Week of 19-23 May 2026 | Gas, Power, Oil & Procurement Outlook

UK wholesale energy markets delivered one of the most volatile weeks of 2026 during 19-23 May, as a dramatic Monday opening day-ahead gas averaged 126.68p/therm across the week, up 15.7% on the prior week’s average, gave way to a mid-week retreat as US–Iran diplomatic progress began to erode the geopolitical risk premium that had built through the preceding weeks.

Despite the intra-week sell-off, forward gas and power contracts finished the week firmly higher, underpinned by a heavy slate of Norwegian field outages and an unusually large number of UK nuclear generation units offline simultaneously.

Gas Market Review

The week of 19-23 May opened with a sharp move higher, with day-ahead gas trading to a multi-week high near 127p/therm on Monday as the Iran-US-Israel standoff around the Strait of Hormuz showed no signs of abating and Norwegian maintenance at multiple fields, including Kollsnes, Troll and Asgard, tightened near-term supply simultaneously.

From that Monday peak, markets spent the remainder of the week gradually unwinding the risk premium as US President Trump indicated progress in Iran negotiations, though without a definitive resolution.

By Friday’s close, the Day-Ahead contract had retreated from its Monday high to settle around 123.7p/therm, still a meaningful 4.8% gain on the prior Friday’s 118.0p close.

The forward curve showed a similar pattern of strength despite the intra-week volatility.

The June 2026 contract closed Friday near 120.8p/therm (+3.3% on the week), while Q3-26 settled at approximately 120.5p/therm (+3.1%). Winter 2026 ended at approximately 122.0p/therm, a weekly gain of 5.3% as the combination of Norwegian outage risk and nuclear outages kept forward buyers engaged.

The Calendar 2027 contract settled near 94.7p/therm (+2.9% on the week), suggesting the market is pricing in some structural supply concern beyond the current seasonal disruptions.

Norwegian supply nominations recovered partially through the week, with flows near 289 mcm/day by the week’s close, constrained versus seasonal norms but an improvement from mid-week lows as some of the Kollsnes maintenance wrapped up.

TTF, the Continental European gas benchmark, ended the week near €49.40/MWh, having tracked NBP through the week’s price swings.

Electricity Market Review

UK power tracked gas higher across the forward curve, with the day-ahead baseload contract averaging approximately £116/MWh across the five sessions, up 12.6% on the prior week’s average, before easing from mid-week peaks as UK solar output strengthened and some wind generation returned.

The day-ahead contract closed Friday near £106/MWh as near-term demand softened with improving weather.

Forward contracts proved considerably more resilient.

The June 2026 baseload contract settled Friday at approximately £101.3/MWh (+2.3% on the week) and Winter 2026 baseload closed near £102.3/MWh (+3.6% on the week).

The forward market was supported throughout by a notably heavy UK nuclear outage schedule: units at Hartlepool Reactor 1 (return delayed beyond 20 May), Torness Reactor 1, Heysham 2 Reactor 8, and both Sizewell B reactors were all offline at various points during the week, reducing baseload availability and keeping forward contracts elevated relative to where gas prices alone would have set them.

UK ETS carbon allowances averaged £51.87/tonne across the week (+3.6% on the prior week average), reflecting higher demand for compliance allowances as gas-fired generation carried a greater share of the generation stack.

EU ETS allowances (December 2026) ended the week near €75.80/tonne, broadly flat (+0.3% week-on-week) as improving continental renewable output offset the upward pressure from UK thermal generation.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Crude oil had a more subdued week than gas, with Brent ending Friday near $104.68/barrel, a fall of approximately 1.7% on the week, as partial progress in US-Iran diplomatic contacts allowed some unwinding of the Hormuz-related risk premium that had driven crude to multi-week highs earlier in May.

WTI tracked broadly in parallel, settling near $100.50/barrel by Friday’s close.

The global LNG market remained tightly supplied. JKM, the Asian spot LNG benchmark, held near $18.80/MMBtu as Asian demand stayed firm and Queensland supply concerns from the Woodside facility, where industrial action had been threatened from 20 May kept a floor under spot LNG prices.

Any confirmed supply disruption from Australia would compound the already elevated LNG risk premium from QatarEnergy’s extended force majeure, which runs through to mid-June.

Commodity	Price (Fri close)	Change (week)
Brent Crude	$104.68/barrel	-1.7%
WTI	$100.50/barrel	-1.7%
EUA Carbon (Dec-26)	€75.80/tonne	+0.3%
JKM LNG (front-month)	$18.80/MMBtu	—
TTF Gas (front-month)	€49.40/MWh	—

Storage and Supply Outlook

European gas storage moved modestly higher during the week, reaching approximately 37% of capacity by 24 May, a slight improvement on the prior week’s 36% level, but still 18 percentage points below the five-year seasonal norm of 55%.

The injection season is slowly gaining pace as temperatures begin to normalise following an unusually cold May, though the EU still needs to refill at approximately +0.25 percentage points of capacity per day, sustained and without interruption to meet the mandatory 80% storage target by 1 November.

Norwegian nominations of 289 mcm/day provided the backbone of UK supply through the week, with UK LNG send-out at approximately 12 mcm/day and UKCS production broadly steady.

Partial resolution of the Kollsnes and Troll maintenance schedules through the latter part of the week helped ease prompt supply pressure and contributed to the Friday retreat in day-ahead prices.

However, Asgard maintenance remained live, and any fresh Norwegian disruption would quickly re-tighten the near-term supply picture.

Warmer weather arriving into the final days of the week provided some relief on the heating demand side and should help accelerate the injection pace into June.

However, the storage deficit is now significant enough that refill alone is unlikely to close the gap to seasonal norms without LNG imports running at or near capacity throughout the summer. Supply security heading into winter 2026/27 remains the defining risk for European energy markets.

The Week Ahead – Procurement Outlook

The week of 19-23 May 2026 demonstrated that the UK wholesale market remains acutely sensitive to geopolitical developments.

The 15.7% surge in the weekly average day-ahead gas price followed by a partial but incomplete retreat, which illustrates both the scale of the risk premium embedded in near-term prices by Hormuz-related uncertainty, and the fragility of that premium to any positive diplomatic signal.

This pattern of spike-and-partial-reversal is likely to continue for as long as the underlying conflict remains unresolved.

UK markets reopened this week after the Spring Bank Holiday on Monday 26 May.

Initial trading reflected the further easing in Brent crude (near a five-week low of $99/barrel) as Iran negotiations continued, but Norwegian outages and the nuclear generation deficit are expected to keep forward power contracts supported.

The forward curve’s resilience, with Winter 2026 finishing the week at 122p/therm, suggests the market is not yet pricing in a full resolution of supply-side risks.

For UK energy buyers, the near-term contracts carry the highest volatility and the most geopolitical risk premium.

Longer-dated tenors (Calendar 2027 and beyond) remain meaningfully lower than near-curve prices and represent more stable hedging opportunities for businesses with contract visibility beyond the next 12 months.

With European storage still 18 percentage points below seasonal norms and the injection season running against the clock, prices across the curve are likely to remain elevated relative to historical averages throughout summer 2026.

If you are approaching a contract renewal or would like to review your procurement strategy in the context of current market conditions, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

For the following week's energy market analysis, read our Weekly Energy Market Report – Week of 26 May 2026.

For the following week’s energy market analysis, read our Weekly Energy Market Report – Week of 2 June 2026.