UK Energy Market Report - 29 June 2026

UK wholesale gas and electricity market update for 29 June 2026, with NBP prices, day-ahead power, Brent crude and procurement guidance.

UK wholesale energy opened the week on the front foot, with gas and power both firming as fresh supply-side tightness at home outweighed a calmer geopolitical backdrop abroad.

The split between a firm prompt and a softer forward curve remains the defining feature. Near-term contracts are being squeezed by Norwegian maintenance, a heavy nuclear outage slate and softening wind, while the back of the curve still trades at a clear discount.

Gas Market

NBP day-ahead recovered through Monday morning to around 101.30 p/therm, pushing back above the 100 mark as the system tightened despite opening 14 mcm/day long. Front-month Jul-26 firmed to roughly 100.60 p/therm, up on the day.

The move was supply-led. An unplanned outage at Norway’s Åsgard field, a process issue curtailing about 6 mcm/day and due to clear tomorrow, lent early support, although overall Norwegian exports actually rose and UK-bound flows climbed 10 mcm/day on stronger FLAGS and Langeled nominations.

Demand is edging up too. Gas-for-power burn is forecast to rise around 6 mcm/day as wind and solar soften into the back half of the week. UK LNG send-out held flat at 8 mcm/day, while European LNG arrivals slipped below the month-to-date average as a firm Asian JKM continued to pull flexible cargoes east.

Further out, the curve stayed comparatively soft. Winter-26 firmed to about 105.80 p/therm, but Cal-27 sits near 83.60 p/therm, still well below the front as the market keeps the bulk of any risk premium in the prompt rather than the forwards.

Electricity Market

UK baseload tracked gas higher, though liquidity was thin in early trade. Friday’s day-ahead settlement printed soft near £86/MWh on a renewable-heavy session, but the prompt firmed back toward £120/MWh on Monday as softer wind raised the call on gas-fired generation.

The supply backdrop stays tight. A heavy slate of nuclear outages continues, with Heysham 1, Hartlepool and both Sizewell B units among the capacity offline, leaving the system leaning harder on gas just as renewable output dips.

Wind is forecast to fall to around 4.6GW on 30 June before recovering later in the week, keeping the evening ramp as the tightest part of the day. Temperatures, already above seasonal norms, are expected to pick up again from tomorrow after a cooler weekend.

The forward curve was quietly firmer. Winter-26 baseload held near £97/MWh, while Summer-27 sat around £75/MWh, once again well below the prompt and tracking the longer-term fundamentals rather than the week’s weather.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Crude eased back. Brent slipped about 4% to $71.99 a barrel after Iran and the United States agreed over the weekend to halt recent Gulf hostilities and resume talks over the Strait of Hormuz. Prices ticked up intraday on lingering attack risk, but improved sentiment and the prospect of steadier flows kept a firm lid on the upside.

European carbon was a touch softer, with EUA allowances easing to just above €80 a tonne and the UK ETS holding near £57. Coal slipped to around $107 a tonne, while TTF gas firmed slightly to near €40.40/MWh in step with NBP.

Storage and Supply Outlook

The near-term picture is tighter than the headline price suggests. Alongside the Åsgard curtailment, UK gas storage remains low for the time of year, leaving less of a buffer against supply hiccups, and European LNG arrivals have eased below their recent average.

With Norwegian flows otherwise running well and the system comfortably supplied day to day, the main swing factors from here are summer weather, the pace of storage injections across Europe, and whether the calmer geopolitical backdrop holds.

On the policy front, Ofgem continues to weigh changes to gas grid charging aimed at making the UK a more attractive route for LNG transiting on to Europe.

What This Means for Your Business

The gap between a firm prompt and a softer forward curve is, once again, the key takeaway. If you are buying short-term flexible volume, the day-to-day market is being driven by Norwegian maintenance, nuclear outages and wind rather than the wider trend, so timing matters.

For businesses weighing longer fixed terms, the discount in Summer-27, Winter-27 and Cal-27 to the front of the curve is the more meaningful signal, and it rewards a deliberate buying strategy over a reactive one.

A single supply or geopolitical headline could move the prompt sharply in either direction, which is exactly why a clear procurement plan beats reacting to the news. To review your position and build an approach that fits your risk profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 26 June 2026