UK Energy Market Report - 30 September 2026

Every NBP gas contract falls on 29 September as Norwegian supply recovers, day-ahead power drops 14.11% to its lowest since 18 September, and Nov-26 takes over as the front month

The 29 September session gave back all of the previous day’s gains and more. All eleven NBP contracts settled lower. Gas day-ahead fell 7.50p to 173.00 p/therm, the lowest day-ahead settlement since at least 3 September, and Nov-26, now the front month, lost 9.10p to 176.53p. That wipes out the 2.59p it gained on 28 September three times over.

Power fell hardest at the prompt. Day-ahead baseload settled at £117.67/MWh, down £19.33 or 14.11%, its lowest since the £28.00 of 18 September, while day-ahead peak rose £1.80 to £127.33 and is back above baseload for the first time since 24 September. Ten of the eleven baseload forwards fell.

The board has also changed shape. Oct-26 expired on 29 September, and with it Q4-26 and Winter-26 have dropped out of the tables, so Nov-26 and Q1-27 now carry the coming winter. At 09:38 this morning every gas and baseload contract is marked higher, with day-ahead power offered £42.33 up for a day when the wind is forecast to drop away.

Gas Market

The fall was steepest at the front of the winter and faded along the curve. Nov-26 lost 9.10p to 176.53p, Dec-26 8.98p to 178.42p, Jan-27 8.95p to 179.50p and Q1-27 8.69p to 175.27p. Day-ahead fell 7.50p to 173.00p, a drop of 4.16%.

Further out the moves halved and then halved again. Q2-27 fell 4.71p to 133.39p, Summer-27 4.51p to 128.06p and Winter-27 3.98p to 124.01p. The 2028 contracts lost about 2p each, Summer-28 to 81.75p and Winter-28 to 88.95p, and Summer-29 slipped 0.77p to 69.25p.

So the coming winter again did the moving. Q1-27 fell 8.69p against 3.98p for Winter-27, and set against the 22 September close Nov-26 is now 9.16p lower and Q1-27 7.91p lower, while Winter-27 is down 3.65p and Winter-28 is 0.26p higher. Nov-26 had finished 28 September just 0.06p below its 22 September level; almost the whole of the week’s fall on that contract came in this one session.

Commentary this morning puts the move down to three things: improving Norwegian supply, forecasts of mild weather and softer near-term demand. It also notes that China left LNG out of its latest tariff relief, which the market read as more cargoes staying available to the rest of the world.

Every European hub fell, and Britain fell least, so it is no longer the cheapest. France’s PEG dropped 12.45p to 171.28p, Italy’s PSV 12.09p to 180.62p, Austria’s VTP 11.15p to 177.66p, the Dutch TTF 11.10p to 173.74p, Germany’s THE 10.91p to 174.65p and Spain’s PVB 10.76p to 176.79p, against 7.50p for NBP.

That puts NBP 1.72p above PEG, having been 3.23p below it a session earlier, and cuts its discount to TTF to 0.74p from 4.34p. This time both halves point the same way: Britain got dearer relative to every hub in the table, and now sits second-cheapest of the seven.

The marks published here on 29 September got the front right and the back wrong. They showed the front lower and the far end higher; everything settled lower still. Day-ahead was indicated at 179.75p and settled 6.75p under it. Summer-27 was marked at 138.00p and settled at 128.06p, 9.94p lower, and Winter-27 at 128.50p against 124.01p.

At 09:38 today every gas contract is marked higher. Day-ahead is indicated at 175.40p, up 2.40p, Nov-26 at 177.65p, Q1-27 at 175.95p, Summer-27 at 129.20p and Winter-27 at 125.50p. The written commentary describes the front as marginally softer this morning; the table has it higher, and the table is what is quoted here. The Summer-29 mark of 76.89p is 7.64p above its settlement and is better read as the absence of a price than as one.

Norwegian supply is back near full strength. Exit nominations are running at 311.5 mcm/day, up 26.3 on the 285.2 reported here on 29 September, as more maintenance returns to service. Commentary puts 29 September production at 282.2 mcm/day, up 8% on the day, with 35.5 mcm/day flowing directly to Britain. Troll remains reduced by a combined 12 mcm/day from its compressor failure and lower production, down from the 35 mcm/day reported yesterday, and those volumes are expected back on the day-ahead.

On the 07:00 read Langeled is delivering 42.00 mcm/day, against 40.00 at the same stamp on 29 September, and Vesterled is at zero on both. The commentary describes flows to Britain as up 32 mcm/day; set against the same-time reads, most of that recovery had already arrived by yesterday morning.

