UK Weekly Energy Market Report - Week of 29 June 2026

Gas and power firm through the week, recovering off late-June lows as summer heat and weak wind lift demand and the market steadies after the post-ceasefire slump.

UK wholesale energy turned higher over the week of 29 June, recovering from the multi-week lows reached at the end of June. After the sharp sell-off that followed the Israel-Iran ceasefire, the market found a floor and firmed as early-summer heat, weak wind and steady demand tightened the near-term balance.

The recovery was broad. Gas led the way and dragged the power curve higher with it, while Brent crude clawed back some of its late-June losses. The move set the stage for a far more dramatic start to July, when fresh attacks in the Strait of Hormuz sent the prompt spiking again in the following week.

Gas Market Review

NBP recovered steadily through the week. The day-ahead, which had sagged to around 98 p/therm at the end of the previous week, climbed back to close near 107 p/therm by Friday 3 July, a gain of roughly 9% as demand firmed and the geopolitical discount partially rebuilt.

The driver was demand rather than supply. A spell of early-summer heat and persistently weak wind lifted gas-for-power burn, tightening the day-to-day balance even as the physical system stayed comfortable. Norwegian flows held firm above 330 mcm/day, UK LNG send-out was steady near 8 mcm/day, and European storage continued to refill.

The forward curve firmed with the prompt. Winter-26 rose to around 111 p/therm by Friday, up close to 9% on the week, as the market repriced the tighter near-term outlook, while front-month Aug-26 closed near 107.6 p/therm.

The back of the curve was steadier. Cal-27 held around 80 to 81 p/therm, little changed on the week, with long-dated prices tracking fundamentals rather than the near-term weather and keeping the curve’s characteristic discount to the front intact.

Electricity Market Review

Power tracked gas higher across the curve. Day-ahead baseload was volatile, swinging with wind and demand through the week, but the firmer trend was clear in the forwards, with Winter-26 baseload rising to around £99.60/MWh by Friday, up roughly 6% on the week.

The supply backdrop stayed tight. A heavy slate of nuclear outages continued, with both Sizewell B units, Heysham and Hartlepool capacity offline, leaving the system leaning harder on gas-fired generation whenever wind faded. Solar offered a midday counterweight but dropped away into each evening peak.

Further out, Summer-27 baseload held near £75.70/MWh, broadly flat on the week and still trading at a clear discount to the prompt, in line with the calmer long-dated gas curve.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Crude recovered. Brent climbed around 6% over the week to settle near $72 a barrel by Friday, clawing back part of the steep late-June sell-off as demand held and the market steadied. WTI followed higher.

Carbon was little changed, with EU allowances holding around €80.60 a tonne and the UK scheme near £56.30, leaving UKAs at their usual discount to the EU market. Gas benchmarks firmed alongside NBP, with TTF back up towards €44/MWh and Asian JKM near $16.30/MMBtu as demand and competition for cargoes edged higher.

Storage and Supply Outlook

European gas storage kept refilling but remains the key watch-point into winter. Stocks passed the halfway mark in early July, though the refill pace stayed behind the same point last year, keeping some tension in the forward curve despite the comfortable near-term picture.

The supply side looks well covered for the season. Norwegian flows are robust, maintenance is manageable, and LNG arrivals into north-west Europe remain steady. From here the main swing factors are summer weather, the speed of storage builds, and the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Week Ahead – Procurement Outlook

The week closed with the curve higher than it started, reversing part of the late-June slide. For buyers, the recovery is a reminder that the post-ceasefire lows were a window rather than a new normal, and that near-term prices remain highly sensitive to weather and geopolitics.

That sensitivity was underlined almost immediately. As the new week opened, fresh attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz drove the prompt sharply higher again, a stark illustration of how quickly a settled market can reprice. Flexible buyers should treat any calm as an opportunity to plan rather than a signal to wait.

For those weighing fixed terms, the steadier back of the curve, still at a discount to the front, remains the more meaningful signal and continues to reward a staged, deliberate approach. To review your position and build a strategy that fits your renewal timeline and risk appetite, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Weekly Energy Market Report – Week of 22 June 2026