red line for the US negotiating team, and Iran’s nuclear programme adds a further complication. A deal that resolves both would be transformative, but the market is pricing probability rather than certainty. Each session that passes without a breakdown adds a little more confidence to the soft-landing scenario.

EUA carbon eased to around €75.40/tonne as lower gas prices reduced the incentive for fuel switching, and TTF front-month gas fell to around €46.10/MWh. JKM LNG dipped modestly to $13.60/MMBtu, though the QatarEnergy supply constraint remains a limiting factor on how far the LNG complex can soften.

Commodity	Price	Change (day)
Brent Crude	$95.80/barrel	▼ -3.8%
WTI	$90.50/barrel	▼ -4.2%
EUA Carbon (Dec-26)	€75.40/tonne	▼ -1.8%
JKM LNG (front-month)	$13.60/MMBtu	▼ -1.4%
TTF Gas (front-month)	€46.10/MWh	▼ -3.0%

Storage and Supply Outlook

European storage sits at approximately 36% of capacity, tracking below last year’s level at the same point in the season. The good news is that injection rates are picking up as demand falls and Norwegian supply begins to normalise. If the current trajectory holds, the end-of-October target levels used by EU regulators as a storage benchmark become more achievable, though the margin remains thin.

UK storage at 10% is the persistent weak point. Continental storage builds are less directly relevant to the UK’s day-to-day balance, which depends heavily on Norwegian pipeline flows via Langeled and the Interconnector from Belgium. The QatarEnergy LNG force majeure through mid-August means the LNG backup is less available than usual during a period when the UK would normally be drawing on it to top up storage.

The Ofgem Q3 price cap of £1,862 per year now takes effect from 1 July, and suppliers are already updating tariff communications to customers. Businesses should note that the cap is a domestic measure; commercial rates are determined by wholesale market conditions which, as this week has shown, remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments.

What This Means for Your Business

Three consecutive sessions of falling near-term prices represent a genuine shift from the sharp rally seen through May. Day-ahead gas is down roughly 7% on the week, spot power is testing monthly lows, and the forward selling pressure shows some appetite from suppliers to lock in current levels. For businesses with prompt or short-dated exposure, that is useful near-term relief.

For those with winter or annual renewals approaching, the picture is more nuanced. Winter-26 at around 117p and forward power above £100/MWh are still elevated relative to the pre-conflict baseline. The Cal-28 uptick this week is a reminder that the long-dated market is not convinced the current easing is the beginning of a sustained downtrend. Procurement decisions made on the basis of spot weakness may leave businesses exposed if the Iran talks collapse or Norwegian maintenance proves longer than forecast.

If you are approaching a renewal in the next three months, now is a sensible time to get a view on the current market before conditions change again. To speak with one of our energy experts, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 27 May 2026