UK Weekly Energy Market Report - Week of 8 June 2026
Norwegian outages and a Middle East risk premium drove a mid-week spike before Iran-US peace hopes pulled gas and oil back by Friday.
A volatile week for UK energy. Gas and power climbed sharply through the middle of the week as Norwegian supply outages stacked up against a Middle East risk premium, then reversed into Friday when reports of a draft Iran-US peace deal pulled the whole complex lower. NBP day-ahead settled the week at 113.50p/therm, down 2.0% on the prior Friday, despite touching 124p on Thursday. Oil told the real story, with Brent shedding roughly 11% as the war premium unwound.
Gas Market Review
NBP day-ahead opened the week firm and rallied through Thursday, peaking near 124p/therm. A compressor failure at Norway’s Troll field cut roughly 30 mcm/day of supply, while outages at Aasta Hansteen and Oseberg pulled aggregate Norwegian flows down toward 281 mcm/day. Low wind output through the middle of the week added to gas-for-power demand and reinforced the bid. The picture flipped on Friday. Reports of a 14-point draft agreement between the US and Iran, including a commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, eased the geopolitical premium that had built across the complex. Day-ahead closed the week at 113.50p, down 2.0% week-on-week. The forward curve moved far less than spot. Front-month July settled at 111.91p, Winter-26 held at 117.49p, off less than 1% on the week, and Cal-27 barely moved at 92.81p. That persistent backwardation, with the far curve sitting well below near-term contracts, tells you the market still reads the current tightness as temporary rather than structural.
| Contract | Price (p/therm) | Change (week) |
|---|---|---|
| Day-Ahead | 113.50 | ▼ 2.0% |
| Jul-26 (front month) | 111.91 | ▼ 2.5% |
| Winter-26 | 117.49 | ▼ 0.8% |
| Cal-27 (long-dated) | 92.81 | ▼ 0.3% |
Electricity Market Review
Power tracked gas but carried its own wind story. Day-ahead baseload settled Friday at £106.67/MWh, down 2.1% on the week. Strong wind generation early in the week had capped spot prices, but a lull through Wednesday and Thursday lifted reliance on gas-fired plant and dragged day-ahead higher in sympathy with NBP. Improving wind and solar forecasts into the weekend took some of that heat back out. Forward power eased in line with gas. July sat at £99.10/MWh, Winter-26 at £101.88/MWh and Cal-27 at £82.42/MWh. The shape mirrors the gas curve almost exactly: near-dated contracts carrying a premium for current supply risk, the back end pricing in a calmer balance.
Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities
Oil was the headline move of the week. Brent had started near $97/barrel on fears of a wider Middle East conflict, but the draft Iran-US agreement sent it tumbling more than 4% on Friday alone to settle around $86.50, a fall of roughly 11% across the week. WTI followed to around $83. Carbon held firmer, with EUA December contracts near €77/tonne as the gas-linked power complex stayed supported. Asian LNG eased, with JKM at $18.86/MMBtu, and European TTF sat near €45/MWh.
| Commodity | Price (Fri close) | Change (week) |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $86.50/barrel | -11.2% |
| WTI | $83.20/barrel | -10.8% |
| EUA Carbon (Dec-26) | €77/tonne | +1.8% |
| JKM LNG (front-month) | $18.86/MMBtu | — |
| TTF Gas (front-month) | €45/MWh | — |
Storage and Supply Outlook
European gas storage sits just over 40% full, with injections running around 9% behind the same point last year. That gap is the number to watch. The EU still has an interim filling target to meet before winter, and a slower injection pace keeps a floor under summer prices even when day-to-day demand is soft. The LNG arrival schedule into north-west Europe is heavy and led by US cargoes, which has helped offset the Norwegian outages, though send-out had dipped sharply earlier in the period. With Norwegian maintenance now easing, pipeline flows should recover over the coming weeks.
The Week Ahead – Procurement Outlook
The week was a clean demonstration of how quickly a geopolitical premium can build and then unwind. For buyers, the key point is that the back of the curve, Winter-26 and Cal-27, barely moved through all the mid-week drama. That is where the value sits for anyone fixing longer term. If the Iran-US de-escalation holds, expect the near curve to keep softening toward the back end. If it breaks down, the Strait of Hormuz premium returns fast. Either way, the far curve at sub-93p gas and sub-£83 power looks attractive against current spot. Businesses with renewals in the next few months should be ready to move on dips rather than waiting for a clear trend to form. To talk through how this week’s moves affect your contract timing, speak to one of our energy consultants today.
Previous report: UK Weekly Energy Market Report – Week of 2 June 2026
For the following week’s energy market analysis, read our Weekly Energy Market Report – Week of 16 June 2026.
More recent analysis: read our UK Weekly Energy Market Report, Week of 22 June 2026.