Demand has picked up. System demand is 127.81 mcm/day on the 07:00 read, against 102.39 at the same time yesterday, and gas-for-power demand is up 17 mcm/day on the day-ahead as the wind drops. Britain is exporting 19.60 mcm/day to Belgium through IUK, up from 13.70, with BBL at zero. UKCS production is 93.20 mcm/day from 90.60, and LNG send-out is 3.20 at Isle of Grain and 5.00 at South Hook. The system opened about 22 mcm/day long.

Electricity Market

Day-ahead baseload settled at £117.67/MWh, down £19.33 or 14.11%. Day-ahead peak rose £1.80 or 1.43% to £127.33, which puts it £9.66 above baseload after sitting £11.47 below it on 28 September and £25.21 below on 25 September.

The last seven sessions of day-ahead baseload read £198.43, £161.75, £152.55, £161.23, £130.14, £137.00 and £117.67. With the £28.00 of 18 September now out of that window, the range across them has narrowed to £80.76 from £170.43.

The forward curve followed gas down, again with the front doing most. Nov-26 baseload lost £5.62 to £145.85, Dec-26 £5.16 to £143.60, Jan-27 £4.82 to £148.91 and Q1-27 £4.64 to £145.91. Q2-27 fell £2.61 to £105.60, Summer-27 £2.43 to £102.70 and Winter-27 £1.36 to £104.88. Summer-28 lost £0.80 to £70.69 and Winter-28 £0.37 to £80.17, while Summer-29 did not move from £66.58.

Oct-26 baseload expired on 29 September. It was offered at £142.80 on the morning of expiry, and commentary puts its final settlement at roughly £140/MWh, against £146.69 on 28 September. The same commentary gives Winter-26 baseload at £144.6/MWh, a figure the settlement tables no longer carry.

The peak forwards fell by similar amounts. Dec-26 peak lost £6.21 to £168.19, Jan-27 £5.26 to £171.24, Nov-26 £5.12 to £172.35 and Q1-27 £5.07 to £168.06. Winter-27 peak slipped £1.63 to £122.86. Nov-26 peak is 18.2% above Nov-26 baseload, and commentary this morning notes that the width of that gap is drawing interest from battery storage operators, who earn their return from it.

The 29 September power marks matched the closest print this report has carried. Day-ahead baseload was offered at £117.65 and settled at £117.67, two pence out. The forwards were long again: Nov-26 was shown at £155.00 and settled £145.85, and Winter-27 at £108.90 against £104.88. The last report said the rest of the curve was marked higher; all of it settled lower.

At 09:38 today day-ahead baseload is offered at £160.00, up £42.33, for delivery on 1 October, when combined wind and solar generation is forecast to fall to about 8,300 MWh from about 15,400 today. Nov-26 is offered at £147.31, Q1-27 £147.37 and Winter-27 £105.50, all above their closes.

The imbalance market settled 29 September with a maximum System Buy Price of £222.00 at 17:18 and a minimum System Sell Price of £40.91 at 23:18. The part-day row published here yesterday read £195.00 and £104.62; the maximum finished £27.00 higher and the minimum £63.71 lower.

The 28 September row has been revised in one respect: the £350.22 maximum is now stamped 17:44 rather than 17:48, with the price unchanged. The 26 and 27 September rows are unchanged. Today’s part-day row reads £214.95 at 08:18 and £22.92 at 00:18, with most of the day still to come.

Today is the windy day and the rest of the week is not. Combined wind and solar is forecast near 15,400 MWh today against a seasonal norm near 10,500, then about 8,300 on 1 October, 9,300 on the 2nd and 6,300 on the 3rd, before recovering towards 10,200 by 7 October. The written commentary describes today’s wind as near seasonal levels; the forecast chart has it well above.

Temperatures are forecast above the seasonal mean on every day to 7 October: about 18.5°C today against a mean near 13°C, then 14°C to 15°C for the rest of the period.

The nuclear outage table is unchanged at 2,255 MW. Heysham 1 reactor 1 (610 MW) was scheduled to return on 29 September and is still listed on its original twenty-one-day duration, so its return is not yet confirmed. Hartlepool 2 is out at 620 MW until 3 October and Heysham 2 reactor 8 at 660 MW. A separate 112 MW reduction on Heysham 1 reactor 1 is planned from 3 October for 96 days.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent settled at $102.59/barrel on 29 September, down $2.69 or 2.56%, more than undoing the previous session’s $0.96 gain. Sterling eased 0.0023 against the dollar to 1.3229, so in sterling terms the barrel fell a little less, 2.39%, to about £77.55.

