UK Weekly Energy Market Report, Week of 22 June 2026
22 – 26 June 2026
Gas and power drift lower as the Middle East risk premium keeps unwinding, while a heatwave and weak wind spark a mid-week spike in day-ahead power.
It was a calmer week across UK wholesale energy, with gas and power drifting gently lower as the Middle East risk premium that drove the prior week’s plunge kept bleeding out of the curve. A preliminary Iran ceasefire held and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz improved, leaving the market with little reason to rebuild the premium.
The falls were modest after the heavy selling a week earlier. Underneath the soft headline, a heatwave and a spell of weak wind lifted day-ahead power sharply in the middle of the week, a reminder that the prompt is still being driven by weather as much as fundamentals.
Gas Market Review
NBP traded with a soft tone all week. After the previous week’s collapse, the selling slowed to a drift, with the front of the curve easing only gradually as the geopolitical premium continued to fade rather than fall away in one move.
A vessel strike near the Strait of Hormuz lifted prices briefly midweek, but the spike faded almost as fast as it arrived once it became clear shipping was still flowing. By Friday the day-ahead had settled near 98 p/therm, its weakest since mid-April, leaving gas down around 1% on the week.
Fundamentals stayed comfortable. Norwegian flows recovered above 330 mcm/day as maintenance eased, UK LNG send-out held steady near 8 mcm/day, and European storage kept filling. Strong solar and a warmer spell trimmed gas-for-power burn for parts of the week, easing the call on the system.
The forward curve softened in step with the prompt. Winter-26 ended the week near 102 p/therm and Cal-27 around 85.50 p/therm, both a touch lower than a week earlier as the back of the curve tracked the calmer geopolitical backdrop.
| Contract | Price (p/therm) | Change (week) |
|---|---|---|
| Day-Ahead | 98.00 | ▼ 2.5% |
| Jul-26 | 98.50 | ▼ 0.5% |
| Q3-26 | 99.00 | ▼ 0.5% |
| Winter-26 | 102.00 | ▼ 1.9% |
| Cal-27 (long-dated) | 85.50 | ▼ 1.2% |
Electricity Market Review
Power was the more eventful market. While the wider curve eased with gas, day-ahead baseload spiked mid-week, settling above £114/MWh on Thursday as a heatwave lifted cooling demand and wind output dropped under a high-pressure system.
The squeeze was sharpened by supply. French nuclear curtailments thinned the interconnector cushion just as British wind faded, leaving gas plant to carry a heavier share of the load through the evening peak. Solar provided a daily counterweight, capping prices through the middle of the day before panels dropped off.
The prompt eased again into Friday as forecasts pointed to cooler, windier conditions over the weekend. Across the full week, day-ahead baseload averaged near £105/MWh and the market closed lower, down around 1.4% week-on-week.
Further out, the curve drifted with gas. Winter-26 baseload ended near £94/MWh and Summer-27 around £75/MWh, the back of the curve still trading at a clear discount to the prompt and tracking fundamentals rather than the week’s weather.
Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities
Crude was the standout mover. Brent fell around 11% over the week to settle near $68 a barrel, drifting back toward pre-conflict levels as the ceasefire held and the war premium unwound. A brief rally to $75 on the Hormuz vessel strike faded within the session, with traders showing little conviction in a sustained disruption. WTI tracked lower to about $65.50.
Carbon was quieter. EU allowances softened slightly to roughly €80.56 a tonne, while the UK scheme firmed marginally to around £57, leaving UKAs at their usual discount to the EU market. TTF gas eased about 5% to near €40/MWh, while Asian JKM held around $15/MMBtu as the supply scare faded.
| Commodity | Price (Fri close) | Change (week) |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $68.00/barrel | -11.5% |
| WTI | $65.50/barrel | -11.0% |
| EUA Carbon (Dec-26) | €80.56/tonne | -0.5% |
| JKM LNG (front-month) | $15.38/MMBtu | n/a |
| TTF Gas (front-month) | €40.00/MWh | -4.8% |
Storage and Supply Outlook
EU gas storage kept refilling through the week but remains the watch-point heading into the colder months. Stocks sat around 47% full by week-end, below this time last year and behind the five-year seasonal average, with the injection pace the key gauge of how comfortable the market heads into winter.
The supply side looks well covered for the season. Norwegian flows have recovered, maintenance is lighter than in recent years, and LNG arrivals into north-west Europe are steady. The main swing factors from here are summer weather, the speed of storage builds, and whether the calmer geopolitical backdrop holds.
The Week Ahead – Procurement Outlook
The week leaves the forward curve a little lower again, extending the unwind that began a fortnight ago. Winter-26 and Cal-27 both sit below where they started the week, and the softer tone gives buyers a steadier backdrop than the volatility of early June.
The caveat is the same as last week. These falls rest on a single geopolitical thread, and if the ceasefire frays or Hormuz traffic stalls, the premium can return quickly. The mid-week power spike also shows how fast the prompt can move when heat and weak wind combine, so flexible buyers should not read the soft headline as a quiet market.
For businesses weighing fixed terms, the lower curve keeps a window open worth assessing against your renewal timeline and risk appetite. A staged, deliberate approach beats chasing the market in either direction. To review your position and build a strategy that fits, speak to one of our energy consultants today.
Previous report: UK Weekly Energy Market Report, Week of 16 June 2026