UK Energy Market Report - 14 October 2026

Winter gas rises for a sixth day and is now 15% dearer than a week ago, though prices are easing a little this morning

Wholesale gas rose for the sixth day in a row on Tuesday 13 October. The main contract for this winter closed at 216.83p a therm, 15% higher than it was on Tuesday 6 October.

Electricity moved with it. Every power contract from next month to 2029 closed higher, and the price of fixing electricity for this winter is up almost 15% on the week.

Colder weather on the way, reduced Norwegian supply and continued attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz all pushed prices up. This morning the market has eased a little, with most gas and power contracts trading a few pounds below the 13 October close.

Gas Market

The Nov-26 contract, the main reference for this winter, rose 7.13p on Tuesday to 216.83p a therm. That is almost exactly the size of the rise on Monday 12 October, and it takes the gain since Tuesday 6 October to 28.26p. Every session in that run closed higher.

The rest of the winter moved by the same amount. December closed at 219.29p and January at 220.57p, still the dearest month. Gas for delivery the next day jumped 8.50p to 209.00p, as forecasts showed temperatures in north-west Europe falling as much as 3.8°C below normal by 19 October.

Next year’s contracts are now rising faster than they were. Summer-27 gained 5.03p to 157.21p and Winter-27 5.31p to 149.70p, against rises of under 2p on Monday 12 October. Over the week Summer-27 is up just over 10%, so businesses with contracts starting next April are paying more for the same cover than they would have a week ago.

Prices have eased slightly this morning. Shortly after 9:30, Nov-26 was indicated around 211.1p and the day-ahead contract around 205.0p, both a few pence below the 13 October close. These are early indications, not closing prices, and they can change a lot by the end of the day.

Norway is where the supply risk sits this week. An unplanned problem at the Kårstø processing plant has been extended into tomorrow, and total Norwegian capacity restrictions rose to 38.8 million cubic metres a day today. Flows into Britain through the Langeled and Vesterled pipelines were about 20 million cubic metres a day lower this morning than yesterday afternoon.

Britain is still the cheapest major gas market in north-west Europe. Day-ahead gas closed at 209.00p here against around 217p at the Dutch TTF hub and 222p in Italy. That price gap keeps gas flowing out of Britain to Belgium, and it means demand on the continent pulls British prices up too.

Electricity Market

Forward electricity followed gas higher. Nov-26 baseload rose £5.52 to £173.79/MWh and Q1-27 £4.93 to £176.13/MWh. January is still the dearest month at £184.97. Compared with Tuesday 6 October, Nov-26 is up £22.09 and Q1-27 £20.90.

Next-day power rose £26.07 to £152.57/MWh. Part of that is the higher gas price, because gas-fired power stations usually set the price in Britain. The rest is the wind, which is starting to ease after a strong spell. This morning next-day power was offered around £150, a little below the 13 October close.

The weather is the thing to watch. Wind output is forecast to fall below the seasonal norm by the end of this week and to stay low into next week, while temperatures dip below normal. Less wind and colder weather means more gas burned for power, and that normally pushes next-day prices up.

Britain’s nuclear fleet is still short of full output. Heysham 2 unit 8 and Heysham 1 unit 1 are both off for planned work, three other units are running at reduced output, and another short Heysham reduction is planned from 18 October. That leaves less low-cost power on the system just as the wind drops.

The balancing market shows how quickly prices can swing within a day. On Tuesday 13 October the system buy price reached £209.91/MWh in the early evening, while the lowest sell price was just 9p a megawatt hour at midday. This morning the buy price has already touched £263.00/MWh. Businesses on flexible or pass-through contracts feel these swings most, because part of their bill follows these short-term prices.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Oil eased on Tuesday. Brent for December closed at $105.69 a barrel, down 0.9%, though it was firmer again this morning as Houthi attacks kept supply worries alive. Reports suggest Iran is using new tactics to target ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Carbon slipped after the jump on Monday 12 October. The UK allowance fell 0.9% to £65.92 a tonne and the EU allowance 0.3% to €88.05. An EU-UK summit has been set for 20 November, where linking the two carbon markets is expected to be on the agenda. A link would be likely to pull the UK price up towards the EU level over time, which would add to the cost of gas-fired power.

Asian LNG rose 3.9% to $29.61/MMBtu and is now about $0.90 above Dutch gas, so Asian buyers are outbidding Europe for flexible cargoes. Coal for 2027 also rose, to $144.53 a tonne. Sterling was steady against the euro at 1.1840.

Storage and Supply Outlook

Britain’s storage sites are about 62% full, up a point on yesterday. Germany is around 59% full, while France and Italy are much better placed at 86% and 88%. Across Europe, stocks remain well below where they were this time last year with winter only a couple of weeks away.

LNG deliveries to Britain are still low, at around 8 million cubic metres a day. Elsewhere in north-west Europe, at least eight cargoes are due between 16 and 18 October, most of them from the United States, heading to terminals in Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and France.

Britain’s system opened this morning about 9 million cubic metres a day long, meaning there was more gas than needed. Demand was around 152 million cubic metres a day, lower than yesterday. North Sea production is steady at about 95 million cubic metres a day, and Britain is still exporting around 16 million cubic metres a day to Belgium.

In short, Britain has enough gas day to day. The pressure on prices comes from outside: lower Norwegian flows, low European storage, competition with Asia for LNG and the risk to shipping in the Middle East.

What This Means for Your Business

The reference points for this winter are now Nov-26 at 216.83p a therm and £173.79/MWh, and Q1-27 at 215.70p and £176.13/MWh. At wholesale that is roughly 7.4 p/kWh for gas and 17.4 to 17.6 p/kWh for electricity, before network costs, levies and supplier margin.

Here is what the week means in cash. The 28p a therm rise on Nov-26 gas is worth almost 1 p/kWh. For a business using 500,000 kWh of gas a year, that is roughly £4,800 a year more than the same contract would have cost on 6 October. On electricity, the £22/MWh rise is about 2.2 p/kWh, or around £5,500 a year on 250,000 kWh. If your business electricity contract renews this winter, these are the numbers that matter.

A market that has risen six days running can fall back quickly, and this morning’s softer prices show that. That is why a set buying plan helps: decide your target price in advance and you can act on a dip instead of chasing the market. For larger sites, a flexible purchasing contract lets you buy in several smaller blocks so that no single day sets your whole price.

The risks run both ways. A calmer Middle East, Norwegian plants returning to full output or a milder forecast could take some of the recent gains back out. Against that, the wind is due to drop from the weekend, temperatures are falling and Europe still has less gas in storage than usual.

If you want to know what these movements mean for your own contract dates and consumption, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report, 13 October 2026