UK Weekly Energy Market Report - Week of 12 May 2026

Week of 12-16 May 2026 | Gas, Power, Oil & Procurement Outlook

UK energy markets opened the week of 12-16 May 2026 on the front foot, with near-term contracts maintaining elevated levels throughout a five-day session shaped by three concurrent pressures: a weather pattern significantly colder than seasonal norms across northwest Europe, ongoing Norwegian gas supply disruptions, and a rising geopolitical risk premium from continued escalation around the Strait of Hormuz.

The near-curve tightened sharply while longer-dated contracts posted more modest gains, deepening an already pronounced state of backwardation across the UK gas and power forward curves.

Gas Market Review

UK NBP gas prices moved firmly higher across the near-term curve during the week of 12–16 May, with the June 2026 contract settling at approximately 116.9p/therm by Friday’s close — up around 8.2% on the week from the prior Friday’s close of approximately 108p. The Day-Ahead contract ended the week near 118.0p/therm as persistent cold temperatures across northwest Europe continued to generate heating demand well beyond what would typically be expected in mid-May.

The week’s bullish tone was set on Monday when markets reopened with a gap higher following weekend reports of renewed Norwegian field maintenance. The Jun-26 contract added more than 5p on the Monday session alone, and while mid-week saw some consolidation and profit-taking on longer-dated tenors, near-term strength proved durable through to Friday’s close.

The Winter 2026 contract settled the week at approximately 115.9p/therm, a gain of around 5.1% on the week. Further along the curve, the Calendar 2027 contract held near 92.0p/therm — a modest 2.1% weekly gain as the market priced out much of the cold weather premium for longer-dated tenors. This widening spread between near-curve and long-dated contracts reflects genuine near-term tightness rather than a structural shift in forward price expectations.

Key drivers across the week included temperatures forecast 5°C or more below seasonal norms into the second half of the week; lower-than-expected Norwegian pipeline flows, with several fields undergoing simultaneous maintenance; UK LNG send-out unchanged at approximately 12 mcm/day with no major new arrivals scheduled into South Hook or Dragon terminals; and growing concern about potential strike action at Woodside’s Australian LNG facility, with industrial action threatened from 20 May. Continental European TTF began the week near €46/MWh and tracked NBP higher, ending the week around €47.40/MWh.

Electricity Market Review

UK power prices tracked gas firmly higher across the near curve. The June 2026 baseload contract ended the week near £99/MWh, a gain of approximately 7.5% week-on-week, while the Winter 2026 baseload contract settled around £98.70/MWh, up roughly 4.4% on the week.

Day-ahead baseload opened Monday at £93.81/MWh before rising through the week as gas-market strength and periods of reduced wind output combined to push power prices higher.

Gas-for-power demand remained elevated throughout, with gas nominations running at approximately 23 mcm/day, consistent with CCGT plants doing the heavy lifting in the generation mix.

Wind generation averaged around 10–11 GW across the week (approximately 32-35% of the GB mix), with output dipping sharply on one or two days as the UK sat within a blocking pattern that suppressed wind across much of the country.

Nuclear output contributed a steady base of around 3.5 GW, providing some ballast to the generation stack, but with wind at or below average and gas-fired plant filling the gap, the power price took its direction almost entirely from the gas market.

EUA carbon allowances (December 2026) also provided upward support to power prices, beginning the week at €77.18/tonne and trading firmer through the five-day period on the combined effect of higher energy demand and a supportive macro commodity backdrop.

The backwardation visible in the gas market was replicated in power: near-term contracts rose materially while Summer 2027 power remained considerably lower, reflecting the market’s assessment that the current cold spell is a temporary weather phenomenon rather than a structural shift in demand.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent crude was the standout mover in the broader commodity complex during the week of 12-16 May. The near-month contract traded from around $104/barrel at the Monday open to close Friday near $106.50/barrel, a gain of approximately 2.9% on the week, as tightening supply concerns from the Strait of Hormuz maintained a geopolitical risk premium across the oil complex.

