UK Weekly Energy Market Report - Week of 16 June 2026

Gas and power tumble as a US and Iran ceasefire drains the war premium, while a heatwave and weak wind keep the power prompt supported.

It was a week of sharp falls across UK wholesale energy as the Middle East risk premium that had inflated prices through early June drained out of the market. A US and Iran ceasefire and the reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz removed the threat that had been hanging over global supply.

Gas led the way down, with the NBP front-month shedding around 11% over the week. Power fell too, though a heatwave and weak wind kept the prompt better supported than the wider trend would suggest.

Gas Market Review

The week opened with a slump. Monday saw the NBP front-month fall almost 11 p/therm from the prior Friday as the prospect of an end to the US and Iran conflict, plus a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, stripped the supply-disruption premium out of the curve. Winter-26 shed close to 9% in a single session.

Prices kept drifting lower through midweek. By Wednesday the front-month had settled near 99 p/therm and day-ahead around 102 p/therm, with the selling slowing as the market found a footing. Friday closed near 100.50 p/therm on the day-ahead, leaving the front-month down roughly 11% on the week.

Fundamentals reinforced the move. Norwegian flows held firm, UK LNG send-out was steady at around 8 mcm/day, and European storage kept filling through injection season. Warmer weather and strong solar cut gas-for-power burn for parts of the week, easing the call on the system.

The forward curve softened alongside the prompt. Winter-26 ended the week near 104 p/therm and Cal-27 around 86.50 p/therm, both well below where they sat a week earlier as the war premium left the back end.

Electricity Market Review

Power followed gas lower but with more resistance on the prompt. Monday’s day-ahead baseload settled near £108/MWh and the front-month fell about £6/MWh, tracking the slide in gas and crude.

Underneath, the system stayed tight. A heatwave lifted cooling demand while wind ran below normal for much of the week, leaving gas plant to carry a heavy share of the load. A large nuclear outage stack added to the squeeze, with both Sizewell B units, Torness 1 and Hartlepool capacity offline.

Solar provided a daily counterweight, supplying strong output through the middle of the day and capping prices over the midday peak. The tension showed up most in the evening ramp, when panels dropped off and the system leaned on gas and imports just as French nuclear curtailments thinned the interconnector cushion.

Further out, the curve eased in line with gas. Front-month and Q3 power ended the week lower, while Summer-27 baseload held near £76/MWh as the back of the curve tracked fundamentals rather than the weather.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Crude was the standout mover. Brent tumbled around 12.5% over the week to settle near $77 a barrel as the easing in Hormuz shipping fears and the prospect of more barrels returning to market unwound the war premium. WTI fell in step to about $73.80.

European carbon bucked the trend, firming around 2% to roughly €81 a tonne. TTF gas dropped about 10% to near €42/MWh, its weakest since late April, while Asian JKM eased back toward $15/MMBtu as the supply scare faded.

Storage and Supply Outlook

EU gas storage continued to refill through the week, climbing comfortably above 60% as cheaper gas encouraged buyers to build stock ahead of next winter. The injection pace remains the key gauge of how tight, or comfortable, the market heads into the colder months.

With Norwegian supply running well and LNG arrivals into north-west Europe steady, the supply side looks well covered for the season. The main swing factors from here are summer weather, the speed of storage builds, and whether the calmer geopolitical backdrop holds.

The Week Ahead – Procurement Outlook

The week leaves buyers in a better spot than they were a fortnight ago. The risk premium that pushed gas and power higher through early June has largely unwound, and the forward curve now sits materially lower across Winter-26 and Cal-27.

That said, the falls were driven by a single geopolitical thread. If the ceasefire frays or Hormuz traffic stalls again, the premium can return as quickly as it left. The prompt is also being held up by heat and weak wind, so short-term flexible buyers should not read the headline falls as a calm market.

For businesses weighing fixed terms, the softer curve opens a window worth assessing against your renewal timeline and risk appetite. A staged, deliberate approach beats chasing the market in either direction. To review your position and build a strategy that fits, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Read next: For the following week’s market analysis, read our UK Weekly Energy Market Report, Week of 22 June 2026.