Fuel fell almost across the board. Brent, coal and JKM all settled lower, and EUA carbon edged down. The exceptions were Henry Hub, up five cents, and the UK carbon allowance, which jumped.

UK ETS Dec-26 rose £2.90 or 4.92% to £61.86, while EUA Dec-26 slipped €0.22 to €85.95. At 1.1666 the UK allowance is worth about €72.17, so its discount to the European price narrowed to €13.78 from €17.44 in a single session. A dearer UK allowance adds directly to the cost of running gas-fired plant in Britain, and that cost feeds through to power prices.

Asia’s LNG premium over Britain widened. JKM fell $0.64 to $25.43/MMBtu, but NBP spot fell further, $1.03 to $22.89, taking the gap to $2.54 from $2.16. TTF spot fell $1.50 to $23.02, so Britain’s spot discount to the Dutch hub is down to $0.13. Coal API2 Cal-27 fell $1.40 to $134.19/tonne.

Commentary this morning has oil marginally firmer amid a continuing stalemate in the Middle East. It also reports that US forces have completed their withdrawal from their remaining bases in Iraq, a move welcomed in Tehran, while noting that the withdrawal began in 2024 and is not connected to the conflict with Iran.

Storage and Supply Outlook

British storage fell another two points to 42% on the country map, still the emptiest of the seven readings shown and eleven points below the 53% of 23 September. The continent did not move: France at 81%, Italy 86%, Spain 73%, Germany 57% and the two overlapping Benelux labels at 57% and 61% were all unchanged. Commentary puts European storage as a whole at roughly 71%.

The draw was spread across three sites. Hill Top fell from 11% to 3%, and has now gone from 18% to 3% in two sessions. Aldbrough fell five points to 32% and Stublach five to 51%. Isle of Grain and South Hook slipped a point each, to 41% and 77%, and Hornsea edged up a point to 71%. Dragon at 33%, Holehouse Farm 70% and HolFord 75% were unchanged; Rough is empty and Humbly Grove sits at 1%.

The cargo schedule again has no British delivery. Ten cargoes carrying about 898 mcm are due at northwest European terminals between today and 4 October, four of them at Gate and the rest at Eemshaven, Dunkirk, Fos and Montoir. Seven come from the United States, one from Algeria and one, a 101 mcm delivery to Montoir on 1 October, from Russia; the tenth, at Fos on 3 October, has no origin listed. British LNG send-out is forecast at about 8 mcm/day today.

So Britain is running on Norwegian pipeline gas and its own storage. With Norwegian maintenance largely cleared, the pipeline side has room to hold up, but Britain’s storage is being drawn while every continental reading stands still, and the unusually warm weather that has kept demand low peaks today before easing back towards normal.

What This Means for Your Business

With Winter-26 off the board, the reference points for this winter are Nov-26 at 176.53 p/therm and £145.85/MWh, and Q1-27 at 175.27 p/therm and £145.91/MWh. At wholesale that is about 6.0 p/kWh for gas and 14.6 p/kWh for power, before network costs, levies and supplier margin.

For buyers still to fix this winter, 29 September settled lower than any other session in the past week. Nov-26 gas is 9.16p below its 22 September close and Q1-27 power £3.11 lower. But the market is marked higher this morning on every contract, and Nov-26 gas has already moved between 176.53p and 190.71p inside six sessions. A price like this can be gone by the next settlement, which is why we recommend buying in tranches across several dates rather than waiting for the single best one.

Buyers looking at the winter after have had a quieter week. Winter-27 gas fell 3.98p on the day and is 3.65p below its 22 September close, and Winter-27 power is £0.55 lower over the same stretch. The coming winter carries the risk and the discount; the next one has barely moved. If you are pricing a contract that runs into 2027 and 2028, current business gas prices reflect that flatter curve.

For power, the day-ahead market shows again what an unhedged position looks like. Baseload settled at £117.67 and is offered at £160.00 for tomorrow, a £42.33 swing driven by one day of wind.

The picture from here is two-sided. Norwegian supply is close to full strength and the next week is forecast mild. Against that, British storage is at 42% and falling while the continent holds steady, no LNG cargo on the schedule is British, and the wind is forecast to fall below normal for most of the next week. That leaves the curve sensitive to the first cold spell.

If you want to know what these movements mean for your own contract dates and consumption profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report, 29 September 2026