With the Iran-US standoff showing no signs of near-term resolution, disruption to normal shipping flows through the Strait continued to underpin crude prices at levels above where fundamentals alone might suggest.

WTI crude tracked broadly in parallel, ending the week around $102.20/barrel following a strong Friday session in which the front-month contract closed up over 4% on the day as geopolitical headlines re-escalated.

EUA carbon allowances (December 2026) began the week at €77.18/tonne and ended near €78.50/tonne, tracking the broader energy complex higher as elevated gas-fired generation kept compliance demand supported. JKM LNG (Asian front-month) closed the week near $13.80/MMBtu; while specific daily data were limited, Queensland strike risk and persistent Asian buying appetite kept the global LNG risk premium elevated throughout the week.

Commodity	Price (Fri close)	Change (week)
Brent Crude	$106.50/barrel	+2.9%
WTI	$102.20/barrel	+3.5%
EUA Carbon (Dec-26)	€78.50/tonne	+1.7%
JKM LNG (front-month)	$13.80/MMBtu	—
TTF Gas (front-month)	€47.40/MWh	—

Storage and Supply Outlook

European gas storage ended the week of 12-16 May at approximately 36% capacity, significantly below the five-year seasonal norm of around 55% for mid-May.

The EU is tracking more than 19 percentage points below the five-year average for this point in the injection season, raising serious questions about whether the continent can reach its 80% storage target ahead of winter 2026/27.

The UK’s own storage position remained particularly tight.

UK gas storage, primarily the Rough facility operated by Centrica, was sitting close to 10% of capacity at the end of the week, one of the lowest relative levels in Europe.

With no significant LNG arrivals scheduled into South Hook or Dragon terminals in the near term, the UK’s reliance on Norwegian pipeline flows and real-time spot LNG cargoes has rarely felt more acute.

UK LNG send-out held at approximately 12 mcm/day throughout the week, providing a steady but insufficient buffer against any supply disruption.

The injection season typically sees European facilities refilling through April to October, but this year’s colder-than-normal spring temperatures have meant that gas which would otherwise have been injected has instead been consumed for heating demand.

Every day that temperatures remain below seasonal norm further delays the injection pace and deepens the structural deficit to five-year averages.

Forecasters suggest temperatures could normalise or briefly exceed seasonal norms by late May, which would help ease injection concerns, but storage levels will remain a key market risk factor and a price floor throughout summer 2026.

The Week Ahead – Procurement Outlook

The week of 12-16 May 2026 confirmed a familiar pattern for this year: near-term gas and power prices remain highly sensitive to weather and supply shocks, while longer-dated contracts have proved more resilient, reflecting the market’s expectation that the current tightness is primarily weather-driven rather than structural.

For businesses currently on fixed-price contracts, this week’s moves will have limited immediate impact.

For those approaching a renewal or considering locking in a forward contract, the picture is more nuanced.

Near-curve prices (June, Q3, Winter 2026) have risen sharply since the start of May, while Calendar 2027 and Summer 2027 tenors remain substantially lower, a backwardated curve that historically rewards buyers willing to look beyond the next 12 months when market conditions allow.

The unresolved risks heading into next week are significant: Woodside LNG strike action is threatened from 20 May; the Strait of Hormuz situation shows no sign of near-term resolution; and European storage refill is running well behind schedule.

All three factors argue for continued caution on near-term price direction.

A meaningful warm weather reversal could provide some near-term relief on day-ahead and prompt contracts, but supply-side risks remain asymmetric to the upside for as long as storage and LNG uncertainty persists.

If you are approaching a contract renewal in the next three to six months, now is a good time to seek specialist procurement advice before committing to a fixing decision. Speak to one of our energy consultants today to review your options and current exposure to the forward curve.

For more recent analysis, read our Weekly Energy Market Report – Week of 26 May 2026.