UK Energy Market Report - 30 June 2026
UK wholesale gas and electricity market update for 30 June 2026, with NBP prices, day-ahead power, Brent crude and procurement guidance.
UK wholesale energy prices firmed across the board on Monday, with both gas and power pushing higher as falling wind generation and renewed concern over the durability of the Middle East ceasefire lifted the whole curve.
The strength was broad rather than prompt-led this time, with forward contracts gaining alongside the front even as domestic supply stayed comfortable, leaving a market that is firmer but still well supplied day to day.
Gas Market
NBP day-ahead settled higher at 103.30 p/therm for 29 June, a gain of almost 5% as wind output was forecast to fall sharply, and firmed again in early trade to around 105.72 p/therm. Front-month Aug-26 followed, trading near 104.71 p/therm.
The move was led by weaker renewables and a firmer risk premium rather than any supply shortfall. The UK system opened around 5 mcm/day long this morning, and gas-for-power demand is forecast about 18 mcm/day lower day-on-day as stronger wind and solar return later in the session.
Supply remained healthy. Norwegian exit nominations held near 338.6 mcm/day according to Gassco, only marginally lower on the day, while flows to the UK rose with Langeled and FLAGS up a combined 4 mcm/day. UK LNG send-out was steady at 8 mcm/day, and European LNG arrivals climbed to around 520 mcm/day.
Further out, the curve strengthened with the front. Winter-26 firmed to about 109.01 p/therm and Summer-27 to around 81.00 p/therm, the back of the curve still trading at a clear discount to the prompt but lifted by the same geopolitical caution running through the market.
| Contract | Price (p/therm) | Change (day) |
|---|---|---|
| Day-Ahead | 105.72 | ▲ 2.3% |
| Aug-26 | 104.71 | ▲ 2.1% |
| Winter-26 | 109.01 | ▲ 2.2% |
| Summer-27 | 81.00 | ▲ 1.9% |
| Winter-27 | 83.25 | ▲ 2.4% |
Electricity Market
UK baseload tracked gas higher. The day-ahead contract settled firm near £124/MWh for 29 June on a low-wind session, with peak day-ahead around £109/MWh, though softer demand expectations and stronger renewables pointed to an easier prompt into the new session.
The supply backdrop stayed tight. A heavy slate of nuclear outages continues, with Heysham 1, Heysham 2, Hartlepool and both Sizewell B units among the capacity offline, leaving the system leaning on gas-fired generation whenever wind dips.
Wind output was forecast to fall to around 4.3GW on 30 June before recovering through the week, while French nuclear availability continues to rebuild from its heatwave-related lows, currently around 36GW and expected to exceed 50GW from 8 July. Temperatures are set to stay above seasonal norms well into July.
The forward curve firmed in step with gas. Winter-26 baseload rose to about £98/MWh, while Summer-27 held near £75/MWh, once again well below the prompt and tracking the longer-term fundamentals rather than the day’s weather.
Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities
Crude firmed on the day before easing back. Brent settled around $73.15 a barrel for 29 June, up about 1.6%, but slipped in early trade as oil markets took a calmer view despite the weekend missile exchanges between the United States and Iran and the absence of any scheduled talks in Doha.
Carbon softened, with EUA allowances easing to just under €79 a tonne and the UK ETS down to around £56. Coal firmed to roughly $108 a tonne, while TTF gas jumped about 5.6% to near €42.60/MWh in step with a firmer NBP.
| Commodity | Price | Change (day) |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $73.15/barrel | ▲ 1.6% |
| Coal API2 (Cal-27) | $108.46/tonne | ▲ 1.5% |
| EUA Carbon (Dec) | €78.78/tonne | ▼ 1.9% |
| UK ETS (Dec) | £56.24/tonne | ▼ 1.6% |
| JKM LNG (front-month) | $15.82/MMBtu | ▲ 1.9% |
| TTF Gas (front-month) | €42.60/MWh | ▲ 5.6% |
Storage and Supply Outlook
The day-to-day supply picture remains comfortable despite the firmer tone. UK Continental Shelf production is running strongly, Norwegian flows are robust and LNG send-out is steady, leaving the system modestly long even as the prompt firms.
European storage is the watch-point heading through the injection season. EU stocks stand at around 48.3% full, below this time last year, with injections continuing at a steady pace and LNG arrivals into northwest Europe rising. A firm Asian JKM continues to compete for flexible cargoes.
From here the main swing factors are summer weather, the pace of European storage refills and whether the fragile Middle East ceasefire holds, any of which could move the prompt sharply.
What This Means for Your Business
This week’s move is a reminder that even a well-supplied market can firm quickly when wind drops and geopolitical risk returns to the curve. For businesses buying flexible volume, the prompt is again being driven by renewables and headlines rather than the underlying trend, so timing matters.
For those weighing longer fixed terms, the continued discount in Summer-27 and Winter-27 to the front of the curve remains the more meaningful signal, and it rewards a planned buying strategy over a reactive one.
With the curve firmer but the fundamentals still comfortable, a clear procurement plan beats chasing the market day to day. To review your position and build an approach that fits your risk profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.
Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 29 June 2026