Weekly Energy Market Report - Week 31
Gas grinds higher while day-ahead power falls more than 10%, as an oil sell-off on Iran de-escalation runs into a tightening winter supply picture.
The last week of July split the energy complex in two. UK gas finished the week higher than it started, while day-ahead power fell by more than a tenth, and forward power barely moved at all.
Oil set the tone on the Monday. Brent dropped 8.42 $/barrel in a single session after President Trump called off an imminent strike on Iran, and the whole risk premium that had built through July came out of the market at once.
Gas followed oil down for two days, then reversed hard mid-week on weaker LNG and a thinner supply outlook for winter. Here is how the week of 27 to 31 July played out for UK business energy buyers.
Gas Market Review
NBP Day-Ahead opened the week at 139.30 p/therm on Monday and closed it at 142.00p on Friday, a gain of 2.70p or 1.9% across the five sessions.
That flat-looking net move hides a real round trip. The contract fell to 135.75p by Tuesday’s close, the low of the week, then jumped to 146.85p on Wednesday before settling back.
Tuesday’s weakness was an oil story. Wednesday’s recovery was a supply one.
European LNG was the trigger. Nominated deliveries into Europe fell to roughly 290 mcm/day mid-week, and July arrivals across the continent finished at 8.91 bcm, around 18% below June and 28% below July 2025.
Norwegian flows went the other way and cushioned the move. GASSCO nominations climbed steadily through the week, from about 325.4 mcm/day on Monday to 329.2 mcm/day by Friday, with UK terminal deliveries rising alongside them.
The forward curve firmed more consistently than the prompt. Q4-26 added 2.14p on the week to 146.90p and Winter-26 gained 1.64p to 143.31p, both finishing above where the prompt sat.
For anyone buying gas for the coming winter, that ordering matters. The market is pricing this winter as the tight point, not the current shoulder period.
The step beyond it is the striking part. Winter-26 closed at 143.31p while Summer-27 finished at 93.39p, a drop of roughly 50p per therm once you clear the next heating season.
The card below summarises where NBP contracts finished the week.
| NBP Contract | Price (p/therm) | Change (week) |
|---|---|---|
| Day-Ahead | 142.00 | ▲ 2.70 (+1.9%) |
| Front month (Sep-26) | 144.28 | n/a |
| Q4-26 | 146.90 | ▲ 2.14 (+1.5%) |
| Winter-26 | 143.31 | ▲ 1.64 (+1.2%) |
| Summer-27 (long-dated) | 93.39 | n/a |
Prices are Friday 31 July 2026 settlement. Change column measures Monday 27 July close to Friday 31 July close. The front month rolled from Aug-26 to Sep-26 during the period, so no comparable weekly change is shown. Source: TotalEnergies Daily Market Review and daily market settlement data.
Electricity Market Review
UK day-ahead baseload went the opposite way to gas. It settled at 121.36 £/MWh on Monday and finished the week at 108.19 £/MWh, down 13.17 £/MWh or 10.9%.
Day-ahead peak fell harder, ending Friday at 81.27 £/MWh, below the baseload price. When peak trades under baseload, solar is doing the work in the middle of the day.
The intraday numbers show how uneven the week was. Tuesday’s within-day range ran from minus 10.00 £/MWh to 179.44 £/MWh, a spread of nearly 190 £/MWh inside a single trading day.
Wind averaged around 5.6 GW across the week, below seasonal norms, having started the week marginally above normal before easing from Wednesday.
Nuclear was the offsetting constraint. Roughly 3.1 GW was unavailable on Monday, rising to about 3.3 GW by Tuesday, through a mix of unplanned outages and planned maintenance.
Forward power ignored the prompt weakness almost entirely. Winter-26 baseload finished the week around 121 £/MWh against 121.22 £/MWh on Monday, and Q4-26 held near 123 £/MWh.
That divergence is the single most useful thing in this week’s data. A day-ahead price falling 10.9% while the winter contract sits flat tells you the softness is weather, not a change in the fundamental winter position.
Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities
Brent was the week’s main event. It settled Monday at 88.36 $/barrel after that 8.42 $/barrel collapse, bottomed at 84.09 $/barrel on Tuesday, then clawed back to 90.12 $/barrel by Friday.
Measured Monday close to Friday close that is a 2.0% gain. Measured against the prior Friday’s 96.78 $/barrel it is a fall of nearly 7%.
The recovery came as the market re-priced the odds. Talks with Iran were confirmed for the following Monday, but with no deadline attached and the Strait of Hormuz still unresolved.
Carbon drifted lower on both sides of the Channel. EUA Dec-26 eased 1.3% on the week to €81.26/tonne, and UK ETS Dec-26 fell 1.3% to £59.09/tonne, keeping the UK contract at its persistent discount to the European market.
| Commodity | Price (Fri close) | Change (week) |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude (M+1) | $90.12/barrel | +2.0% |
| EUA Carbon (Dec-26) | €81.26/tonne | -1.3% |
| UK ETS (Dec-26) | £59.09/tonne | -1.3% |
| Coal API2 (Cal-27) | $124.91/tonne | n/a |
| JKM LNG (front-month) | $21.45/MMBtu | n/a |
| TTF Gas (day-ahead) | €58.35/MWh | n/a |
Friday 31 July 2026 settlement. Weekly change measured against Monday 27 July close where a comparable settlement is available.
Storage and Supply Outlook
EU gas storage moved from 55.4% full on 26 July to 56.15% by 29 July, and reached 57.11% by the end of gas day 2 August. That is roughly 11 percentage points behind the same point last year.
The pace is the problem, not the level. Injections averaged around 2.4 TWh/day through July, about 20% below the equivalent rate in July 2025.
With European LNG arrivals down 28% year on year, there is very little slack left to make that gap up before the heating season starts.
UK site storage remains thin and uneven. South Hook sits at 84% and Stublach at 71%, but Hornsea is only 34% full, and both Rough and Humbly Grove are recorded at zero.
Britain therefore goes into this winter leaning almost entirely on Norwegian pipeline flows and prompt LNG cargoes. That is precisely why Winter-26 held firm while the prompt sold off.
The Week Ahead, Procurement Outlook
Three things are worth watching in the first full week of August.
Wind generation peaks on Wednesday before easing back below seasonal norms. Temperatures peak over the first few days then fall sharply to below seasonal normal ahead of the weekend. And roughly 1.9 GW of nuclear comes off through the month, with Hartlepool 2 from 7 August, Heysham 1 from 17 August and Torness 1 from 21 August.
All three point the same way for power. Anyone renewing an electricity contract in the next few weeks is buying into a market with less spare cover, not more, whatever the day-ahead print says.
The gas position is more interesting. That 50p per therm gap between Winter-26 and Summer-27 means a single fixed price on a two or three year deal averages one expensive winter across two much cheaper years.
If your volume is large enough, splitting the purchase into tranches lets you take the cheaper back seasons now and leave the winter position open. If it is not, the timing of when you fix matters more than usual this year.
The one genuine wildcard is Iran. The talks carry no deadline, and if they stall, the risk premium that came out of oil in a single session on 27 July can go back in just as quickly, taking gas with it.
For a view tailored to your consumption profile and renewal window, speak to one of our energy consultants today.
Previous report: Weekly Energy Market Report, Week of 13 July 2026
For more recent analysis, read our Weekly Energy Market Report, Week 33.
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