UK Weekly Energy Market Report - Week of 26 May 2026

Week of 26-29 May 2026 | Gas, Power, Oil & Procurement Outlook

UK wholesale energy markets underwent a sharp reversal during the shortened week of 26-29 May 2026, with gas prices shedding between 5% and 11% across the forward curve as Norwegian supply recovered, temperatures climbed above seasonal norms and a brief US-Iran ceasefire rumour deflated the risk premium that had built throughout much of May.

The week was also notable for Ofgem’s announcement that the household energy price cap will rise 13% from July, the highest level since early 2024, a stark reminder that wholesale volatility feeds directly through to UK energy bills.

Gas Market Review

UK NBP gas prices retreated across the board during the four-day trading week (markets were closed Monday 25 May for the Spring Bank Holiday).

The Day-Ahead contract settled near 110.5p/therm by Friday’s close, down around 10.7% on the prior Friday, as an improving supply picture and milder temperatures removed the urgency that had sustained near-term prices at elevated levels through May.

The move lower was sharp but orderly. Norwegian gas nominations recovered to approximately 295 mcm/day as the Oseberg field returned around 26 mcm/day of capacity, leaving the UK system running some 13 mcm/day long by mid-week.

That surplus, combined with above-seasonal temperatures and stronger renewable output, was enough to drive the Day-Ahead contract through several sessions of consecutive declines.

Forward contracts fell by a more modest degree. The July 2026 contract ended the week at 110.8p/therm (-6.0% on the week), Q3-26 settled near 111.2p (-6.0%) and Winter 2026 closed at 113.7p (-5.1%). Calendar 2027 eased to 90.5p (-3.6%), suggesting the market held a meaningful risk premium for the medium term rather than repricing the entire curve.

TTF settled Wednesday near €46.19/MWh before closing the week at approximately €46/MWh.

The week’s sharpest single-day move came on Thursday 28 May, when reports of a US, Iran peace framework accelerated the sell-off, briefly driving gas and oil prices to multi-week lows.

The move proved short-lived: Iranian officials dismissed the framework reports within hours, and prices partially recovered into Friday. The episode illustrated how sensitive the market remains to geopolitical signals.

A significant caveat to this week’s price weakness: Norwegian oil and gas workers are threatening strike action from 5 June.

If industrial action proceeds, gas flows into Europe could be sharply disrupted at a moment when EU storage remains well below seasonal norms. Forward contracts partially reflected this risk, limiting how far Winter 2026 and Cal-27 could fall even as near-term prices declined sharply.

Electricity Market Review

UK power prices moved lower on the prompt but showed considerably more resilience in the forward market. The Day-Ahead baseload contract settled Thursday at £103.08/MWh – down £3.73 on the session, as strong solar generation (meeting approximately 40% of afternoon demand on some days) and near-seasonal wind output reduced reliance on gas-fired plant. By Friday, Day-Ahead baseload had eased to approximately £100-101/MWh.

The forward curve was notably more resilient than gas, supported by a sharp rise in carbon allowance prices.

The Winter 2026 baseload contract settled Friday at approximately £100.30/MWh (-1.5% on the week), while Cal-27 was essentially unchanged (+0.1%) at £82.77/MWh.

The decoupling of power from gas reflected the influence of EUA carbon prices, which rose to four-month highs this week and provided a structural floor under forward power contracts that would otherwise have fallen further in line with gas.

Nuclear generation continued to constrain baseload availability, with several units remaining offline simultaneously.

The combination of strong renewables on some days and persistent nuclear absence created intra-day volatility on the prompt even as the general direction for forward contracts was sideways to lower.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent crude had one of its worst weeks of 2026, falling from approximately $104/barrel at the prior week’s close to settle below $91/barrel by Friday, a decline of approximately 13% in four trading sessions. WTI fell in parallel, closing the week near $86.60/barrel (-13.8% on the week). The primary driver was Thursday’s US, Iran peace framework rumour, which triggered a single-session decline of 5.3% in Brent to $94.29/barrel; Thursday’s partial recovery gave way to further selling on Friday as markets continued to price in a potential Hormuz reopening scenario.

In sharp contrast to the collapse in oil and gas prices, EUA carbon allowances (December 2026) rose to four-month highs, settling near €79.50/tonne by Friday, a weekly gain of approximately 4.9%. Carbon’s outperformance relative to the broader energy complex was notable and is likely linked to ongoing EU carbon market structural factors rather than near-term supply dynamics. JKM LNG (Asian front-month) held near $18.23/MMBtu as Asian demand remained firm.

Commodity	Price (Fri close)	Change (week)
Brent Crude	$90.80/barrel	-13.3%
WTI	$86.60/barrel	-13.8%
EUA Carbon (Dec-26)	€79.50/tonne	+4.9%
JKM LNG (front-month)	$18.23/MMBtu	–
TTF Gas (front-month)	€46.00/MWh	–

Storage and Supply Outlook

European gas storage continued to improve, reaching approximately 38% of capacity by the end of the week, a slight gain on the prior week’s 37% level, but still around 17 percentage points below the five-year seasonal norm of 55%.

The improved injection pace this week reflected both milder weather (reducing demand and freeing up more gas for injection) and higher Norwegian flows following the Oseberg return.

The UK’s supply picture was the most comfortable it has been for several weeks. Norwegian nominations at 295 mcm/day, UKCS production holding near 90 mcm/day, and LNG send-out at approximately 12 mcm/day combined to leave the system running long.

Under normal circumstances this would suggest further near-term price weakness is possible.

However, the threat of Norwegian strike action from 5 June is the most significant immediate risk to European gas supply. Norwegian gas supplies around 30% of UK annual gas consumption; industrial action at key processing and export facilities could quickly eliminate this week’s supply surplus and reverse the price declines seen across the curve.

Markets are watching closely. If the strike goes ahead, it will be the dominant price driver heading into June.

The Week Ahead – Procurement Outlook

The week of 26-29 May saw the first meaningful pull back in UK gas prices since the Hormuz-driven rally began in early May, and buyers watching the forward curve will welcome some relief. However, context matters: the Ofgem price cap announcement confirmed that bills are rising 13% in July regardless of recent wholesale price moves, and the Norwegian strike threat from 5 June could reverse this week’s improvement within days.

For businesses with near-term contract renewals, prices are modestly lower than they were a week ago, but Winter 2026 is still trading near 114p/therm and forward power near £100/MWh, both significantly above the levels seen through 2024 and early 2025. The forward curve’s limited response to this week’s prompt price weakness, Cal-27 essentially flat for the week, suggests the market is holding a meaningful risk premium for the medium term that is unlikely to disappear without a definitive resolution to either the Hormuz situation or the Norwegian supply risk.

The key variables to watch this week are: the outcome of the Norwegian strike ballot (5 June), any further development in US, Iran talks, and whether EU storage injection continues to accelerate with warmer weather. Each has the potential to move prices materially in either direction.

If you are approaching a contract renewal or want to assess your current exposure to the forward curve, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

For the following week's energy market analysis, read our Weekly Energy Market Report – Week of 2 June 2026.

Read next: For more recent analysis, read our Weekly Energy Market Report – Week of 8 June 2026.

Previous weekly report: Weekly Energy Market Report – Week 22, 2026