Weekly Energy Market Report - Week 29

Gas and power spike mid-week on a renewed Strait of Hormuz risk premium and Norwegian outages, easing into Friday but still closing the week firmly higher.

UK wholesale energy prices ended the week of 6 July firmly higher, driven by a fresh geopolitical risk premium at the front of the curve. Gas and power spiked mid-week to multi-week highs as renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz combined with Norwegian supply outages, before easing back on Friday as pipeline flows recovered and LNG arrivals strengthened.The net picture was a market that closed the week well above where it began. The NBP day-ahead settled at 117.30 p/therm on Friday 10 July, up close to 10% on the week, but the two-way price action was the real story, with a sharp rally into midweek partly unwound by Friday as fundamentals reasserted themselves.

Gas Market Review

NBP had a volatile week with a clear upward bias. The day-ahead opened firm after a weekend escalation in the Middle East, then jumped through Tuesday and Wednesday, settling at 117.25 p/therm on 8 July and around 121.50 p/therm on 9 July as a Strait of Hormuz risk premium was compounded by unplanned Norwegian outages at the Ormen Lange and Oseberg fields. Dutch TTF day-ahead pushed above €50/MWh, a one-month high, at the peak of the move.The rally faded into the close. By Friday 10 July the day-ahead had eased back to settle at 117.30 p/therm, down around 3.5% on the session, as Norwegian exports recovered to about 322 mcm/day, up roughly 5% on the day, European LNG deliveries strengthened to around 490 mcm and softer weather revisions took some heat out of demand. Even after that pullback, the day-ahead still closed the week up close to 10% against the prior Friday.The forward curve followed the same path. Winter-26 firmed to around 118.75 p/therm by Friday, up roughly 7% on the week, while front-month Aug-26 closed near 118 p/therm. The move reflected the tighter near-term balance and the rebuilt geopolitical premium rather than any change in the underlying seasonal picture.The back of the curve was steadier. Cal-27 held around 82 p/therm, broadly flat on the week, with long-dated prices continuing to track fundamentals rather than the near-term weather and geopolitical noise, and keeping the curve’s characteristic discount to the front intact.

Electricity Market Review

Power tracked gas higher across the week. Day-ahead baseload was choppy, swinging with wind and demand, but settled at £106.95/MWh on Friday 10 July, easing on the day alongside gas after a firmer midweek. The stronger trend was clearest in the forwards, with Winter-26 baseload rising to around £104.60/MWh by Friday, up roughly 5% on the week.The supply backdrop stayed tight. A heavy slate of nuclear outages continued, with both Sizewell B units, Hartlepool and Heysham capacity offline, leaving the system leaning harder on gas-fired generation whenever wind faded. French nuclear added to the tightness, with the 1.3 GW Golfech 2 reactor and the Chooz 2 unit both offline for parts of the month on high cooling-water temperatures, which supported French gas-fired demand and lent indirect support to neighbouring markets.Further out, Summer-27 baseload firmed to near £78/MWh, up around 3% on the week but still trading at a clear discount to the prompt, in line with the calmer long-dated gas curve.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Crude firmed with the wider risk premium. Brent climbed around 5% over the week to settle near $76 a barrel by Friday, supported by the Strait of Hormuz tensions given the waterway carries close to a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil. WTI followed higher.Carbon was mixed. EU allowances eased around 2% to about €79.20 a tonne, while the UK scheme held broadly flat near £56.40, leaving UKAs at their usual discount to the EU market. Gas benchmarks firmed alongside NBP, with TTF day-ahead back up towards €48/MWh, up around 10% on the week, and Asian JKM near $17.57/MMBtu, up close to 8%, as competition for flexible cargoes intensified.

Storage and Supply Outlook

European gas storage kept refilling but remains the key watch-point into winter. Stocks stood around the halfway mark in early July, with the refill pace still running behind the same point last year, keeping tension in the forward curve despite a comfortable near-term physical picture.The supply side is otherwise well covered for the season. Norwegian flows recovered strongly into the week’s end, LNG arrivals into north-west Europe remained steady, and the UK system stayed well supplied. From here the main swing factors are the durability of the Middle East escalation, Norwegian availability, the French and UK nuclear schedules, the speed of storage builds and the extent of the summer heat.

The Week Ahead – Procurement Outlook

The week of 6 July was a textbook example of how quickly a well-supplied market can reprice on geopolitics. Gas rallied sharply into midweek on a Strait of Hormuz premium and Norwegian outages, then gave back part of the move by Friday as supply recovered, yet still closed the week close to 10% higher. That two-way volatility is exactly what catches reactive buyers out.For flexible buyers, the message is to watch the Middle East situation and the UK and French nuclear picture closely, but to avoid chasing an illiquid, headline-driven spike, as the Friday pullback shows how fast the premium can drain when fundamentals stay comfortable. The following week underlined the point, with prices swinging lower then rebounding again on renewed regional tensions.For those weighing fixed terms, the steadier back of the curve, still at a discount to the front, remains the more meaningful signal and continues to reward a staged, deliberate approach. To review your position and build a strategy that fits your renewal timeline and risk appetite, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Weekly Energy Market Report, Week of 29 June 2026

Read next: For the following week’s energy market analysis, read our Weekly Energy Market Report, Week of 13 July 2026.

For more recent analysis, read our Weekly Energy Market Report, Week of 27 July 2026.